Remaining Schedule Breakdown

by Casey Richey on Mar 12, 2010 3:41 PM CST in Opinion

Let me preface this post by saying this is no way meant to be an actual prediction, mainly for kicks and giggles and a way of looking at the percentages for each team based on home and away records.

The way I added them up is this. Negative points for opponent's total point percentage and home/away point percentage added up to the Detroit total point percentage and home/away point percentage. Point percentage, as I've used is basically how many games a team has earned points in.

Date	Team	Opp point percentage	Opp Home Pt %	Opp Away Pt %	Detroit point percentage	Detroit Home Pt %	Detroit Away Pt %	Total Prediction	Outcome
3/13	BUF	-0.6923		-0.6	0.6567	0.6969		0.0613	W
3/15	at CLG	-0.6418	-0.5714		0.6567		0.6176	0.0611	W
3/19	at EDM	-0.4179	-0.4857		0.6567		0.6176	0.3707	W
3/20	at VAN	-0.6567	-0.7742		0.6567		0.6176	-0.1566	L
3/22	PITT	-0.6716		-0.6363	0.6567	0.6969		0.0457	T
3/24	STL	-0.606		-0.69697	0.6567	0.6969		0.05063	W
3/26	MINN	-0.5606		-0.3939	0.6567	0.6969		0.3991	T
3/27	at NSH	-0.6119	-0.625		0.6567		0.6176	0.0374	T
3/30	EDM	-0.4179		-0.3326	0.6567	0.6969		0.6031	W
4/1	CBJ	-0.5588		-0.4286	0.6567	0.6969		0.3662	W
4/3	NSH	-0.6119		-0.6	0.6567	0.6969		0.1417	W
4/4	at PHI	-0.5909	-0.6471		0.6567		0.6176	0.0363	T
4/7	CBJ	-0.5588		-0.4286	0.6567	0.6969		0.3662	W
4/9	at CBJ	-0.5588	-0.6969		0.6567		0.6176	0.0186	L
4/11	at CHI	-0.7424	-0.8		0.6567		0.6176	-0.2681	L

The way a game is decided between win or loss is like this. Win is anything above .05 (or 5%). Ties for anything below 5% but above 2%. Negative points automatically make it a loss. Not an exact science by any means, and its not intended to be. Just a way to look at the schedule and predict based off of records thus far.

Final total: 7-3-5 (19 points) Yeah, the 5 is kind of unlikely in terms of that many ties. Just games I had trouble deciding one way or the other based on the points and previous games this year.

Final record: 39-26-17 (95 points)

The 95 points would put the Wings in the playoffs by way of James Mirtle's numbers.

How do you all think the Wings will end the season?

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Comments

i don't care how many points it takes

as long as the wings make it…i believe they will go…8-5-2 down the stretch and end with 94 points and make it as a 7 seed and the Flames being the 8th seed at 93 pts….with the preds on the outside with 91 pts

TULO = 2010 MVP!

Troy Tulowitzki: "When people think of the Rockies, I want them to think of a winning organization."

LETS GO WINGS!

by TuLoRocks2008 on Mar 12, 2010 4:00 PM CST reply actions

Now to make it really interesting

Predict the p% at the time the game is played and see how that makes a difference. The Canucks have a much tougher schedule than the Red Wings before they meet each other, which could make enough of a difference that, at the time, the Red Wings would be expected to win.

Of course, p% isn’t as meaningful as how teams do against each other. For example, based on p%, the Red Wings should not have won a single game against the Sharks this season. Or the Blackhawks, for that matter. Granted, they won’t win the season series, but they still can tie it up.

by bleep bloop on Mar 13, 2010 10:11 PM CST reply actions