The Sobotka Index: Week of 1/11
(Editor's note: I'd like to welcome Rob Discher as a new author on WIM, thus completing The Production Line's move for blog domination. Rob's got some great stuff and I'm happy to welcome him on board.)
Does anyone else feel like we've been in 9th place for the past year and a half? It's been an odd week in Wings'ville. We came off a scorching hot Western roadie and crashed hard in Long Island, only to redeem ourselves nicely in front of the hometown fans at the Joe last night. I'm still waiting to wake up one morning and realize that, without me even noticing, we just magically moved up a spot into 8th. Hasn't happened yet, but a man can hope, no?
It's been widely commented on that this is a team in playoff mode, and given how tight things are in the West, it's hard to refute that claim. There's wide speculation by the media...and hope from Wings fans...that if we can get into the playoffs, we could be a very dangerous squad. The collective wisdom says that this isn't going to happen unless we get all our horses back in the lineup. The Mules, Kronners and Homers.
Here's the rub - as we cycle those guys in, who gets the boot? MrNorrisTrophytouched on this already in a great piece about Drew Miller (more in him below), but there are other considerations as well. You have to assume whichever lacky we pull from the May/Leino basket is done. And soon. But what about the Gator? What about Malts and...dare I even say it...Eaves? If we do end up getting Williams, Holmstrom and Franzen back, three guys from that crew are done for. In a sense, while the whole team is fighting for a place in the Western Conference playoff race, we've got a mini-playoff of our own happening within the team as guys look to stake out their turf with the big club.
With that in mind, here is this week's installment of The Sobotka Index. For those unfamiliar, this is our regular stab at trying to figure out which players on the Wings are undervalued, which ones are due for a crash and which guys we need to hold onto for a bit longer because we like what we see...but we need to see a little more to be sure.
This week's breakdown after the jump.
BUY: James Tiberius Howard
It's amazing to me that there's even a debate here, but, I'm told, there are people in the Wings fanbase who still think Chris Osgood is the rightful heir to the playoff starting job. Nonesense (and I'm being gentle here). If we've learned one thing about this team this year, it's that we're not going to be outshooting teams by 10-20/game. Like it or not, this version of the Wings lets a TON of shots get on net. On a different team, in a different year, Chris Osgood had a place. It was a tentative hold, but he had it. In 2010? On a team rolling out what can GENEROUSLY be seen as 4 NHL-caliber defensemen every night, we need a different backstop. We need someone who can withstand 35 shots/game, which is what Jimmy has been seeing all month. We also need someone who has the durability to go a dozen games and not flinch.
Every year there are players who step up and make their mark on a team. A few years back it was Dan Cleary, who we didn't know what to think of until he came screaming out of nowhere in Traverse City and hustled his way onto the squad. Then it was Darren Helm, crashing, banging and booming into the hearts of Wings fans during the playoffs. Jimmy Howard has been this year's revelation. He's singlehandedly kept us in games we should have lost (see Kings, Los Angeles) and he's avoided the soul crushing Cloutier-like goals that we used to see Osgood let in. If the playoffs started tomorrow, and thank your Arby's curly fries they don't, we'd be riding Jimmy Howard.
SELL: Brian Rafalski
Our top pairing defense has been an odd tale all year. Over at The Production Line, we've been rough on both Nick and Rafalski, partially because the bar is very high for both of them. Bear in mind, that's about $14 mil worth of defensemen your talking about between the two of them. I'd say we've got a right to have some expectations.
For years, the Wings have been built around their blueline. They're the key ingredient to the puck possession style we patented and they've always contributed in the scoring column. This year, it's been different. If you're looking for evidence, search no further than the collective sigh of relief felt across Southeastern Michigan (and the Interwebs) when Nick finally potted one last night.
I want to link Nick and Rafalski as a packaged deal because they've been linked at the hip for a few years now. We've often seen that as this pairing goes, so goes the rest of the team - if they can get out there and contain the opposition's big guns, we're alright. If they can't...if they're playing less than stellar...we're screwed.
The problem with that association is that Nick and Rafalski are two very different players. Bold thinking, I know. Bear with me. Even when he's not scoring, Nick is still a rock solid defenseman. He's still doing all of the little things right. I spent a week focusing solely on how he got around the ice and I was amazed at how efficient he was out there. Nick can still contribute mightily without racking up any points.
Rafalski doesn't have the same luxury these days. In addition to not scoring or registering any helpers (3 points this month, all assists), Rafalski is making some painfully dumb mistakes. A perfect example came in the Anaheim game when he just handed a goal to Corey Perry, which makes things doubly worse because...well...it's Corey Perry. When you're making $6 mil/year, you can't cough up the puck like that. Not against ANA. Not to that asshole Corey Perry.
HOLD: Drew Miller
Miller right now is a vintage Hold. We just don't know what to do with him. I won't belabor this one too much because of the treatment MrNT did earlier today. ...but I will throw out a a few quick thoughts:
First, is there anyone who DOESN'T love Drew Miller? We're all pulling for the kid. He goes out, hustles, stays out of the penalty box (6 PIM all season). You can move him up and down the lines and trust him in critical situations.
The problem is that at SOME POINT we're going to have a full stable of forwards at our disposal. Sooner or later, Homer and the Mule will come back, and even Jason Williams...who I couldn't care less about...might start skating. That's an entire line of forwards...two of them elite (OK...maybe that's not the best descriptor for Homer). You have to assume Miller's off the top two lines as soon as either Homer or Mulo get back, and as was the problem for Ville Leino, when you're not a top 2 line guy, you end up battling for a spot on Team:Maltby because of how well the Draper/Eaves/HELM(!!) crew has done.
As we said before, May/Leino are done for sure and there's a decent chance the Gator goes back to GR because his contract allows it...frustrating as that will be. Matlby seems to be permanently grandfathered into the fourth line. There was a time where that frustrated me, but I've let it go under the "there are things Mike Babcock understands that I never will" banner. My hope is that Miller can sneak into that fourth line, but he's going to have to play like he did last night to make that happen.
Naturally, all of this assumes that we ever get healthy, but that's a post/rant for another time...
0 recs |
5 comments
|
Comments
Excellent point about Rafalski
I’ve been unimpressed with the way he has played this year. We all know what he’s capable of and the fact that he’s squirming out there against third liners sometimes is shocking. Maybe he’s focused on Olympics, who knows.
by Casey Richey on Jan 15, 2010 3:35 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
Raffy
I definitely think Rafalski’s defensive play has improved this year over last year, but I really never thought of him as that great defensively. The cause of Rafalski and Lidstrom not getting points is the anemic power play. Sure you can blame them for that, but IMO it comes down to coaching. They need a new PP system. The focus of PKillers now is to block shots, block shots, block shots. Point shots don’t cut it because they will be blocked ALL the time. Detroit continues to focus their PP on the point and other teams know it and take it away. It’s up to the coaches to figure something else out that works.
by dewman8810 on Jan 15, 2010 5:43 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
First Step, WIM
Next, the world.
Attaboy, Disch.
I’m big on Drew Miller this week. I’d like to buy him while I can still afford him, in hopes that he doesn’t go all Leino on us.
by Michael Petrella on Jan 15, 2010 4:45 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
I can’t see Miller going Leino on us. That is because Miller can actually handle being hit and playing the North American game. Leino has shown that he can’t. I can’t think of anything bad to say about Drew Miller. He can play effectively on any line. He’s played with Datsyuk, Filppula, and the third and fourth liners and hasn’t looked out of place anywhere. They threw him on the PP against the ’Canes instead of Abdelkader… goal and an assist.
by dewman8810 on Jan 15, 2010 5:59 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
agreed
i was hard pressed to find cons other than that he’s not a excellent finisher. But then again, that’s not his game so it wasn’t that big of a deal.
by Casey Richey on Jan 15, 2010 6:45 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

by 


















