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Why the Red Wings (so far) have the best chance of taking it all


OK, so we hear it every year:  "The Wings won't go all the way," or "The Wings don't have what it takes to win a Stanley Cup this year," or "The Wings are old, tired, and banged up," or "The Wings (fill in the blank -- something about how the Wings will lose)."  It's fair to say that the Vancouver Canucks are this year's favorite to win the Western Conference, and it's also fair to say that the folks in the Bay Area have finally learned to stop over-hyping their beloved San Jose Sharks, lest they be cursed and tank in the first or second round.  But again, our hometown Red Wings are largely not being taken seriously as Stanley Cup contenders.  So for the naysayers (and to deliberately piss off the haters who seem to have a three-word vocabulary consisting of "Red Wings suck") I offer my reasons why I believe Mike Babcock and his crew look better than any other playoff team right now for winning the Western Conference:

1.  The Red Wings are the only team that swept the first round.  The Canucks were in prime position to do the same and literally fell apart in Game 4 against a Blackhawks team that had only one additional advantage they did not have previously -- the return of Dave Bolland (EDIT:  Throw in the loss of Brent Seabrook and it's basically a wash).  For a team that supposedly dominated the entire West during the regular season, they literally came unglued.  As for San Jose, the two games they have won were overtime wins (one of which involved overcoming a 4-goal deficit) against a team that is playing without their star player, Anze Kopitar, and the Los Angeles Kings blanked them in Game 2.  Yes, we all know Coach Babcock repeatedly says any NHL team can beat any other NHL team on any given day, but the embarassing Canucks loss and the struggles of the Sharks suggest chinks in their armor.

2.  The Red Wings handled the Phoenix Coyotes without the presence of Henrik Zetterberg for the whole series, not to mention the notable absences of Johan Franzen and Mike Modano.  The Canucks and the Sharks have had their first-string and second-string varsity players on the ice every night (with the exception of the Canucks' Manny Malholtra).  Makes a great argument against anyone who claims the Red Wings are lacking in depth.

3.  The Red Wings are playing the best all-around hockey out of the three division champions.  I was very concerned going into the playoffs about the Wings' defense, but they have tightened up their defensive play and have made very few defensive errors -- and even when they have, Jimmy Howard has held the net and has made some amazing saves.  Their offense is producing bigtime, and the power play has been very effective at deflating the Coyotes.  The only area needing some work is the penalty kill.  Vancouver looked very good on offense, defense, and special teams during the first three games, but then in Game 4 they suffered a complete lapse of -- what do I call it?  Discipline?  No, that's only part of it...Teamwork?  Nah, they still played as a team...how about ICE PRESENCE?  Sure, you can argue Roberto Luongo got hurt late in the first period of Game 4, but from what I saw his "injury" involved slow reaction time, NOT slow movement.  Neither does his performance excuse that of the rest of the team, which allowed 7 GOALS!!!  Heck, the most the Wings put up against the Coyotes was 6 (which, by the way, is the number of goals Luongo let go before he got yanked).  San Jose has pulled out some tough wins, but they've also been shut out in a game they really should have won and have really needed to "dig deep" to win those two games.  Would they be able to do so against a tougher offensive threat like Vancouver or Detroit?  HIGHLY doubtful...

4.  The Red Wings are "sharing the wealth" better than any other team.  Detroit leads the playoff teams with a total of 18 goals so far, compared to 11 by Vancouver and 9 by the Sharks (in all fairness, however, the Sharks have only played three games, but I seriously doubt they'll be able to put up 10 goals in Game 4 to pull ahead of the Wings).  In the case of Vancouver, Daniel Sedin has scored four of their goals.  The Wings also have the widest "spread" -- 13 Wings have scored goals and 16 Wings have at least one point.  There are only three Red Wings aside from goaltender Jimmy Howard who don't have a point so far (Kris Draper, Brad Stuart, and Justin Abdelkader), and only Abdelkader is in the negative with a -1 point rating.  By contrast, the Canucks have six players without a point (Raffi Torres, Aaron Rome, Keith Ballard, Maxim LaPierre, Victor Oreskovich, and Tanner Glass), and they have a whopping eight players at -1 or worse.  The San Jose Sharks have five players without a point (Jamal Myers, Scott NicholBen Eager, Mark-Edouard Vlasic, and Justin Braun) and they have six players at -1 or worse. 

5.  OK, so let's talk about Jimmy Howard.  Many sportswriters and those supposedly "in the know" claim he doesn't have the chops to stand up against netminders like veteran Roberto Luongo or Stanley Cup winner Antti Niemi.  Let's compare, shall we?  Jimmy Howard has a 2.50 goal-against-average, a save percentage of .915, and has allowed 10 goals in 4 games.  Roberto Luongo has a 2.95 GAA, a save percentage of .907, and has allowed 11 goals in 4 games.  Antti Niemi has a GAA of 3.87, a save percentage of .853, and has allowed 10 goals in 3 games.  Hmmm...call me crazy, but it sounds like ol' Howie is holding his own pretty darned well...

6.  The factor that I believe is going to make the biggest difference in this year's Stanley Cup playoffs is EXPERIENCE.  Yes, we all know that Vancouver and San Jose have been here before, but we also know that they don't have as much experience down the stretch as the Red Wings do.  The Wings know only too well how grueling it is to win the 16 games needed to hoist Lord Stanley's Cup, and they have consistently shown greater resilience and a better ability to find ways to win than any other team in the Western Conference.

Now, I know some will say I'm ignoring the battle between the Anaheim Ducks and the Nashville Predators.  Don't think for a second that I have counted either of those teams out.  Neither have I counted out the L.A. Kings or the Chicago Blackhawks.  There's always the possibility that the "favorites" could end up going down at the hands of an up-and-coming team that wants it more.  Having said that, however, I've taken a good look at the other three teams and still believe, based on the reasons cited above, the Red Wings are looking better than any other playoff team in the Western Conference right now.  A lot of things can happen between now and the Cup Finals, so let's just say the Wings are in prime position now and, as long as they keep doing what they have been doing so far and work Zetterberg back into the lineup successfully when he's ready, my money is on the Wings in the West -- scratch that, my money is on the Wings getting their fifth Stanley Cup in 14 years.  Sedin twins and Joe Thornton:  Be afraid.  Be VERY afraid!

Naysayers and haters, flame away!

Comment 23 comments  |  3 recs  | 

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Not a naysayer. Not a hater.

Actually completely in agreement. It will eventually be Wings and Canucks. I actually would prefer the Wings face Nashville and then Chicago as these West coast games are killing me…but there is no way the Canucks are losing three straight games to the Hawks.

Ultimately it will be the Wings in the finals…and Philly will go down at the hands of the Wings yet once again. Won’t be a sweep like last time, but the other teams in the league have got to be sweating bullets knowing what just happened to Phoenix withOUT Zetterberg, and Mule in Game 4.

On a side note…love your av. I have those on my sleeves right now as well, though I’m hoping to get one added next spring.

Don't Panic!

by 42jeff on Apr 21, 2011 9:07 AM CDT reply actions  

So you're picking the Flyers to win the East?

The match-ups in the East are at least as interesting (if not more so) than those in the West, and Philadelphia looks good so far. Have you notided, however, that Pittsburgh is leading Tampa Bay WITHOUT Sid the Kid and Evgeni Malkin? Also, have you seen the way Montreal is playing lately? You’re probably right about the Flyers taking the East, but I’m holding out for Montreal, simply because I’d love nothing more than an Original Six match-up for the Stanley Cup Finals.

Good luck making Senior…I’m close to retirement, and I’m CAT B Reserve, so a promotion means another move. I’m happy where I am and I’ve moved four times in the last four years, so if staying in place means retiring as an E-7, so be it.

P.S. I also know where my towel is. “Reverse primary thrust, Marvin…Open airlock number three, Marvin…Marvin, can you pick up that piece of paper? Here I am, brain the size of a planet, and they ask me to pick up a piece of paper…”

by MotownSarge on Apr 21, 2011 9:32 AM CDT reply actions  

Well-said

I am very confident in this Red Wings team and not as confident that what we saw of the late regular season Sharks and of the Canucks this year can keep up the playoff mentality.

That said every team remaining in the playoffs is defensively tough and able to score goals. There is no easy route to the cup anymore. That’s why getting through the first round quickly is so important.

Very proud of my team for accomplishing htis.

by J.J. from Kansas on Apr 21, 2011 9:56 AM CDT reply actions  

Good post

I agree with what you say. This team reminds me a lot of the 2008 team, and it’s very exciting. The long rest ahead of them is crucial, because they’ve got a tough West opponent (likely) waiting for round 2, and probably round 3 if they make it there.

Re #2: This is probably the most key aspect of the first round…Detroit swept a very good and gritty Phoenix team without it’s second best player, shoot without player 1B (hard to call Z “second”, even if Dats is clearly 1A right now). If that’s not depth, I don’t know what is. And depth has been the one constant over the past many cup winners. You know what else is constant? Cup winners can score. Detroit this year is leaps and bounds ahead of where they were last year offensively, scoring 4.5(!!!) goals per game against a Phoenix team known for its aggressive defense. Sure, Bryz was off his game, but I’m inclined to think the Red Wings’ relentless attack had more to do with it than Bryz’s own mental fortitude.

Re #5: This kind of follows my above point, but I am completely convinced now Howard has what it takes to be a successful playoff goalie. Last game was a perfect example…you’re not going to be 100% perfect all the time, and Howard clearly looked shaky early on. To me, it had the feeling of “an off day” for the goalie, where Detroit would need at least 5 goals to win. And yet, Howard has so many KEY SAVES at KEY TIMES. Just like Ozzie. Just like Grant Fuhr. That’s mental fortitude, and it’s more important to Detroit than a goalie who can steal a game. Howard certainly might steal a game, but that’s never what Detroit has asked him to do and he shouldn’t have to. He just needs to make a few good saves at the right time…and he did that late in the game, especially a couple of times in the 3rd. Howard definitely has what it takes. That trait in a goalie is extremely hard to find. Of course, it remains to be seen how well he does agianst offensive powerhouses SJ or Vancouver, but I am more confident in him now having seen his mental fortitude in the Phoenix series.

And of course, experience means everything. It’s almost unfair to other teams that Detroit has so much of it…but that experience is the one constant among all the cups they got, and it’s the one thing that makes me believe they can make these runs year in and year out. Experience willed game 2’s victory despite nearly choking a 4-goal lead…imagine if LA had that same experience, no way they’d lose game 2. Experience willed Detroit to jump out of the gate on the road, knowing that Phoenix would obviously be hyped up to win in front of the home crowd. Experience is the unfair advantage Detroit will seemingly always have.

That being said, the PK has GOT to get better. That’s a glaring weakness right now. We’ll see how that goes…

by tehGOALIE on Apr 21, 2011 10:53 AM CDT reply actions  

You also had a good post...

…and I just have a few comments to make on what you said:

1. Yes, Stanley Cup winners CAN score. You don’t win games if you don’t score, and the fact that 13 of the 19 players other than Jimmy Howard have goals is VERY encouraging. My big concern going into this playoff season was the defense. I’ve heard it said before that offense wins you the President’s Trophy but defense wins you the Stanley Cup, and I’m inclined to agree. If you had asked me about the defense in the last 10 regular season Wings games (last game against Chicago at the United Center notwithstanding), my reply would have been “Defense? WHAT defense?” I was worried that the defense would fall apart in front of Jimmy Howard as it did in front of Manny Legace when the Wings were eliminated in the first round against Edmonton — was that ‘03? Thankfully, the Wings are getting back to the fundamentals that have made them playoff contenders for the past 20 years — back-checking, blocking shots, shutting down shooting lanes, etc. I guess it isn’t either offense or defense that produces winners over time — it’s a combination of both.

2. Don’t forget that three of the ten goals scored by the Coyotes were actually “given” to them by misdirections off Wings’ defensemen. That speaks even more to Howard’s ability to mind the net and make key saves at key times as you indicated, but on the flipside it indicates another area the Wings have to be careful about — protecting the puck on both sides of the ice.

3. Either the penalty kill has to get A LOT better and FAST or the Wings have to stay out of the penalty box. Good luck with the latter — we all know the Wings were one of the least penalized teams in the NHL during the regular season, and then we see SIX or SEVEN penalties in one game?!?!! I think the Wings are playing with a considerable level of discipline right now, but they could really help themselves if they straightened up just a little and avoided taking some stupid penalties. See, I’m not about to whine about penalties when I see the replays and the infractions committed by Wings players are pretty freaking obvious. They need to rein that in.

4. If the Wings have to play San Jose in the next round and Vancouver for the conference finals, it’ll be tough but it can be done. I daresay the Wings are the only team in the West that can stand up to the Canucks (even though their performance in Game 4 against Chicago should be coined “Disaster on Ice”). If there’s an upset in the West I’m betting on Nashville taking out Anaheim, and I don’t see either the Ducks or the Preds beating Vancouver. Let’s hope the red-and-white wheeled warriors get a chance to perform a British Columbia beat-down!

by MotownSarge on Apr 21, 2011 11:25 AM CDT reply actions  

Nice post

Not a lot to add to what has already been said. For me, the biggest difference between the regular season Wings and the playoff Wings has been their team defense. 5-on-5, they limited the Coyotes to very few quality scoring chances, as most of their damage was done on the PP. The emergence of Kronwall as a legit stud on the 2nd defensive pairing just made other teams realize that avoiding Lidstrom is not going to guarantee they have a good matchup.

by Amerinadian on Apr 21, 2011 11:32 AM CDT reply actions  

Even Ericsson played a whole heap better than he has in the regular season.

If I was an opposing team, I’d be very very afraid of our 5 on 5 defense. The weak links in the chain somehow became tempered… stronger.. and definitely held up better than I thought in this current series. I just hope we can exploit the shark’s weak points like we did Pheonix. Study and practice boys… you’re gonna need it.

Get your Al the Octopus for the playoffs

byjenniferleigh.etsy.com/

by Josh Howard on Apr 21, 2011 12:30 PM CDT up reply actions  

The Wings look like they did

during the first 20 games of the season when they were eating faces. Absolutely nobody else in the league could have flipped the switch the way Detroit did once the playoffs started. Although I don’t particularly want to see the Preds in the next round, I’m now a lot less concerned if that were to happen.

Think about how stupid the average person is, and then realize that half of them are even stupider! --George Carlin

by J_Stone on Apr 21, 2011 1:33 PM CDT up reply actions  

I'm the same way

The last team I want to see in the next round is Nashville. Rinne is the 2nd best goaltender left in the playoffs, IMO (behind Ryan Miller). Give me the Sharks so we can continue the Winged Wheel Rampage of Revenge Tour.

by Rob Rogacki on Apr 21, 2011 4:06 PM CDT up reply actions  

A curious thing occurred to me though

If we do get San Jose next, then we ought to be rooting for the Predators (I know, right? Bear with me). That way the travel will offset for everybody involved, taking that out of the equation. Then, assuming Detroit and Vancouver advance, it’s right down to who wants it more. If nothing else, it eliminates an excuse for every single remaining team.

Think about how stupid the average person is, and then realize that half of them are even stupider! --George Carlin

by J_Stone on Apr 21, 2011 6:11 PM CDT up reply actions  

That's another reason why I want to see Nashville in the next round

To sum up, why I want Nashville to beat Anaheim:
1. Tougher matchup for Vancouver
2. More travel for Vancouver
3. Reverse 1 and 2 if we play Nashville (i.e. LA pulls off the comeback)
4. Rinne can steal that series (the only reason I’m scared to play them)
5. I hate Anaheim
6. Winged Wheel Rampage of Revenge Tour™
7. [Insert warm, heartfelt story about franchise deserving a playoff series win after years of tough matchups and close calls]

by Rob Rogacki on Apr 21, 2011 10:52 PM CDT up reply actions  

I'm still not convinced

I’m still worried that San Jose won’t be a serious problem this year.

"I'll smile in June."

by Lords of Olympia on Apr 21, 2011 8:50 PM CDT reply actions  

It all depends on the PK

If everything else remains the same and the PK gets fixed, we’re damn near unbeatable.

by Rob Rogacki on Apr 21, 2011 10:53 PM CDT up reply actions  

Won’t or will?

"You can't stop him, you can only hope to contain Kent Huskins!" - Randy Hahn 2/13/11

by pooponastick on Apr 28, 2011 1:41 AM CDT up reply actions  

I don't like the idea of playing Nashville either...

…because I agree with all the reasons cited above. What bothers me now is Chicago has found new life, and I believe they have a very real chance of beating the odds and eliminating Vancouver. In all likelihood, that would mean San Jose faces Chicago in the semifinals, and the Wings would face the winner of the Anaheim — Nashville series. If this scenario plays out and we draw the Preds in the next round, the Wings are in for a VERY HARD road. Yes, the Wings can beat Nashville, but I bet that series would go to at least six games. After that, we would face San Jose or Chicago, NEITHER of which would I want to face for the Western Conference Finals. Our only hope there would be if San Jose advances but Chicago wears them down (more like BEATS them down) and exposes their weaknesses for the Wings to exploit. Heck, at this point I’d rather have the Wings facing Vancouver when the Canucks are bringing their A-game — at least that would be more evenly-matched and it would be more about playing disciplined, skilled hockey as opposed to throwing each other into the boards…

by MotownSarge on Apr 22, 2011 7:01 AM CDT reply actions  

You wouldn't want to face Nashville

after they’ve been bloodied and beaten by Anaheim for 7 games while we’re resting Zetterberg and Franzen for 5+ days? We’re not going to get Edmonton or Colorado in the next round. We have to play someone.

by Rob Rogacki on Apr 22, 2011 7:47 AM CDT up reply actions  

No question the next opponent the Red Wings face is going to be tough...

Don’t think for one second that I believe the Wings are going to handle their next opponent in a cake-walk fashion. Our choices for the semis are Anaheim, Nashville, and San Jose. While I wholeheartedly believe the Wings could beat any one of them, I believe the next round is going to be UGLY no matter which team we draw. I also agree that playing any team that has to go directly from the quarterfinals to the semifinals is going to be problematic after the Wings get rested. We’ve seen it too many times before — our beloved Red Wings sweep a series or finish in five, then they get some time off, but when the next round starts they look like an entirely different team (a good parallel would be the Vancouver Canucks in Games 1-3 against Chicago as compared to their performance in the last two games). Let’s not forget that the Coyotes fought and scrapped the entire way through four games, forcing the Wings to play better, smarter, and faster. Hopefully Coach Babcock will remind the Wings at least once every 10 minutes or so that it only gets tougher from here, and hopefully the team veterans will remember that exact lesson from past experience. We’re to the point now where even the smallest slip-up can cost a team a game, and the loss of one game can ultimately result in the loss of a series. The moment the Wings forget that, they may find themselves heading for the golf course earlier than expected.

by MotownSarge on Apr 22, 2011 8:03 AM CDT reply actions  

The reply button is your friend

You’re looking at this the wrong way. The whole argument about being rusty after a long break is good for the first game, tops. After that it’s back to business. Judging by the way we were able to close out Phoenix despite taking their best shot in Game 4, I think this team is mentally tough enough to get ready for the next round after a long break. The rest is a good thing for us, especially with the way the PK looked for the majority of the series. I feel confident about our chances going into any series, but especially if we get an opponent that just had to grind out a 7-game series against a physical team like Anaheim. The home ice doesn’t hurt either, despite our less-than-stellar record at the Joe this season.

by Rob Rogacki on Apr 22, 2011 8:40 AM CDT up reply actions  

I actually think San Jose is Detroit's biggest threat.

Vancouver is beatable, and Chicago is proving that. Get in Luongo’s head and the series is over. Keep the Sedins off the scoresheet and there is really no one else besides Kesler (who’s playoff stats are terrible) to carry the load. Also, Vancouver isn’t as big and tough and San Jose or Anaheim/Nashville. Also can’t count out the Hawks just yet after the two poundings they laid on the Canucks. I don’t think the Hawks will win the series, but they definitely have a good chance. The Hawks also would be a tough out, because once they get on a roll they are a tough team to stop.

Detroit REALLY needs to focus on the penalty kill. Sure a lot has been some bad luck around the net, but those chances are happening because they can’t clear the puck. Vancouver and San Jose’s PP’s are deadly and so is Anaheim’s.

Phoenix is one of the few playoff teams in the West without any real superstar forwards. You need them in the playoffs and that’s why the ‘Yotes were swept. Going forward, Anaheim and San Jose have two great top lines and the Canucks have the Sedins and Kesler. Vancouver would be the better draw because their offense isn’t as deep as San Jose or even Anaheim. With the Canucks… stop the Sedins and you stop their offense.

Focus on playing tight defense and they’ll have a great chance to go a long ways. The teams left in the West have the ability to light it up on the scoresheet, and Detroit’s GAA hasn’t been where it should be.

by dewman8810 on Apr 22, 2011 9:17 AM CDT reply actions  

Agree

I agree with dewman8810. San Jose is a tough bunch and match up very well with Detroit. All of SJ’s lines are lethal with the puck. Detroit’s game plan has to include playing defensive when 5 on 5 and frustrating SJ’s shot making by not allowing the pucks near Howard. The goals will come for the Wings during the PPs for Franzen, Datsyuk, etc – these guys are too good to not score. Protecting Howards from SJ’s shots is the key. I predict Datsyuk steals 5 times for goals and Franzen scores 5. Detroit wins in 5.

-anildolfan

by anil on Apr 27, 2011 5:20 PM CDT up reply actions  

handsomerob1, for some reason I can't get the reply button to work!

As I mentioned before, I’m not so sure a long rest is a good thing (unless your name happens to be Henrik Zetterberg and you’re trying to get healthy so you can play in the next round). I agree that the “rest lag” should last for only one game tops, but it seems to me that rest periods have resulted in disaster for the Wings more often than not over the last decade. I also believe that momentum can carry from one series to the next. If the team we face in the next round has to grind it out to seven games, they could very well come in against the Wings operating at the same level as they did in the last, if not higher. I hope you’re right and the time off will allow the Wings to work on the weaknesses identified in the first series, as well as mend some wounds. I’m just concerned that the time off will result in the Wings losing that mental edge as well.

by MotownSarge on Apr 22, 2011 9:31 AM CDT reply actions  

The Fix is in

Bettman says that it is San Jose’s year, and he’s read the act to his Refs.

by Jim P on May 6, 2011 12:43 AM CDT reply actions  

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