CSSI Analysis: Red Wings 2 - Coyotes 4
The Wings welcomed the feral dogs into the Joe Louis Arena tonight and let them tear up the furniture in the first period, jumping out to a 3-0 lead early. While Detroit was able to fight back the rest of the game, the damage had been done and a man named Lauri topped the evening off with an empty-netter to seal the game at 4-2.
Four days off didn't help much, but the Wings are professionals; getting started on time is a must. Defensive miscues and only two periods of goaltending is not going to win you many games against defensively sound teams. This one hurt; let's roll right into the CSSI
CSSI Tracking Chart here
CSSI Methodology Explanation here
Goalie Ratings:
Chris Osgood started the game with a stink that would wear on the team the entire game. Of the three goals he gave up, 2.5 of them were bad. I don't know if the Wings would have won the game with competent goaltending in the first, but I do know that I sure as hell would have loved the opportunity to find out. To his credit, Osgood played very well in the 2nd and 3rd periods, stonewalling many good scoring opportunities that the Coyotes only had because the Wings had to take extra chances to make up the three-goal deficit. The scoring here is a bit of a conundrum for me. I counted four big saves on the night by Osgood, but only one of them was before he had given up the three-goal lead. I don't want to get in the guessing game of how many big saves he would have had to have made without the bad start, but I can't in good conscience give Osgood a plus rating on this night. As a result, I'm only crediting him with the one big save he made that he didn't indirectly force upon himself. His rating on the night is -1.5. I'll gladly listen in the comments to anybody who feels this is unfair.
Scoring and plus/minus after the jump.
The Goals1st Period 7:00 - Phoenix Goal: Radim Vrbata (backhand) from Petr Prucha
Detroit's fourth line forechecks in Phoenix's zone. Eaves and Miller lose the puck at the faceoff dot, where Prucha takes a swipe to try to clear. Helm tries to tip the puck to Kindl, but the young defenseman is not in good position to receive it; this sends Vrbata off to the races with a step on Kindl. Jakub hooks Vrbata, but not significantly enough to keep him from doing whatever he wants on the breakaway. Chris Osgood rolls over for him but completely misses any semblance of a poke check and Vrbata has an easy goal. Osgood credited with half a bad goal. I generally won't blame a goalie for giving up a goal on a breakaway, but his move here was so off-base and ridiculous that I feel half-blame goes to him. Salei will not get a minus; he was the only Wings player on the ice who didn't mishandle the puck or his assignment.
1st Period 8:55 - Phoenix Goal (PP): Keith Yandle (wrist shot) from Ray Whitney and Ed Jovanoski
Phoenix is on the power play here because of a hook by Mike Modano. His victim took a dive, but that doesn't excuse Modano having his stick in there in the first place. After most of a good kill, the Phoenix power play gets the penalty killers chasing around a bit. Jovanoski moves to the middle on the blue line and passes to Whitney on the boards. Whitney immediately recognizes Yandle going low on the far side and gets him the puck at the bottom of the left faceoff dot. Here, Kronwall has a moment of indecision as to whether to challenge Yandle or cover Doan in front. Meanwhile, Osgood falls for a deke that doesn't happen and drops into his butterfly with Yandle still holding the puck. As soon as Osgood drops, Yandle takes advantage of the extra space above his glove. This is a bad goal for Osgood. While Doan in front and Stempniak on the back door were options for Yandle, it's Osgood's responsibility to stay on the shooter and charge his defense with stopping those passes for the easy tip in. Osgood gave up the near side and the top shelf. Kronwall's indecision earns him a half-minus on this power play goal against and Modano's hooking penalty gets him a minus.
1st Period 11:56 - Phoenix Goal (SH): Lauri Korpikoski unassisted
At the end of a mostly ineffective power play for Detroit, Zetterberg shoots from the point and has the puck blocked to the side. Lauri Korpikoski picks up the puck and carries up ice into the Detroit zone covered by Lidstrom. Proving there's no such thing as a bad decision to shoot, Korpikoski releases a wrister from ten feet inside the blue line that beats Osgood on the short side. Replay shows the puck may have been tipped, but Osgood is not square to this shot. Osgood gets another bad goal. I am not wiping any minuses here for the bad goal because the entire power play unit was not doing its job. Their job is to score and they failed on that; the minuses remain.
2nd Period 13:05 - Detroit Goal (PP): Johan Franzen (tip in) from Jiri Hudler and Nicklas Lidstrom
Detroit is on this power play because Ilya Bryzgalov handles the puck outside of the goalie's trapezoid behind the goal line. You could argue that Franzen's forechecking forced the error, but I don't think that was the case more than Bryzgalov making a mental error on his own. The first half of the power play creates some good chances early, but is eventually knocked off stride. The Wings get the puck back into the zone while switching units. Filppula takes a shot on goal designed to be tipped in front by Kronwall. This play doesn't work and the puck comes around to the top of the far side where Lidstrom controls. Nick feints inside and dishes off to Hudler at the half-boards. During this play, Kronwall and Franzen have switched places so Franzen is in front. The Mule puts his stick on the ice wide of the net as a target for Hudler. Jiri finds Franzen's stick with a quick pass for a deflection off Bryzgalov's leg and in. Everybody did something right on this play, but nobody did anything exceptional, so there is no scoring change.
3rd Period 3:56 - Detroit Goal: Tomas Holmstrom (tip in) from Pavel Datsyuk and Henrik Zetterberg
A dump-in by Tomas Holmstrom is played well as Datsyuk pressures Jovanoski into turning the puck over with a bad pass that goes over Derek Morris' stick. Holmstrom collects the turnover and passes to Zetterberg skating into the slot. Hank outmuscles two Phoenix back checkers and finds Datsyuk all alone on the back door. Bryzgalov stones Datsyuk's attempt (and the next two) before Holmstrom steps in from behind the net to bounce it in off the goaltender's skate. Holmstrom, Zetterberg, and Datsyuk each earn extra half-pluses on the play. Holmstrom's dump-and-forecheck, as well as the pass to Z was fantastic. Zetterberg's out-muscling two defenders was herculean, and Datsyuk forced the original turnover and kept hammering away at the puck after being stopped point-blank by Bryzgalov.
3rd Period 19:02 - Phoenix Goal (EN): Lauri Korpikoski (slap shot) unassisted
With Detroit's net empty for the extra skater and Phoenix having recently burned their timeout after a costly icing, Kronwall receives the puck high and gets cute; the mis-handle costs the Wings the zone. Kronwall feeds Franzen going back in but he's stopped high and Phoenix re-clears, where the puck ends up back on Kronwall's stick. Nik Jr. tries lazily dumping it across to Lidstrom on the backhand, but misplays it again where Lauri Korpikoski picks it up and scores into the empty net. Kronwall earns an extra minus for his two mistakes on this play. Franzen will keep his minus for failing to get the puck deep on the carry back in. Nobody else receives a minus on this play.
Bonus Ratings:
+1 to Pavel Datsyuk: Pavs was an absolute marvel of a man on the ice. He controlled all three zones and definitely deserves a better fate than the minus-1 rating he got on the official scoresheet.
-1 to Tomas Holmstrom: On the other side, Holmstrom played very well on the second Detroit goal, but he took two offensive zone penalties and was not particularly effective the rest of the night. The first penalty was something of a weak call, considering what had been going on in front of the net that entire play; the second penalty was a ridiculously bad decision and a momentum killer. For that, Homer gets punished.
+1 to Ruslan Salei: 2:18 into the third period, when Detroit's comeback was still teetering on the brink, Phoenix's Derek Morris released a slapshot intentionally wide of Osgood which ricocheted off the end boards and right to Kyle Turris out front. Salei quickly and very deftly canceled out Turris' stick and saved a goal.
+0.5 to Darren Helm and Patrick Eaves: These two led the Wings PK again and were not on the ice for the lone Phoenix man advantage tally. Helm drew a couple of penalties himself and I thought Eaves was the strongest even-strength forechecker for the fourth line which played well. Miller misses out for just not being as good as his two linemates.
-0.5 to Jiri Hudler: If you followed along the game thread, one of my biggest pet peeves of the night was Wings skaters who did not have their stick in position to receive passes or rebounds. Looking back, Hudler was guilty of this more often than anybody else by a margin of at least 2. This is not an adjustment from the Russian league issue, it's a fundamental flaw in the way he played this game. This needs to be corrected.
Detroit has a day to stew over this and get their heads on right, as Nashville comes to town on Saturday. I watched part of the third period in their loss to St. Louis; After seeing Jordin Tootoo get the gate for a five-minute charging major which may also be a blindside headshot to Carlo Colaiacovo, I wouldn't be surprised to see the little shit-stirrer suspended. Anything that keeps him from trying to end Franzen's career is fine by me.
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Kindl
I wondered if you’d penalize him more for allowing the breakaway to Prucha in the first place, but your assessments are bang on.
The play of the line that was on with Osgood pulled still baffles me. I’m convinced that Kronwall had a stroke, and this is why he was unable to move the puck with any effectiveness. It’s fitting that they started and ended the game the same way: flat.
I completely agree with your assessment of Holmstrom. The second penalty he took was just dumb, and hindered any chances the Wings had of coming back. I am becoming more and more frustrated with his inability to be effective for 90% of the game, but then he gets a goal like the one he had last night and I realize why he still has a place in the lineup. It just seems like in games against fast opponents like the Yotes, he’s more of a liability than an asset.
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I had Kindl all lined up to take the brunt of the blame on the Vrbata goal, but the replay calmed me down a lot. Still, I’m considering somehow giving him an extra bonus minus along the way because this is the second time a miscommunication with a forward in the offensive zone has produced a goal against (In the Colorado game, he and Hudler got mixed up, leaving O’Reilly to run the other way with it).
I’ll be doing an October CSSI wrap-up post sometime after the Preds game; Kindl needs to wow me.
by J.J. from Kansas on Oct 29, 2010 7:44 AM CDT up reply actions
Tootoo hit
Having watched the replay, I have to say it was a good hard hit and Carlo needs to keep his head up.
It wasn’t blind-side, and Tootoo doesn’t appear to leave his feet until after contact is made. Most of the contact appears to be shoulder to shoulder, and if there was any shoulder-head contact, it comes as a result of follow through on the hit.
I think the refs really blew this one, but then again, no ref wants to get called out as the one who DIDN’T call a blindside hit.
If Tootoo is supsended, it will be because a new branch has been added to Colin Campbell’s flow chart.
After seeing the replay/angles
I’m still a little torn. I do think Tootoo blindsided him, as Colaiacovo was reaching for the puck, but I don’t think he left his feet early. He did come from a distance, but the puck’s vicinity pretty much clears that.
I think Tootoo’s history may work against him here though.
by J.J. from Kansas on Oct 29, 2010 10:13 AM CDT up reply actions
It may.
I just have a hard time penalizing a guy because the guy he hit got his bell rung.
And the only reason it’s “blindside” is because Carlo wasn’t paying attention to where he was going.
I guess what I’m trying to say, is my view of a “blindside” hit is the Richards on Booth hit from last year. A guy catching up from behind and then throwing a shoulder across the front of the player with the puck so as to knock him in the head.
Hits like this, are, and always should be, part of the game.
Good wrap-up
I love reading these, however, I have a couple suggestions. Keep in mind that I don’t have DVR so this is solely from my whiskey-soaked recollection of the game and the highlights I watched later.
1) I disagree with Lids getting a full -1 on the short-handed goal. While the PP unit did not score, I felt that his puck movement was the best part of the PP and his linemates were not moving around successfully to give him valid options for passing/shooting. Also, he was the only one who made it back to assist on the defensive end when Lauri (not gonna even try to spell his last name) broke free. Maybe only a -0.5 for him?
2) I don’t think Datsyuk deserved the extra +0.5 on Det’s 2nd goal. while he was amazing for most of the night (for which you justly rewarded him in his extra +1 for the game) I felt that this was not his finest shift of the night. He did enough to set up the goal to earn that +1 he gets for the shift, but I don’t think a few extra whacks at the puck after Bryz’s initial save warrants an extra bonus cookies. This sets a precedent for an additonal +0.5 for any time a player successfuly pokes the puck through with a couple extra whacks, and I don’t think that is well balanced with the rest of the rating system.
I love the consept of the CSSI, but maintaining consistency from player-player, game-game and month-month is going to be challenging.
Just my $0.02.
by Red, White and a Mile high on Oct 29, 2010 2:55 PM CDT reply actions
On the Lidstrom one, I considered giving him a pass for being the only one to be in position to defend that play, but I’m probably not going to give many passes on short-handed goals-against simply because if Lidstrom were truly doing his job, the Wings would have scored.
Datsyuk’s three whacks at the puck was only a small part of what he contributed to that play. There was a strong defensive play in his own zone that helped start the rush up ice and he created the Jovanoski turnover that ended up on Holmstrom’s stick. Of the three forwards who got a half-plus, I was the least sure I wanted to give Zetterberg his, because his contribution I feel was smaller than both Holmstrom’s and Datsyuk’s. Of course, being in perfect position to keep the puck from two defenders very quickly and then finding Datsyuk on the back door was a crucial part of that play. I had to watch that frame-by-frame a few times to fully appreciate the hand-eye coordination Zetterberg used to keep the puck on his stick and I was nothing short of wowed. I would hope that anytime a forward does such an excellent job controlling that puck to earn an assist, I will give him a half-plus for the extra work.
by J.J. from Kansas on Oct 29, 2010 3:54 PM CDT up reply actions
thanks for the explanation.
I still think Lids deserves at least a partial pass on that SHG, but that’s just, like, my opinion, dude.
Once again, thanks for all the work that the CSSI requires.
by Red, White and a Mile high on Oct 29, 2010 4:23 PM CDT reply actions
Haha
I definitely appreciate the input still. Your point above about keeping consistent all season long is what I’m most worried about. Without you guys to keep me in line, I’m likely to mess up.
Of course, that’s not to say that total objectivity is the ultimate aim. Total objectivity is what leads to the problems I have with current stat-tracking.
by J.J. from Kansas on Oct 29, 2010 4:30 PM CDT up reply actions
Completely agree with the Ozzie rating
One way you could argue it is he gave up 2.5 bad goals in the first but battled back and made several key saves in the 2nd and 3rd periods. Each individual big save wasn’t particularly “big” simply because the Wings were already down due to his poor play…but overall, his 2nd/3rd period play deserves at least a +1. And we arrive at the -1.5 that you have come up with. It sounds about right.
IMO, any big save he made in period 1 should be discounted because of the otherwise very poor play in that period. Since it’s already subjective what is considered a “big save” I don’t think this takes away from anything. I think what I’m trying to say is maybe each individual big save shouldn’t necessarily mean an automatic +1 or even +0.5, especially when considering other circumstances regarding the game. Perhaps it’s another way to mitigate a positive bias in the goalie analysis. Just a suggestion…
I agree that -1.5 is a good assessment of Ozzie’s play, but I have been thinking about how that was determined all day.
I think that negating a good save in the first period because of other poor play in the same period is effectively “double-counting” those poor plays and can incorporate inconsistencies into the system. However, as JJ said earlier, “that’s not to say that total objectivity is the ultimate aim. Total objectivity is what leads to the problems I have with current stat-tracking.”
As a suggestion, perhaps JJ should consider a wider range of values for the good saves/bad goals (though, this would inherently require more effort and consideration on his part). For example: the 1st goal is a -0.5 for reasons previously stated. The second goal is a bad goal and deserves a -1. The 3rd goal was absolutely horrendous and deserving of a -2 (not just a -1). Then Ozzie has (from memory here) 1 fantastic save (1) and 2 “nod-deserving” saves (0.5 each) to bring him to a -1.5 on the night.
This is just a rambling suggestion (and maybe this is something JJ already considers and I’m way off-base) and I don’t mean to stick my nose where it doesn’t belong.
by Red, White and a Mile high on Oct 29, 2010 6:21 PM CDT up reply actions
Along those same lines
Since we know in general that “big saves” come in bigger quantities than “bad goals”, why not say something like 2 big saves = +0.5, 4 big saves = +1? There’s a ton of ways to grow this goalie +/- system…and honestly who knows whats the best way to do it?
Just another suggestion (not quite of the rambling variety)
Or maybe 1 big save = +0.5, 2 big saves = +1
Whatever feels right.
I kind of like where you're going with this.
Since there will generally always be more big saves than bad goals, the system will need some kind of a correction to get to something of a meaningful number (although looking at the difference in goalie plus/minus right now, I could meaningfully say that Howard has outplayed Osgood… then again, you don’t really need stats to back that up if you’ve watched all the games).
I think that for now, I’m going to generally keep the scoring system as-is, I’ve looked back at some of the performances and I’m not sure splitting big saves into smaller portions is going the be the way to go (although I do see the logic in RW&aMH’s comment above about how forgetting Ozzie’s big saves because of the bad performance that made them necessary is essetially double-counting his mistakes). I am going to look at doing some mathematical corrections based on a few arbitrary adjustments to see how it looks though.
I think that as long as we can agree on what the ultimate plus/minus score will be, then what we’ll end up with at the end of the season will have the right mix of objective and subjective material to give us good numbers to go off of when we’re making a final conclusion.
by J.J. from Kansas on Oct 30, 2010 11:42 AM CDT up reply actions
Yeah I agree
Ultimately, you need one full set/season of numbers anyway to even really be able to add “bias corrections” (if you will) to the system, if at all. But I agree that as long as we can agree on the final +/- number, it’s a good start to this analysis.

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