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Goals allowed by time elapsed in period

Colin Wilson scored the latest of the dreaded Budd Lynch goals against the Red Wings in last night's game.

This post originally started with the idea of how frequent the Red Wings have been allowing goals in the opening and closing minutes of periods. The dreaded "Budd Lynch goal" (Copyright 1832, Ye Olde Production Line) has plagued the Red Wings in recent years and last night's loss to Nashville featured one such goal at the end of the first period. Since there was no easy way to sort stats by goals allowed at time elapsed or anything like that, I went back and painstakingly logged all goals for the season by time of the period and who scored them.Can you guess that I don't want to study for exams quite yet?

Of course, I have nothing to compare them to because although I'm avoiding studying, I'm not going to avoid it to the degree where I log EVERY teams goals for the season. So mainly, this is just a look at the Wings goals have been scored during various times of the game.

Stats, tables and pie charts after the jump. Oh yes.

Star-divide

Method: As explained before the jump, I logged every goal against for the season so far and included the following: period, time elapsed in the period, goal scorer, if it was a special teams goal, and who was in net. For the "who was in net" column I made sure to make a note if it was an empty netter since those are a different type of goal allowed in my book. 

Here's a simple break down of goals by period:

Period Goal Scored Count Percentage
1st Period 22 31.88
2nd Period 26 37.68
3rd Period 19 27.53
OT 2 2.90

 

Here's a break down of goals by time elapsed, broken into tenths:

Time Frame Count Percentage (Rounded)
0:00-2:00 9 13.04
2:01-4:00 2 2.90
4:01-6:00 9 13.04
6:01-8:00 8 11.59
8:01-10:00 9 13.04
10:01-12:00 5 7.25
12:01-14:00 0 ZERO
14:01-16:00 5 7.25
16:01-18:00 6 8.70
18:01-20:00, or last minute of OT 16* 23.19

*Two of the OT game winners have come with under a minute to play in the extra period. 

As you can see, over a third of Detroit's goals allowed have come in the opening two minutes and closing two minutes. Only one empty netter has been scored on Detroit this year, which would bring the actual goals allowed in the final two minutes down to 15, but for our purposes (read: it's easier) we'll keep it in there.

Since I promised a pie chart:

Goalsallowedtimeelapsed_medium

Anyway, let's get on to another statistical break down. Goals allowed in the opening and closing minutes...by goalie.

Goalie and "minutes of interest" Count Percentage of his goals allowed
Howard first minute 3 5.66
Howard first two minutes 5 9.43
Howard last minute* 8 15.09
Howard last two minutes* 13 24.53
Osgood first minute 3 21.43
Osgood first two minutes 4 28.57
Osgood last minute* 2 14.29
Osgood last two minutes* 2 14.29

 

*Includes last minute of OT goals

Of course this stat is very skewed in terms of Osgood's numbers as he has a much smaller sample size than Howard does. The fact that Howard has allowed over 33% of his goals at the beginning or end of a period may suggest that he's a little less focused but I also think there's a ton of other factors in this. I think the defense also plays a little less actively than they should in the waning minutes of periods, something that has cost the team in the past. 

One last stat to look at, that is goals coming on the man advantage at the beginning and end of a period. Two of the goals in the last two minutes of a period have come by way of an opponent's powerplay and three of the goals in the first two minutes of a period have come on the man advantage. 

What does it all mean? Nothing really substantial I don't think. I think we all have seen the team sort of relax at the end of the period and be attacked pretty much at will by the opposition. Maybe it's one of those things that the opposition is just doing better and they deserve credit? However, I think with a great number of the goals coming in these manners, it is something of some concern. Your thoughts?

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It would be interesting

to see how many goals the Wings have scored in the last/first minute of periods comparatively… any stats on this?

by kylegroombridge on Dec 9, 2010 5:14 PM CST reply actions  

i will do another post on this

since i procrastinated enough today, i should probably do some work tonight.

by Casey Richey on Dec 9, 2010 8:09 PM CST up reply actions  

Being brave..

Working on a spreadsheet!

Harvester of tires, master of bad humor.
Troll nation unite!

by onevilklown on Dec 9, 2010 10:28 PM CST up reply actions  

and an hour and 40 minutes later.
For those interested

If anything is wrong, by all means slap me outside my troll head and tell me i suck at stats.
Sorry the PDF is 5 Pages

Casey, I may have saved you a bunch of work. :) I E-mailed the PDF and Excel book to you.

Harvester of tires, master of bad humor.
Troll nation unite!

by onevilklown on Dec 10, 2010 12:15 AM CST up reply actions  

so in other words

We’ve scored 13 in the last 2 minutes of periods and we’ve given up 14 in the last 2 minutes of periods.. pretty even it seems..

by kylegroombridge on Dec 10, 2010 1:36 AM CST up reply actions  

mmmm pie.

what flavors does it come in?

Harvester of tires, master of bad humor.
Troll nation unite!

by onevilklown on Dec 9, 2010 5:44 PM CST reply actions  

I'll take a dozen!

Do you gift wrap as well?

Harvester of tires, master of bad humor.
Troll nation unite!

by onevilklown on Dec 9, 2010 8:44 PM CST up reply actions  

This is awesome Casey, really good work.

Also really interesting to see that all of our thoughts were right, and that we weren’t just making it up in our heads because we notice last minute goals more.

by Kjell on Dec 9, 2010 6:01 PM CST reply actions  

However I must point out...

Statistics are like bikinis. What they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is VITAL. (Aaron Levenstein..) – Again good job sir….

I celebrate Festivus!!!

by bharatwaj5 on Dec 9, 2010 6:18 PM CST reply actions  

BTW

if you need more..
http://www.quotegarden.com/statistics.html

- My personal fav -

Then there is the man who drowned crossing a stream with an average depth of six inches.

There is a lot of astute thinking behind some of these pearls of wisdom….

I celebrate Festivus!!!

by bharatwaj5 on Dec 9, 2010 8:02 PM CST up reply actions  

I think you're right

I think the Wings relax towards the end of periods and start watching the clock.

I’m not worried about that though. This team just needs to get to the playoffs.

by J.J. from Kansas on Dec 9, 2010 7:37 PM CST reply actions  

which do you want

I offered to do a few other teams for comparison’s sake (it will have to wait until the weekend, as my modem has puked so I am internetless until I can get it fixed, so I’ll have to lurk at a hotspot or hang out at my parent’s internet connection), and wondered if you had input as to which teams you wanted to see.

I’m thinking either the other four in the division or (maybe a better comparison) the other top scoring team, either in the NHL or just the West.

I know that Montreal gets a lot of grief from their fans about the same thing, so that might be a good example as well.

Either comment or tweet at me what you think would be a better idea. I think I could manage four teams – more than that and someone else will have to pick a few teams. :)

Random Ramblings from a Somewhat Scattered Mind

"It is a mistake to try to look too far ahead. The chain of destiny can only be grasped one link at a time." --Sir Winston Churchill (1874 – 1965)

by Baroque on Dec 10, 2010 2:53 AM CST via mobile reply actions  

Montreal would be good. the three other you could do that would be awesome to compare to are: Pittsburgh, Washington and Vancouver. I’ll probably knock out the Central this weekend.

by Casey Richey on Dec 10, 2010 8:12 AM CST up reply actions  

i could do a few as well.

pacific?

Harvester of tires, master of bad humor.
Troll nation unite!

by onevilklown on Dec 10, 2010 9:20 AM CST up reply actions  

I think WiM needs to make up like ten more stats not handled by the big boys, just to exert our nonexistant power.

by Apocalyptic0n3 on Dec 10, 2010 7:03 AM CST reply actions  

oh we had ’em last year with the fake awards

by Casey Richey on Dec 10, 2010 8:42 AM CST up reply actions  

Yeah, I remember those. I was thinking we do Hollinger-esque stats here, though. With formulas that a math major would have trouble deciphering.

by Apocalyptic0n3 on Dec 10, 2010 10:17 AM CST up reply actions  

Next post: the percentage of goals scored by Datsyuk during a game in which Mickey Redmond talks about composites. Although, that’d be easy: every goal he scores is during a game in which Mickey does that.

by Casey Richey on Dec 10, 2010 10:47 AM CST up reply actions  

The percentage of ice time Jiri Hudler has while Mickey or Ken reference Maltby and Draper having scored 50 goals in the minors.

by Brion on Dec 10, 2010 11:50 AM CST up reply actions  

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