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Interesting statistical thought

My brother recommended that I read a few sports-related excerpts from the book "The Drunkard's Walk: How Randomness Rules Our Lives" by Leonard Mlodinow. One of the four excerpts included the following paragraph, which I thought was interesting in how you could relate it to the Wings.

A few years after Tversky's paper appeared, the Nobel Prize-winning physicist E. M. Purcell decided to investigate the nature of streaks in the sport of baseball. As I mentioned in chapter 1, he found, in the words of his Harvard colleague Stephen Jay Gould, that except for Joe DiMaggio's fifty-six-game hitting streak, "nothing ever happened in baseball above and beyond the frequency predicted by coin-tossing models." Not even the twenty-one-game losing streak experienced at the start of the 1988 season by Major League Baseball's Baltimore Orioles. Bad players and teams have longer and more frequent streaks of failure than great players and great teams, and great players and great teams have longer and more frequent streaks of success than lesser players and lesser teams. But that is because their average failure or success rate is higher, and the higher the average rate, the longer and more frequent are the streaks that randomness will produce. To understand these events, you need only to understand the tossing of coins."

So maybe that helps to explain why the Wings are so successful? 18 straight playoff appearances = longer and more frequent streaks of success? I'm not a stats person by any stretch of the imagination, but I thought that was interesting.

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It's basic probability

Pretty much every event can be assigned a probability. Think of it this way.

If the Red Wings have a 50% chance of beating St. Louis on any given day, then the odds that they will win every game against them in the season is 1/(2^n), where n is the number of times they play.

So if they play 4 times (I know it’s more, this is just for simplicity’s sake), then the odds they sweep are 1/16 or a 6.25% chance of happening.

If the Red Wings have a true talent gap of winning 2 out of every 3 games against them, then they have a 2^4/3^4, or 16/81 chance of sweeping. Which is approximately 19.75%.

Do you have any need for a statistical type-poster for this blog? I’ve always wanted to dabble, I just never had a means to do it.

by cwolf20 on Sep 5, 2009 9:51 PM CDT reply actions  

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