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CSSI Analysis: Red Wings 4 - Ducks 0

"Yes, my puck; levitate!"

As mentioned on Wednesday, I plan to take a different look at the statistics of each Red Wings game this season.  I call this system the Common Sense Scoring Index [CSSI].  You can read the refresher on what differences there will be between official NHL stats and the adjusted stats I'm keeping here. The Red Wings 4-0 domination of the Ducks was absolutely clinical.  Just about every Red Wings player had a good night.  This undertaking will be incredibly easy with 81 more games like this.

Go here for an updated chart on this season's CSSI Numbers:


The Goals

1st Period 5:11 - Detroit Goal: Johan Franzen (snap shot) from Valtteri Filppula and Todd Bertuzzi -
Franzen snaps it short-side past Hiller on a beautiful give-and-go from Filppula.  Bertuzzi had a touch low in the zone to clear it into open space in the corner where Franzen got to it to set up the play.  Both official assists are earned.  I'm giving an additional assist to Ruslan Salei, who held the puck in twice on this play, the second time with a very good pinch.

1st Period 5:45 - Detroit Goal: Mike Modano (snap shot) from Daniel Cleary and Brad Stuart -
After a dump-in, Hudler draws a couple Ducks to the half-boards to fight for it.  The puck is weakly cleared to Stuart inside the blue line who throws it cross-side low to Cleary covered in the slot, who gets it quickly to Modano for a wrister that catches Hiller moving against the grain and beats him low to the glove side.  Hudler does good work here, but it was more a Ducks' screwup that led the puck to Stuart's stick.  No adjustment to the scoring on this play.

2nd Period 5:29 - Detroit Goal: Pavel Datsyuk (tip-in) from Henrik Zetterberg and Brian Rafalski -
Rafalski with a nice long outlet pass to Datsyuk who fights for it in the Ducks' zone and almost creates a goal for Zetterberg before getting it back and playing it to Rafalski, who dishes to Zetterberg covering the point.  Zetterberg throws a wrister-pass to Datsyuk standing low at the side who tips it past Hiller.  All three players involve make excellent plays here and earn their points.  No scoring adjustment

2nd Period 16:55 - Detroit Goal: Daniel Cleary (tip-in)  from Pavel Datsyuk -
A Ducks mistake clearing their zone leads to a neutral zone steal from Datsyuk, who takes it to the top of the right faceoff circle and connects with Dan Cleary streaking to the net; Cleary brings the puck into the net with him past Hiller before the moorings are knocked loose.  I almost gave Eaves a plus here for doing good forechecking work (Eaves came off for Cleary right before the goal), but watching again clearly shows it was a bad mistake by the Ducks rather than a forced error.  No scoring adjustment here either.

Bonus Ratings

+1.5 to Dan Cleary:  On top of the +2 rating he earned in this game, Cleary had it working in all three zones and was the Wings' best player in the third period.  He was banging on the boards, winning battles, and he drew three Ducks penalties on the night.
+1 to Pavel Datsyuk:  Dr. Dangle had his first career Gordie Howe hat trick.  He's not getting the bonus plus solely for that, but if a guy's that involved all over the ice, he deserves recognition.
-0.5 to Valtteri Filppula: No Red Wings player had a bad game, but two of the Ducks' best chances came off Flip's stick in the first.  The first one was a bad job of stickhandling in the defensive zone at the 12:40 mark that let to a good opportunity from the high slot; the second came 3:40 later when Filppula, while covering for Niklas Kronwall, who led the rush and was still deep, passed the puck weakly back to the point from where he had just pinched.  The resulting turnover led to an odd-man rush that had to be played well by Salei and a backchecking Franzen.

Goalie Ratings

Jimmy Howard wasn't tested much, but I counted three big saves to zero bad goals given up (pretty easy to do in a shutout).  His positioning and rebound control were solid, save for a bit of a bobble in the third period when the game was out of hand. His rating for this game was a +3.

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Nice

I look forward to reading these entries throughout the season.

by Elfuego51 on Oct 9, 2010 9:31 AM CDT reply actions  

Thank you

So far I’m one-for-one on enjoying doing these. I imagine the first bad Wings loss will be tough, but I’m as interested as anybody to see what the end-of-season results will look like.

by J.J. from Kansas on Oct 9, 2010 9:55 AM CDT reply actions  

Fuch it, I'm here

You made me sign up JJ. I can’t read your stuff without commenting, especially not on this awesome project. I’m like the un-creepy version of Lindas1st, who I see is continuing to stalk you. Freak.

Anyway, just wanted to give props on recognizing Salei. That second pinch was fantastic, especially because he put it in the open corner to take advantage of the Joe’s springy boards. He ‘arrived’ as a Detroit D-man in that moment. Very smart player and Gramps’ new man crush I’m sure.

by Osrt on Oct 9, 2010 12:48 PM CDT reply actions  

Great to see you stop by Osrt

Sorry about dropping that half-minus on your boy, Flip, but I can’t play favorites.

For Salei, I almost gave him another half-plus for the way he played the whole game, except that turnover to Bobby Ryan right after the Cleary goal looked a bit Liljaesque.

by J.J. from Kansas on Oct 9, 2010 1:09 PM CDT up reply actions  

I’m like the un-creepy version of Lindas1st

Looks like you been stalking me Osrt. Anyway, good to see you get out once and while.

by Lindas1st on Oct 9, 2010 1:40 PM CDT up reply actions  

JJ, will you been giving a minus’ on empty net goals against?

by Lindas1st on Oct 9, 2010 1:45 PM CDT reply actions  

Unless you or somebody else can provide me a good reason not to

The NHL doesn’t differentiate between empty-net and full-net when giving out pluses and minuses.

My reason for a guy keeping his minus in a situation is that, for the most part, a player who’s on the ice late in the game with an empty net is out there in that situation because he’s one of the guys who should have been scoring all game long to avoid being in the empty net desperation situation he’s currently in. He absolutely deserves his minus when the other team scores.

I may occasionally give extra minuses to guys out there who make a really dumb play that gives the puck to the other team to score in the empty net as well.

by J.J. from Kansas on Oct 9, 2010 2:06 PM CDT up reply actions  

Understood , well reasoned also, thanx.

by Lindas1st on Oct 9, 2010 5:17 PM CDT up reply actions  

Any thought on giving an assist to the goal scorer on occasion, or did I miss a point about that in the original post? I’m referring especially to goals give-and-go goals like Franzen’s, but I suppose there could be other cases as well.

by Nate A on Oct 9, 2010 2:42 PM CDT reply actions  

I did mention it in response to a question in the original post

But I don’t mind re-hashing:

I don’t foresee giving players more than one point on any scoring play unless I see something absolutely fantastic (Datsyuk flipping it over the back of the net as an example).

My main thought process behind this is that I don’t want the adjustment stats to be a point bonanza so much as a correction on the black-and-white way official stats are calculated.

For instance, on last night’s Pavel Datsyuk goal, I could have given Rafalski a 2nd assist (he made the original outlet pass to Datsyuk that got them into the zone on the rush and the pass from the side boards to Zetterberg that led to the tip-in.) I could have also given Datsyuk an assist on his own goal for his hard work and creativity in the zone. While doing that would show that Datsyuk and Rafalski both made great plays, I worry that the points inflation would take away the value of any single assist. With scoring like that, it would be easy to completely overlook the fantastic decision that Zetterberg made and vision he used in making the pass to Datsyuk for the tip-in.

by J.J. from Kansas on Oct 9, 2010 2:54 PM CDT up reply actions  

Fair enough. Thanks for the clarification and re-hash.

Lookin forward to reading more on this project.

by Nate A on Oct 9, 2010 3:01 PM CDT up reply actions  

Follow-up

As an addendum and, because I’m curious to see how the thought experiment works out, I’ll track a looser interpretation of the CSSI stats as well. I’m not creating a full 2nd chart to review after every game, but at the end of the season, we’ll compare the tighter interpretation I’m using to see which system looks better. For instance, the looser interpretation which I’m keeping hidden will give Franzen an assist on his own goal as well as award Datsyuk an assist on his goal, Rafalski two assists on the Datsyuk goal, and Hudler a half-assist on the Modano goal.

Hell, it’s all already in my notes anyway, so it’s not like I’m creating any extra work. Should be interesting to find out how different things will look.

by J.J. from Kansas on Oct 9, 2010 3:02 PM CDT up reply actions  

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