The case for Ville Leino
Bashing Ville Leino has become a regular affair these days, and for good reason: 4 goals, 3 assists for 7 points and a minus-9. That's a disgusting stat line from a guy slated to come in and contribute this season. Ville has been a flat-out disappointment, no two ways about it.
It's worth asking though, if the heart of the Leino Dilemma is more his production or our expectations. He jumped in last year and, with limited minutes, looked like a guy who could develop into a night in, night out contributor. We openly speculated over at The Production Line that while Ville wouldn't singlehandedly erase the memory of Hossa's 40 goals, he might help us get past noted orator Mikael Samuelsson and Jet Setting Scuttles.
This case of inflated expectations vs reality reminds me of about 1,000 blind dates I've been on. One of your friends...typically a girl...calls you up with a HOT TIP on this chick that you ABSOLUTELY have to take out. She's hot. Smart. Funny. Speaks English. You figure with at roster like that you might need to hit up Jared on the way to the first encounter. Then the girl shows up and the buildup, the mental image...it falls apart. You realize that "hot" really meant "she has pretty eyes"...but a thick set of legs; and yes, while she IS a cunning linguist, she uses the entire date to call out your lack of compassion for human rights. She doesn't understand why you write a hockey blog. I digress.
The point here is that it's not that the girl is inherently a loser, it's just that she was oversold. She's a prospect, not a regular. She needs some time to work on her game...hit the gym a little more...unwind from the work stress. If she'd been labeled accordingly from the start, this gap between expectations and delivery wouldn't exist, or at least it would have been a LOT smaller.
Our first instinct is to look at Ville's 7 points, declare him a bust, and continue counting down the days before Homer, Mule and Jason Vanilla (HT: Baroque) return. The problem is that Wings management sees something here and they keep giving The Villain chances to step up. Our experiences with Jimmy Howard this season demonstrate just how dumb it is to discount the braintrust. Back in October all we could talk about was what a rebound machine he was. NHL goaltender? Maybe down in Florida. Bring in Larsson! We all know how that turned out.
Despite his underwhelming production, Babcock and company are sticking with Ville. He started against Washington and Minnesota. He's running with the PP2. He's getting his chances in the shootout. Something's going on here. Trouble...conspiracy...they're afoot. There are conversations with Jimmy D, Kenny Holland, Stevie and Babcock, where someone is making the case for why he deserves to be on the ice. Three theories for what's being said in that dark, smoke-filled room after the jump...
Theory 1: Ville has a legit place in this lineup no matter who comes back
Back in August, everyone assumed that even if he wasn't going to set the league on fire, Ville could at least be a solid third liner. The optimists among us hoped he'd sneak onto the twos and find the scoring touch. Then the injuries started and he was forced into a larger role. Other guys like Patrick Eaves thrived when that happened. More minutes, more responsibility, more production. Ville? Not so much. Ville looks like a guy who needs some time and, more importantly, the ability to fly under the radar. He's the kind of guy right now that, you assume, wants to surprise people when he notches one instead of disappointing when he doesn't.
All that said, it's possible that he still has a place on this team. We've always gotten production from all of our lines, especially the top-3. Is the guy who lit up the Finish Elite League still in there? Does he just need more time to develop? Does he need the studs to come back and take some heat off him?
The theory goes that talent is talent, and if we can just get his confidence back on the straight and narrow, we'll have a regular contributor on our hands for a relative bargain. Maybe he develops into a 2007 Jason Williams with 13 goals and 23 helpers. If that happens, Ville has a place here. He allows us to let guys like Williams slink back across the border to Columbus and he writes one more chapter in the book of guys management saw value in but we consistently doubted.
Theory 2: Ville is trade bait
This is the time of year where teams start deciding if they're playing for the present or future. Do you hold onto the studs or trade for prospects? HSJ already reported this week that Kenny is starting to get calls. Teams know we're in the hunt. They know we're banking on a guys getting healthy and they know that if some of those guys don't get back to 100%, we'll have some holes.
My current favorite theory is that the Wings are giving Ville a chance to assert himself because they know he has value, but ultimately they don't see how he fits into the system. They need him to show some flash so that his trade value pops and we can deal him for something other than a bag of pucks, which is about all we'd get for him these days. If Ville jacks up a few power play goals over the next month, maybe some team comes knocking with a trade that makes sense. If Ville starts to light the lamp, even on a semi-regular basis, some squad could come in assuming that all he needs is the right system, the right linemates, and some increased minutes.
Theory 3: We're not getting healthy this year
Here's the theory that gives me the craps - What if Kenny and company know that we're not going to get the Mule, Vanilla and Homer back to 100% this season? What if they're further out from returning than we think?
If that's the case, we either need to make a trade or VIlle needs to find his golden helmeted form. Brad May is not the answer come playoff time. If he were TPL favorite Aaron Downey, I'd be fine with him running defensemen on the fourth line, but he isn't. May is better in the postgame interview than he is when the clock is running and we need to roll four solid lines out there. No liabilities.
Ville is not the WORST case scenario. He's been around long enough to understand the system. We've gotten him to pipe down about this "I'm not a grinder" business. If our other forwards don't come back healthy...or worse...if we lose someone else closer to playoff time...we're going to be leaning on every healthy body in the system to pull us through.
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I think he stays with Detroit
Just because Holland et. al. are far more patient than any fans could be. I keep coming back to his signing a two year contract, and wonder if the thinking the team had was similar to other young players (and he is not all that young in hockey experience, but he is in NHL experience), that he would need a year in the AHL and then a full year at the NHL level to learn what he needed to do in the offseason to be successful, and then see what he could do in the second year of his contract.
No doubt with his talent he is used to goals coming relatively easily, and he isn’t used to either thinking that he played a good game if there are no tangible results on the scoresheet (many players have problems with that – if they can’t point to a goal and an assist, how do they know they did anything to help the team win? They are used to assessing their own performance in a particular way, and it’s difficult to change), or not having the same amount of space as he did in Finland. It is an adjustment that he probably thought wouldn’t be as tricky for him to make, and he’s frustrated and pressing because he knows he can play better than he has, but the same things he has done for years to be effective aren’t working and he has to learn how to play in the NHL and he isn’t used to struggling like this.
I think he’s more likely to go home to Finland in the offseason than the Red Wings are to jettison him. I think the team has every intention of giving him next year to see what he can do, because if he can deliver even half the level of his last year in Finland (2007-08, 77 points (28 goals) in 55 games, plus 19 points (8 goals) in 14 playoff games, here) he will be well worth the $800,000 salary cap hit.
If it doesn’t work out after a year and a half or two years, at least both sides can split knowing that they gave it an honest try. The Red Wings won’t feel as though they gave up too early on him, and Leino can go back to Finland and tear the league up at home without wondering if he could have made it in the NHL. He would be able to feel that he gave it his best shot and it didn’t work, but at least he tried.
I hope Leino can figure it out next season and play well. It can’t have been easy for him to spend the entire year in Grand Rapids last year with his record of accomplishment in Finland, and I respect him a lot for not bolting and grumbling about a lack of respect – he stuck it out when many others wouldn’t have bothered.
"While there's life, there's hope." --Cicero
i agree
Holland and the rest of the front office seem to always know how to make us all look like dumb for questioning it.
We’ll see what happens though.
by Casey Richey on Jan 23, 2010 9:11 PM CST up reply actions
I keep forgetting about the Finland option
…and it’s a good point. I also hope that he gets the full two years. My gut says that Leino really is capable of more than we’ve seen so far, but he won’t have forever to find that touch. The optimist in me has his fingers crossed that once we get healthy, we’ll have too many shiny objects to keep opposing teams busy and he’ll be able to vulture some goals on the 3rd line.
Leino is trade bait
Leino and Lebda are toast. I see them both on a train out of town during deadline deals. Leino may develop when he finds his confidence, but who has the time nowadays? He wouldnt play 2 years in the AHL, had to be on Detroit or he wouldnt re-sign. Off he goes.. have fun in ATL Ville. Lebda? He will get offers this summer much above what the Wings are willing to give him. Meech ? Lebs? Meech? Lebs? Wash….. Take into account that Kindl must move up or be lost next season…. see ya Lebs!
no team in their right mind will trade for Leino
If he wants to, he can just go back to Finland at any point. The only situation where a team might trade for him is if they want to dump salary to the other team, and then he leaves so they suspend him and do not have to pay – but Detroit isn’t in a position standings-wise or cap-wise to accept a salary dump.
I don’t know if Leino has a future, but I think that Detroit is far more patient and intend to give him the offseason to adjust and be ready for next year. Datsyuk wasn’t a teenage rookie, either, and it took him a while to learn how to play in the NHL. Now he is very comfortable on the smaller rink and if he is of a mind to be, he’s impossible to knock off the puck. It took more than just one season, though.
"While there's life, there's hope." --Cicero
the odd thing about arguing...
that Leino would be better on a different team is that he’s playing on the fourth line right now. He should be able to get those points against other fourth or third liners. This was just something that was running through my mind. It’s interesting to think if he would be better or not in a different system.
Leino and Lebda
Leino has shown flashes of what he can do and how well he can do it. It seems as though he has a sense of entitlement without cause.
What I mean by that is, “The Red Wings wanted ME, they came after ME, now they aren’t giving ME a chance to be ME. I’m a scorer, not a grinder. Put ME with someone that can get me the puck. Get these defensemen off of ME. I score goals, that’s my job, I don’t know how to do anything else.”
Try to remember, he’s 25 going on 26. He’s still pretty young, heck I’m 25. I can sympathize with the though process of, I’m the best the Finish Elite League had to offer, and the Red Wings came and got me! There might be some maturity or humbleness that needs to come into play for Leino to get his head right. In Detroit it’s a Team Game, not a Ville Leino game.
Lebda, Lebda, Lebda…
Maybe this guy can go be a top 6 defensemen somewhere else in the league.
Watching Lebda get beat by bigger and stronger forwards night in and night out is getting old.
Watching him “join the rush” by skating to the left face off circle and slap shot the puck into the chest of a goalie (just so he can get back to warming the pine) is sad.
I was arguing that Lebda should have been traded or put on waivers LONG before Kyle Quincey, and I’m pretty sure hindsight agrees with me.
The real question is, what are you going to get for him? A draft pick? A Prospect? A comparable player?
Draft Pick, maybe, but is Lebda worth it to anyone to give the Wings a 4th or 5th rounder?
A Prospect, probably not. The way the NHL is these days, teams are learning that developing players into your system is a great way to find the diamonds in the rough.
A comparable player, we’ve already got one, Meech. What need do the Red Wings have for an undersized defensemen with an inaccurate shot?
That’s my 2 cents though… and I’m not Ken Holland (probably a good thing I’m not the GM lol)

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