The Sobotka Index

About a month ago over at The Production Line, we started a segment called the “Sobotka Index.”  It's  our lighthearted jab at trying to predict player trends with some vague nod to the stock market-style ups and downs all players cycle through in a given season. 

Worth noting, about the only thing qualifying us to yap about "stock tips" is that one of us lives in New York and the other secretly hopes that Erin Burnett ends up carrying his child…kind of like that Chapelle episode where he knocks up Oprah.  Anyway, this is our shot at stepping into the unflattering role of Jim Cramer, speculating who’s on their way up, who’s maxed out and who we need to hold onto for a bit longer to determine value.  Buy!  Sell!  Octopus!  It's worth noting that we're not advocating for an actual trade here.  This is just a mental exercise...something foreign to residence of "Smashville," but hopefully a bit more germane to the Wings' fanbase.

With that brief, ill-informed introduction, here’s this week’s installment of The Sobotka Index:

Before I make any grand claims of expertise, it's worth noting that, just like in the stock market or Karen Newman's bedroom, you can't ever predict the future 100% of the time.  Last time through this exercise it was mid-December and our picks for BUY, SELL and HOLD were, respectively, Patrick Eaves, Todd Bertuzzi and Jimmah Howard.  Eaves was showing some great jump and I had this distinct feeling he was about to break out on a scoring tear.  Bertuzzi, I assumed, could do no better than the previous week where he'd netted an impossibly awesome Chuck Woolrey Special with "2 goals in 2 games."  Turns out I was wrong on both accounts.  Since the December halfway mark, Eaves has settled back to Earth with a pedestrian 1 point and Bertuzzi has continued to heat up the box score with an impressively symmetrical 4 goals and 4 assists.  Had we taken my advice to get what we could for an "overinflated" Bertz, we would have missed out on the emergence of the team's most dominant line and, I would argue, the sparking of both Pavel and Homer.  Thankfully, my Jimmy Howard "wait...we just might have something here" nod lined up. 

I never claimed to be a soothsayer.  Onto the next round of misguided "stock tips"...

BUY:  Nick Lidstrom

By his own superhuman standards, Nicky Norris is having a rather pedestrian season.  We're used to seeing Nick light the lamp on a regular basis, manning the helm of what was once a fearsome power play unit.  Regardless of how well he's playing defensively, we need our captain to be more than just a responsible blueliner.  His "stock" is as low right now as we've seen in a long time.  We need him on the stat sheet and the last time he potted one I hadn't even figured out what I was going to wear for Halloween.  One goal, 18 assists, +13...a HELL of a season for the average defensemen, but not Nick.  The upshot is that Nick is starting to heat up, playing the part of our own little Christmas miracle with 6 assists across the PHX, COL and CBJ (the first one) games.  With Homer getting back to his old self tipping pucks and Lidstrom continuing to put more rubber on net, good things are on the horizon for Nick.  We'll need him down the stretch, so even if it's a bit optimistic, he's my BUY.

SELL:  Ville Leino

This is almost too easy, but it has to be said: Ville Leino has no place on this team.  I spent all summer tuning up the axles on the Leino bandwagon, sure that he was going to take off this year and at least get in that Samuelsson range of 40 points.  I don't need to remind anyone how that turned out.  There are some guys who can contribute without getting on the stat sheet.  The aforementioned Patrick Eaves is one of them.  The kid hustles, he's fantastic on the PK and he's developing some real chemistry on that third line with Drapes and Helm.

The problem with Leino is that if he's not scoring, he's about as useful an Av's fan at an Odyssey of the Mind competition.  Ville might flounder around the lineup while we're waiting for Buckets, Mule and Hank to come back, but once those guys return, there won't be any room for him on the top 2 lines.  To further kick The Villain in the shins, there's no way you break up that Helm line right now.  This knocks Ville into competing for time on the fourth line, which he's openly said he's got no interest in doing. 

The very best thing I can say right now about Ville is that maybe he just missed his era.  Back in the Federov days...when we were doing everything we could to play "The Beautiful Game"...looking for that extra pass...he might have had a spot.  Reasonable people could argue that was a prettier team...maybe even a softer team.  Right now, we're a Darren Helm team...one looking for production that comes from hustle, from doing the dirty work. 

HOLD: Buckets

Even after missing about a dozen games, Dan Cleary is still in our top 10 points guys with 16.  On a team that's seen some legitimate droughts this year, the smart money says that he can't get back into this lineup fast enough and that once he does, he'll return to form.  That said, there are always questions about guys returning from injury.

As this team battles for that last playoff spot and works its way up the standings, we'll need production from that second line.  There's only so far that Pavel/Homer/Bertuzzi unit can take us.  (For proof of one good line not being enough come crunch time, please see Ducks, Mighty, 2008).  While I love having Flip back anchoring the Deuces, that line still isn't producing and Flip himself only has one point in the past week despite looking fantastic. Someone on that second line needs to go hard to the net, bang away at the loose pucks and find a way to tickle the twine.  I think that guy is Dan Cleary and I'll be holding my breath for the next two weeks praying I'm right.

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