True or False: Jimmy Howard will suffer the "sophomore slump"
by Casey Richey on Aug 13, 2010 11:52 AM CDT
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The first thing that faces a player heading into his second year is the concept of the "sophomore slump". You saw it last year with Steve Mason in Columbus and Detroit's own Jonathan Ericsson. Of course, the sophomore slump is only considered when its regarding a player that had a good first year to even put himself on the radar...such as a Calder Trophy finalist year like that of Jimmy Howard.
Howard took center stage in front of the third most scrutinizing fanbase in terms of goalie performance (behind Montreal and Toronto) and performed exceptionally. He placed in the top five in save percentage (.924, T-4th) and goals against average (2.26, 5th) while earning 37 of the 44 Detroit wins. He carried the team to the playoffs when it looked like the injury-depleted, half-Red Wings and half-Griffins would struggle to stay afloat. One of the bigger highlights of the season was his 51 save performance against LA and was essentially his announcement that he was one the scene for good. But will all of that carry over to the 2010-2011? Take the jump.
Jimmy Howard
#35 / Goalie / Detroit Red Wings
6-0
210
Mar 26, 1984
2009-2010 Stats
| GP | Wins | Losses | OTL | GA | GAA | SV% | SO |
| 63 | 37 | 15 | 10 | 141 | 2.26 | .924 | 3 |
Why it will happen: For starters, anything below his excellent .924 SV%, 37 wins and higher than 2.26 GAA will be considered a slump. But it shouldn't be. Those are three very good numbers that are going to be hard to match and even harder to surpass. Past that, however, Howard has shown difficulty controlling rebounds. If and when teams key in on this it will make for some ugly nights.
Why it won't happen: Howard's already shown that he can handle some intense pressure. He was thrust into the starting job early in the season last year and he dealt with it in a way that noone really imagined he could. He shows solid technique and if he is able to work on the rebound control he should be fine.
My take: False. I actually believe that under the right circumstances (i.e. everyone is healthy) that Howard could have an even better year than last year. He matured as the season went along and I think that given the summer to train as the number one guy he will pick up right where he left off last season.
Your turn, chime in with your thoughts on the matter.
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I think it’s inevitable that he takes at least a small step back. A .924 save percentage just isn’t sustainable even for the greatest goalies in the game, and Howard has yet to prove he’s that.
I think he’ll be good, not great, this coming season.
Blogging on hockey at Globe on Hockey
Fair enough. They are indeed lofty aspirations to equal or surpass a .924 and 2.26 but I do think (as others have mentioned below) that it is possible if the team around him stays healthy and gets back to puck possession hockey—something Jiri Hudler is underappreciated for.
by Casey Richey on Aug 13, 2010 1:47 PM CDT up reply actions
I am supremely confident
As plenty of people loved to point out, compared to Tyler Myers, who stole the Calder from him, Jimmy Howard is really old for a rookie. He also has one of the best support structures in front of and behind him. Other recent goaltender sophomore slumps can’t attest to having a great defense in front of them.
He might take a small step back from his great numbers, but only the most negative of Nancies will call that an actual “slump”
by J.J. from Kansas on Aug 13, 2010 11:59 AM CDT reply actions
I'm kind of feeling the same way you are
While I don’t think he’ll have a true “sophomore slump” ala Steve Mason in Columbus, he might not put up the same type of numbers he did last season. While his numbers will still be good, I don’t think it’s realistic to expect him to better those numbers by any significant amount, at least not yet. IF the team is healthy in front of him and plays like they have shown they can, Jimmy should get through his second full NHL season just fine.
Hard to argue with this
I don’t think there’s a question that his numbers have a good chance at going down from last year, but as most people have pointed out, the team in front of him should be better, so he won’t have to be “the” guy keeping them in games. A slump to me would be if his GAA gets above 3.00 and his SV% dips below .900. If that happens, then I think we’re looking at him in a “slump”. I would like to see a few more shutouts, though.
I’m just hoping that he can improve those shootout numbers from last year; it would be nice not to give away so many points given how competitive the Western Conference is.
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I voted true
only because statistically. It won’t be a true slump, just hard to match the numbers from the year before
In life, a man is either the hammer or the anvil. Ndamukong Suh is both
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That was my reasoning too
I don’t think we’ll view it as an actual “slump” though. His win totals might even increase if the team in front of him is better.
by handsomerob1 on Aug 14, 2010 11:59 PM CDT up reply actions
I want to say no, but after what Mason did last year, I can see it happening. Of course, Mason was on a much worse team and the team actually lost talent from the year before. In both cases, Howard’s situation is the exact opposite as we are a damn good team to begin with and only got better this summer.
by Apocalyptic0n3 on Aug 13, 2010 12:55 PM CDT reply actions
better year
Barring another barrage of catastrophic injuries, he’ll have a better team in front of him this year than he had last year, so I say:
- approx same GAA
- better SV%
- more wins
(Though we don’t know how the new rules regarding goalie pad size will affect things.)
by The Centerfielder on Aug 13, 2010 1:19 PM CDT reply actions
Fewer shots
If they stay healthy Howard will face fewer shots on average this year with the improved puck possession game. How will he adjust to this? Can he stay focused during the lulls on his end? We’ve seen quite a few goalies have a tough time adjusting to this in Detroit, Hasek struggled at first while Cujo never caught on, so how Howard deals with this change could be a big factor. I hope he does, it will give Detroit a steady keeper for the next few years, and allow us to point and laugh, hopefully, at Chicago’s musical goalies.
Can we just forget the Cujo days please? They still make me cringe.
by Apocalyptic0n3 on Aug 13, 2010 2:05 PM CDT up reply actions
This is a good point
Howard excelled in the games where he was being peppered with shots (like his 51 save game vs. LA). I want to see how he does when he’s seeing 20-25 shots per night instead.
by handsomerob1 on Aug 15, 2010 12:00 AM CDT up reply actions
Small slump
I believe Howard will have a difficult time repeating the numbers from last year, except for wins.
Goalies are a little like shooters, the more tape you have with them the easier they become to predict, Howard had the upper hand last year in that his strengths and weaknesses were somewhat unknown to the rest of the league, that won’t be the case this year.
If injuries are not as much of a problem this year as last, then we should also be in a position to control more games, as we have seen before that leads to the opponents having fewer shots in goals, which means the goalie can’t get a rythm going and also means that goals will deplete the save % more than if the goalie was seeing lots of shots.
My projection for Howard barring injury would be about 35-40 wins (if he starts full time those are very achievable, 2.30 GAA and .91 save %.
Steve Mason
I don’t think Mason gets a fair shake come on folks he plays on the Blue Jackets i don’t think Terry Sawchuck could have two stand out years in Ohio .
As for Jimmy he will be good maybe not as great as the poster above states once teams have alot of tape on you the upper hand is less . Look at Ozzy every few years he has to change his game to gain a new edge
Show me the CUP
In reality, he didn’t have the year that Steve Mason had in his rookie year. Howard has definitely shown areas where he needs to improve, Mason really had nowhere to go but down. Howard has to work on rebound control. That will make him a lot better.
and he was during the year
As the team got more comfortable with him, they learned where he tended to direct rebounds and were more likely to be there to gain control of the puck. Earlier in the season they were less familiar with Howard’s habits and didn’t play as well defensively in front of him because of the lack of understanding.
"It is a mistake to try to look too far ahead. The chain of destiny can only be grasped one link at a time." --Sir Winston Churchill (1874 – 1965)
It's up to Ozzie
As long as Ozzie doesn’t just stink when he’s in there as the backup, so that Howie has to play 60+ games again, then I think Howard will be fine. If Ozzie goes 2-8 in his first 10 or something crazy like that, the Howie will have to play every night and that may manifest itself into a problem.
Just my .02
Smitty
Have to be a sophomore to have a sophomore slump
Meh.
The guy’s been in the AHL/NHL for over 5 seasons now. While he is a sophomore by the textbook definition, I think it would be pretty safe to say that if he has a down year this season, then last season was the exception, not the rule. Maybe he’s just a late bloomer, but by today’s standards a guy who’s 26 and has over 180 “pro level” games under his belt is far from a sophomore.
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