FanPost

Scoring Chance Tracking: Detroit vs. Ottawa, 10-7-2011

I've volunteered to join Derek Zona's Scoring Chance Project and will be keeping track of the Red Wings scoring chances throughout the season.

Firstly, the scoring chances are based off a rough, 'home plate-like' area in the offensive zone. The zone is draw like so, thanks to New Jersey Devils' SBN blog, In Lou We Trust:

 

Scoring_area_medium_medium

 

Now, my guess is that early in the season the numbers won't be as clear-cut and, well, good. I don't know how many of you have attempted to track scoring chances for a game, but the amount of subjectivity is pretty astounding and I found myself drifting off into thought about what needed to be different about the play that just occurred that I did/didn't rule as a scoring chance for me to make the opposite decision of the one I made. Then I scrambled to rewind my DVR back the 45 seconds I missed.

Once I've got probably ten games or so under my belt, I'll feel more comfortable about my data, but for the first few weeks, think of these are pretty good, but probably not great, snapshots of what happened. If anything, I'm probably over-recording the number of scoring chances that occurred, but I'm not sure yet.

All of this is 100% made possible by the one, the only Vic Ferrari who has a wonderful app at his Time On Ice site that we just plug our data into and it spits out these nifty charts that I'll present below the jump. Onward!

Period Totals EV PP 5v3 PP SH 5v3 SH
1 7 4 7 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2 7 9 6 7 1 0 0 0 0 2 0 0
3 6 6 3 3 3 1 0 0 0 2 0 0
4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Totals 20 19 16 14 4 1 0 0 0 4 0 0

 

Detroit's numbers should be bolded. If not, they are always the left side of each column. So they out chanced Ottawa 7-4 in the first period, were out chanced 7-9 in the second and even in the third at 6-6.

We out chanced the Senators, but a strong finish to the second period for Ottawa closed the gap. Given that Ottawa was also down 3+ goals most of the game as well, their urgency in trying to come back plays an effect here -- usually called score effects. Detroit was getting out chanced for a bit in the third period (something Mickey mentioned on the telecast) but that wasn't entirely due to what Ottawa was doing; rather it had more to do with Detroit's sitting back protecting the lead.

Individually, here's how Detroit's players fared, sorted by jersey numbers:

 

  EVEN  PP  PK +/-Chance%
4 J. KINDL 13:24 5 2 2:17 1 0 0:00 0 0 4 0.714
5 N. LIDSTROM 16:31 5 4 5:40 3 1 1:17 0 2 1 0.556
8 J. ABDELKADER 13:24 2 3 0:12 0 0 1:46 0 3 -4 0.400
11 D. CLEARY 10:56 5 2 1:30 1 0 0:00 0 0 4 0.714
13 P. DATSYUK 11:26 5 4 4:26 1 1 0:22 0 1 0 0.556
18 I. WHITE 17:26 6 3 5:03 3 1 0:00 0 0 5 0.667
20 D. MILLER 6:55 2 2 0:00 0 0 1:27 0 0 0 0.500
23 B. STUART 17:39 5 8 0:47 0 0 2:18 0 2 -5 0.385
26 J. HUDLER 11:43 5 4 1:16 0 0 0:00 0 0 1 0.556
35 J. HOWARD 23:41 16 14 8:44 4 1 3:35 0 4 1 0.533
40 H. ZETTERBERG 15:41 7 4 5:01 3 1 0:05 0 0 5 0.636
43 D. HELM 12:51 2 3 0:10 0 0 1:46 0 3 -4 0.400
44 T. BERTUZZI 14:13 2 5 1:11 0 1 0:00 0 0 -4 0.286
48 C. EMMERTON 6:49 2 1 0:00 0 0 1:44 0 1 0 0.667
51 V. FILPPULA 16:22 7 7 4:08 3 0 0:00 0 0 3 0.500
52 J. ERICSSON 13:52 5 4 0:10 0 0 1:17 0 2 -1 0.556
55 N. KRONWALL 16:36 6 7 3:31 1 0 2:18 0 2 -2 0.462
93 J. FRANZEN 15:17 7 5 3:33 1 0 0:00 0 0 3 0.583
96 T. HOLMSTROM 6:44 2 2 4:45 3 0 0:00 0 0 3 0.500

 

The +/- column is the same as a player's +/- for goals for/against, but done at the chance level. It includes all aspects of the game: even strength, penalty kill, power play.

Ian White and Henrik Zetterberg both led the way with +5 in the chance department, while Brad Stuart had a rough night at -5. The Bertuzzi-Abdelkader-Helm line wasn't particularly good either, but Zetterberg-Cleary-Filppula had a fantastic night; and it wasn't just Zetterberg.

Even before looking at the chance data, I thought Jakub Kindl had a very solid game and it is nice to see that in the data as well.

Below is all of the data I tracked -- I had 39 total chances in the game. But, like I mentioned before, I am probably counting a few that aren't really chances at all as I'm just trying to get my bearings in this project.

Team Period Time Note DET Opponent
DET 1 18:54 Cleary from Hudler 11 13 23 26 35 55 4 5 11 14 41 93 5v5
OTT 1 16:20 Foligno, wrap around 23 35 44 51 55 93 15 17 25 41 65 71 5v5
OTT 1 16:10 Foligno 23 35 44 51 55 93 24 25 41 55 65 71 5v5
OTT 1 14:10 Spezza missed one-timer 13 23 26 35 51 55 4 5 9 19 21 41 5v5
DET 1 8:05 Franzen 5 18 35 40 51 93 17 24 25 41 65 71 5v5
OTT 1 6:03 De Costa 5 11 13 18 26 35 4 5 24 25 41 71 5v5
DET 1 5:02 Franzen deflection 23 35 40 51 55 93 11 14 17 41 65 93 5v5
DET 1 4:20 Filppula 4 35 40 51 52 93 2 9 21 24 41 55 5v5
DET 1 3:59 GOAL: Bertuzzi breakaway from Helm 4 8 35 43 44 52 5 24 25 41 55 71 5v5
DET 1 2:24 Filppula 5 18 35 40 51 93 2 9 19 21 41 55 5v5
DET 1 1:53 Zetterberg from Franzen 5 18 35 40 51 93 2 9 19 21 41 55 5v5
OTT 2 19:33 Michalek 23 35 40 51 55 93 9 17 19 21 41 65 5v5
DET 2 18:21 GOAL: Lidstrom; OTT Turnover (Phillips) 5 8 18 35 43 44 4 5 11 14 41 93 5v5
DET 2 15:44 Zetterberg 5 18 35 40 51 96 4 5 9 22 41 5v4
OTT 2 14:29 Neil 8 23 35 43 44 52 4 5 24 25 41 71 5v5
OTT 2 13:20 Smith on a rebound 4 11 13 26 35 52 15 16 17 22 41 65 5v5
DET 2 12:24 Franzen from Zetterberg 23 35 40 51 55 93 2 9 19 21 41 55 5v5
DET 2 11:57 Zetterberg on a rebound 18 35 40 51 55 93 4 19 21 41 55 71 5v5
DET 2 10:20 GOAL: Emmerton from Miller 4 20 35 48 52 96 11 14 17 41 65 93 5v5
DET 2 9:22 GOAL: Hudler from Datsyuk 4 11 13 26 35 52 2 15 16 22 41 55 5v5
OTT 2 9:07 Michalek 23 35 40 51 55 93 4 5 9 19 21 41 5v5
OTT 2 8:54 Spezza failed redirect 23 35 40 51 55 93 4 5 9 19 21 41 5v5
OTT 2 6:43 Spezza splits the defense 5 8 35 43 52 9 17 19 21 41 55 4v5
OTT 2 6:40 Michalek net-mouth jam attempt 13 23 35 48 55 9 17 19 21 41 65 4v5
OTT 2 5:36 Neil wrister from slot 5 20 35 40 51 52 4 5 24 25 41 71 5v5
DET 2 1:18 Cleary one-timer from Datsyuk 11 13 23 26 35 55 4 5 25 41 71 93 5v5
OTT 2 0:16 Greening net-mouth jam attempt 5 8 18 35 43 44 2 14 15 22 41 55 5v5
DET 3 16:52 Hudler from the slot from Zetterberg 11 13 23 26 35 55 9 17 19 21 41 65 5v5
DET 3 16:48 GOAL: Ian White shot from the point, screen by Miller 5 18 20 35 48 96 4 5 11 24 41 71 5v5
OTT 3 15:46 Neil shot on two-on-one 4 8 35 43 44 52 2 14 25 41 55 93 5v5
OTT 3 14:45 Smith on Red Wings turnover in slot 20 23 35 48 55 96 15 16 17 22 41 65 5v5
OTT 3 14:11 GOAL: Michalek redirect in front 5 13 18 26 35 96 4 5 9 19 21 41 5v5
OTT 3 11:38 GOAL: Michalek from Spezza 8 23 35 43 55 9 19 21 41 55 65 4v5
DET 3 10:54 Cleary on a rebound 4 11 13 26 35 52 15 16 17 22 41 65 5v5
DET 3 10:18 White redirect from Zetterberg 5 11 13 18 35 40 4 5 9 22 41 5v4
DET 3 9:32 Holmstrom on a one-timer 4 35 51 55 93 96 2 14 15 41 55 5v4
DET 3 3:51 Zetterberg back-hander 5 18 35 40 51 96 2 11 14 17 41 5v4
OTT 3 1:31 GOAL: Kuba shot from the point, screen by Greening 5 8 35 43 52 5 11 14 17 41 93 4v5
OTT 3 1:05 Smith failed one-timer 5 13 18 35 40 44 4 5 15 22 41 5v4

 

I was also keeping notes on what happened. I'll try to get back to the comments section tomorrow to clear up anything that is confusing.

This is a fanpost written by a WIIM community member. The views and opinions expressed here are that member's and do not necessarily reflect the views of the site itself.

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