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Off-Day Open Thread Philosophical Friday 2

This is what teams are going to have to try to get the puck through in the playoffs against Detroit

The Red Wings lost their #2 conference ranking last night to the San Jose Sharks, who beat the Dallas Stars to put them three points out of the final playoff spot with six games to go.  The Wings continue to tread water at the top of the Central Division and now see their lead over 2nd place Nashville down to four points.  Even worse, the 7-goal loss against St. Louis now has the Wings' goal differential below the Predators'.  It's all well and good to have scored 41 more goals than your opposition, but it's worrisome to have allowed a whopping 42 more into your own net, especially when defense wins championships.

You know what though?  I'm not as worried as I could, and probably should be.  Yes, I am worried.  It's that time of year when you're supposed to be worried. But, here are a few good reasons for hope:

  • Remember Pavel Datsyuk?  The guy is amazing, electric even.  I'm not throwing all of my hope onto just his shoulders, but he simply makes everybody around him better.  Want some stats to back that up? (of course you do!)  Without Datsyuk, Detroit gives up 3.48 goals-per-game, scores only 3.12 and earns only 52% of possible points on their schedule.  With Datsyuk, Detroit gives up 2.67 goals per game, scores 3.25, and earns 68% of their possible points. 
  • Nick Lidstrom is currently averaging just over 23:30 per game. He leads the Wings' defense in that regards, but that's his regular season number.  I know that what happened on Wednesday was one of the five-worst games he's likely had in his career, but the guy is money.  When the 2nd season rolls around, look for him to add about 3-4 minutes per night.  Those are minutes that guys like Jonathan Ericsson won't spend covering other teams' top lines.
  • Come to think of it, there isn't a single Red Wings' forward averaging 20 minutes or more per game.  Hart Trophy hopeful Corey Perry is 2nd only to Ilya Kovalchuk among forwards, chugging along at 22:07.  These guys are professional athletes and can handle playing two and a half minutes more per game than Zetterberg, but more minutes in the regular season means more grind.  In fact, Z is the only Red Wings forward in the top 100 for total ice time this season.  Injuries and whatnot aside, Detroit has been getting by on their scoring depth.  No other team in the league has as many 10-goal scorers as Detroit (with 12).  Those suddenly-frightening Sharks?  They have seven.  If Torrey Mitchell can find the net once more, that will give them 8.  The incredibly balanced, methodical, and scary Canucks have 9 (which could jump to 11 if their two 9-goal scorers hit their marks).  Any playoff team worth their salt can shut down or at least severely limit a team's top two lines.  Depth scoring can be very important when it comes to tipping the scales back to your favor.

Listen, I know that there are still issues.  The Wings give up too many goals; the Wings don't put together full 60-minute efforts; other teams have consistently been hotter over the second half of the season.  I know.  You're going to worry no matter what I tell you.  Good on you for that.  The worry makes the victories that much sweeter.

Follow me after the jump for a few more thoughts from around the league.

Star-divide

  • I really didn't want to have to discuss Todd Bertuzzi two weeks in a row, but his actions on Monday forced it.  Listen, there's still no comparing Matt "4 suspensions since I became a Penguin and a few more deserved" Cooke.  But, by now everybody knows everybody else's feelings on that particular hit on Ryan Johnson.  What I want to know from all the ivory-tower-living howler monkeys who keep screaming about this hit is where are you every time somebody on a Marc Crawford-coached team lays a cheap hit?  Yes, Bert is the one who did the deed, but it just seems nice that the guy who ordered it done never seems to have his name dragged through that memory whenever it comes up.  Mario Lemieux was sure onto something when he said that the league needs to start finding teams responsible for the actions of their players.  For one thing, they can start behind the benches.
  • Congratulations to Steve Yzerman and the Tampa Bay Lightning for clinching a playoff spot with their victory last night.  I'm not sure about their chances to go deep this season, but I know that they're infinitely better than a team that won't make the cut.  Watching them develop their identity over the course of the season has been a lot of fun.
  • Now that the congrats are out of the way, I'll remind everybody that Tampa Bay has three fewer points than Detroit in the standings and the Wings have technically not clinched a spot yet.  The differences between the conferences is growing to be more than statistical aberration.  I'll maintain that the top contenders in the East could make a good series with anybody, but the also-rans and the early-droppers are just terrible.
  • Speaking of terrible groups of teams (SEGUE!), can we start to temper some of this editorial drool we're seeing for how far-and-away dominant the Canucks are in the standings with a look at the rest of the Northwest division?  As a total, the Northwest has gained the fewest points of any division (403 compared to the Pacific's leading total of 468).  If the two teams at the bottom of that division weren't finishing their seasons against one another, it would be technically possible for Vancouver to have as many points as Edmonton and Colorado combined.  You still have to win the games, but Vancouver is 16-2-2 against their hapless division rivals.  Does this hurt them going into tough playoff series?  We've seen the Wings play two very close-fought games with the Canucks this season.  I'll say that Vancouver has all the right tools in place (at least on paper) to win the cup, but they have to prove they can actually do it.

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Playoffs

There’s not a single team (minus Vancouver, which I’ll get to in a minute) who is entering the playoffs that doesn’t have some sort of glaring weakness. With the Wings, it’s their team defense (last in the West among playoff teams in GA). Anyone who has watched this team for the last month can’t help but be concerned, but this is also the same team that rolled through the first 2 months of the season. Remember only losing 3 games in November? That team is still out on the ice, regardless of what anyone thinks. JJ’s right: we can’t stop you from worrying (hell, I’m a little worried), but I believe that when the playoffs roll around, this team will be good. If they lose, they lose; but it won’t be from lack of effort.

I love that the Wings are saying the right things after Wednesday’s debacle. However, all the talk about needing to “wake up” won’t mean anything if they don’t prove it on the ice. I fully anticipate the Wings stomping the Predators, because they don’t want the Preds within 2 points going into the final week of the season.

Kudos to the Lightning on securing a playoff spot, thus extending Yzerman’s streak of his teams making the playoffs to 20 straight seasons. He’s really putting his stamp on the team, and while I don’t expect them to go too far in the playoffs, it’s remarkable how much they have turned it around.

Vancouver has every right to be confident heading into the playoffs. They are #1 in goals for, goals against, power play and penalty killing. A 7 game series against them would be extremely hard to win, but it can be done. I still maintain that Luongo needs to put up or shut up in the playoffs (as evidenced by his declining SV% and rising GAA 3 straight years), but outside of the Wings, they are my favourite to win the Cup. I don’t think playing in the division will hurt them; how many years did we see the Wings completely decimate the Central (admittedly the worst division in hockey for a wihle) and be successful in the postseason? Hell, they are 12-5-3 against the Central and 13-5-2 against the Pacific. It’s hard not to like them to win it all given the way they’ve played all year. But being the favourite and actually winning are two different things. We can only watch to see how it all plays out.

by Amerinadian on Apr 1, 2011 3:18 PM CDT reply actions  

Momentum

Great blog! I am new to it but love it, as you are not only knowledgeable about the Wings and hockey, but you are also very fair in your critique.

I always laugh when people say this team or that team is playing hot and it bodes well for the playoffs. In spite of our President’s trophies in the past, that never helped us win a cup. It meant nothing. Our late season flurry last year made no difference on how far we went intot he playoffs. In fact, look at Montreal last year. Granted, they were a Cinderella story, but still. Barely getting in and going as far as they went was incredible!

I think our problem is twofold. One, our D breaks down unless Stuart and Nick or Raffy are on the ice. Raffy has been 85% due to injuries. Otherwise, our D lets them have too many chances, and Jimmy is a better goalie when he has a support system.

Second, I think there may be some internal strife with the team/coaching. It doesn’t make sense to have all this talent and not see it flourish. They have to get on the same page or it will be a short post season. If they don’t respect or like Babcock, their effort/lack of heart would make sense. I honestly don’t know what it is. I hope they can figure it our quickly.

I still have all the faith in these guys. I personally think their ego took a major bludgeoning with the St. Louis loss, and it might have been the best thing to happen to this team. We have too much talent and Cup winners to go down like this.

by Docberk on Apr 1, 2011 4:54 PM CDT reply actions  

Agreed on the D

I think you’re right about the defensemen and specifically Rafalski. I also think that part of the defensive problems stems from the forwards not backchecking as aggressively as they had in years past. That could tie into the concept of the team tuning out Babcock, but I just simply don’t want to believe that. I think that the way they perform in the playoffs is going to go a long way toward convincing me one way or another whether I want the team to undergo some changes either to personnel or coaching in the offseason.

I too am hoping that the St. Louis embarrassment has renewed everybody’s commitment to working hard to win games. We all know the Wings have the talent to do so, but talent alone won’t win enough games, you have to have the work ethic.

Anyway, thanks for stopping by. Always great to see a new face around.

by J.J. from Kansas on Apr 1, 2011 5:02 PM CDT up reply actions  

The forwards are a lot to blame...

They haven’t done well in the offensive zone with sustained pressure and too often are all caught deep allowing for an easy transition for the opponent. That has led to numerous odd man rushes and it tires everyone out. It also makes it very easy on the opponents D-men because they aren’t getting worn down in a cycle game.

by dewman8810 on Apr 1, 2011 11:56 PM CDT up reply actions  

I apologize for the novel in advance

I think that this team is trying to walk a fine line between balancing the health of the team vs. the momentum. They have, when they played hard at the beginning of the year, destroyed teams and made it look easy. And I think that when you combine that happening with the injuries that they have suffered and the fact that they won a lot of games right be fore the post season last year and the momentum died on them part-way through the playoffs, they may be trying to play it too safe this year.

Also keep in mind that there isn’t a player on this team who has missed the playoffs while wearing the winged wheel, and some of these guys have never played for another team, while I appreciate all of the success that this team has had over the years it may be that some of the players in the locker room feel invincible just because of the uniform they are wearing. Please tell me that I’m off base on that because I really hope that I am.

The other problem that I have with this team is the age old question of experience vs. youth. I think that you need the youth pushing the experienced to give just a little bit more effort on occasion and by letting our guys over mature in GR we dont always get it. Also I think that our youth may finally be starting to see some ill effects from constantly drafting at the bottom of the pack.

Does anyone else see the problem with that? I hate rewarding teams that suck it up for years in a row by giving them high draft picks years in a row. I know that the point is to promote parity in the league but dangit I want to see teams rewarded for doing well. I would love to see the league institute a rule where if you cannot draft in the top 5 in consecutive years, aka the Pens, and see what that does to the talent in the league. I know that rant was way off topic but I just had to get it out there.

by Hornecker on Apr 1, 2011 8:56 PM CDT reply actions  

In a way, there is a reward

The Red Wings are one of the clubs who can consistently get skill players to sign with them for less than open-market value, which is helpful.

However, I see your point there and do wish there were something fair that could be done in this situation. I’m not sure about cutting off a team’s ability to draft within the top 5 in consecutive years, but I do think that a system by which every team outside of the playoffs has a chance at the #1 overall pick would work. I would almost go so far as to suggest that the #17-ranked team in the league (the best team in the league to miss the playoffs) should get the best shot at the #1 pick. I doubt that many teams would intentionally try to tank late to miss the playoffs by one spot.

As for youthful exuberance needed among the Wings? The idea has merit, but I don’t recall much of a youth movement necessary in 2002 or 1998. I think the desire to win another for Lidstrom can be just as much a motivator as the hunger that the kids who haven’t been there before would fight with. However, I can’t say that your idea of complacency is completely off-base. We’ve seen it sneak into the Wings’ locker room before. Hell, it doesn’t even have to be youth to fight this off. Dallas Drake was a big heart-and-soul guy who came on to help us win the 2008 cup and he was pretty far away from his youth at that point. It certainly would be nice if I felt that game in and game out, there were somebody on the Red Wings roster who exhibited the kind of hunger that Drake did for that season.

by J.J. from Kansas on Apr 1, 2011 9:17 PM CDT up reply actions  

I think that I could even be happy with a system that gives all the teams that don’t make the playoffs the chance to get the first pick, as long as its either in order of ranking (i.e. highest ranking gets the best chance) or everyone is equal.

In 1998 it was for Konstantinov, 2002 was the All Star team (that team could have won most of the regular season games by playing for 5 minutes, but Scotty wouldn’t let them, not to mention it was Scotty’s last year), 2008 Drake was the guy because he was a likeable guy who was at the end of a career without much post season success. And the thing with Drake is he was a guy who could give the team a spark, not always by scoring but by delivering a huge hit, sticking up for his teammates, one of the big things that I don’t see in the team any more is the grit to go and (legally) knock a guy on his keister for looking at Dats or Lids or Z the wrong way. If they had a couple of guys who would play that way every single shift, while keeping sound positioning, it is possible, this team wouldhave much more of a spark.

As for this year the team could be feeling the same way we do, if they win one for Lids that means he retires, and I don’t think that they want him to retire anytime soon even if they always want to win the Cup.

by Hornecker on Apr 1, 2011 10:12 PM CDT up reply actions  

Nick won't retire if they win this year.

He’ll play at least one more year. Next season will be his 20th, and I think he’ll play for that.

by dewman8810 on Apr 1, 2011 11:59 PM CDT up reply actions  

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