CSSI Analysis: Red Wings 1 - Islanders 5
[Editor's Note: I still haven't completed the writeup for Sunday's Chicago game, but I don't want to get any farther behind. The numbers in this post are missing that game from the adjustment standpoint. As soon as I have that post done and the numbers updated, the charts on the bottom of this post will automatically update themselves]
What a garbage game by the Red Wings. It's pretty hard to find positives in a game where the Wings didn't move their feet enough, didn't engage physically enough, didn't focus enough, and generally sucked. So... I won't try.
Darren Helm being interfered with before getting to a rebound on a shorthanded breakaway was the only missed call which made me exclaim something out loud. Other than that, the reffing wasn't a story here. Power plays were even at 3-3 in this one (although the Wings went 0-fer and still managed to spend almost a minute more on the ice than the 1-for-3 Isles.) Shots were 30-24 Isles because why the hell wouldn't they be?
CSSI Methodology Explanation here
Goalie Ratings
Ty Conklin let in five goals and his opponent let in one. I suppose that it might actually be possible for him to win the head-to-head in some stupid odd manner, but that's not what happened in this game. Nabby solidly outplayed Conklin with big saves. Conks will get a -1 in the head-to-head. Overall, I felt Conklin actually held off the the rout in the first period, as he made a couple of big stops to keep the Isles off the board early. There were saves I wish he made, but this game isn't close to being on him. I'm going to give Conks an even rating on the night.
Scoring and plus/minus analysis after the jump
The Goals
Penalty Adjustment: at 15:34 of the first period, the Wings get the first power play as Valtteri Filppula carries in on the wing. Milan Jurcina goes for a big hit on Flip at the half-boards, but Filppula is set and throws a check right back at him at the same time. This causes Jurcina to lose his balance and fall over. As this happens, he brings his stick up into Filppula's face. I like this play by Filppula and he'll get a plus for it.
1st Period 19:07 - Islanders Goal (PP): Matt Moulson (deflection) from PA Parenteau and Mark Streit
The Penalty - Brad Stuart (roughing, unsportsmanlike): Shortly after the expiration of the Jurcina penalty, Stuart goes to the box. Matt Moulson carries the puck out of the zone and Stu makes a play extending his arm at Moulson as if to establish contact and slow him down. Moulson moves and Stu's glove catches him in the jaw. It's a bit of unfortunate timing, but it's Stu's fault. It's also his fault that he gets an additional two for mouthing off to the ref. For each of these penalties, Stuart will get one minus.
The Isles score on the first half of the two minors with some very good puck movement against a very passive Wings PK unit. Detroit kills off the first 40 seconds before Streit gains the zone and gets the PP unit set up again. The Isles move the puck every direction around the outside of the box trying to find a weakness and nearly score when Matt Moulson hits John Tavares streaking in on the back door with a pass from behind the Wings net. After this miss, Tavares re-gathers behind the line and the Isles get set up once again. Tavares throws a hard cross-ice pass from the bottom of one circle to Parenteau standing on the other side. Parenteau has to take a second to gather the puck and loses the shooting angle. Instead of forcing something, Parenteau goes to Streit back at the point to change up the angle before receiving it back at the half-boards. From here, he goes to Moulson standing low on that side. Moulson steps out with the space he has and tries to throw it across the top of the crease to Tavares rushing the net. Instead of completing the pass, Moulson sees the puck deflect off Drew Miller's skate and in. It's tough to assign blame on such good puck movement, but Miller has to be aware that not only is Tavares' stick a danger, but also his own skates are. Miller will get a half-minus for the coverage that leads the puck into the net off of him.
2nd Period 07:31 - Islanders Goal: John Tavares (wrist shot) from Kyle Okposo
This play starts in the Isles' own zone with the puck on Johan Franzen's stick. Mule gets a puck in the corner under light pressure and decides to try and dump the puck around behind the net to Zetterberg on the far side. The dump isn't very strong and John Tavares picks it off the boards six feet away and feeds it out to Kyle Okposo standing in front to start up ice with it. Okposo meets Moulson at the top of the zone to join the middle lane while he brings the puck into the zone on the left wing. Travis Hamonic completes the front pressure as he enters just behind those two on the far side and forces Nick Lidstrom to worry about that far side coverage. While Franzen covers the middle lane that Okposo turns himself towards, the streaking forward drops the puck off for John Tavares to pick up coming in behind the play at the top of the circle. Ian White is low in the zone covering Moulson, Franzen has to cover the pass back to Okposo (but skates a bit too low doing so), Lidstrom is tied up with Hamonic, and Zetterberg is trailing the play to keep Tavares from going high across the zone to another trailer. This leaves Jiri Hudler three steps behind the man he's supposed to be covering and watching as Tavares lets his momentum carry him to the faceoff circle before he snaps a shot glove side on Conklin. The two men who were out of this play without an opportunity or an expectation to stop it (and will therefore have their minuses cleared) are Nicklas Lidstrom and Henrik Zetterberg. They're both covering their men and not involved anywhere in the turnover or failure to stop a pass/shot from getting by. Ian White has a bit of a decision point as Tavares carries in and I feel he could have left Moulson to square up on Tavares and force him to make a different play. However, that could have led to the exact same result. I'm going to halve White's minus. Hudler starts this play six feet in front of Tavares in the eventual race to the Wings' blue line and ends up losing that race by two strides. Tavares is fast, but Hudler needs to get back harder. This is going to be an extra minus for Jiri. Franzen makes the biggest collection of errors on this play though. The weak dump that Tavares intercepts in the offensive zone will earn Franzen a turnover minus and his positioning in being the second man covering the defenseman Hamonic low in the zone instead of skating over to Tavares to cover for Hudler will get Franzen another half-minus.
2nd Period 11:10 - Islanders Goal: Kyle Okposo (wrist shot) from John Tavares and Matt Moulson
The Wings get caught on a bad change and New York makes them pay. Cory Emmerton gets a pass behind the Isles' net and is pressured into going back up the boards. Emmerton's puck play is weak and Travis Hamonic gets to it before Johan Franzen can pinch in and prevent him from poking it around to the point where it takes a favorable bounce off Matt Moulson and out of the zone. Kyle Okposo is there at center ice very quickly to pressure Brad Stuart while Tomas Holmstrom and Cory Emmerton each go off for a change in the same area of the puck battle and Johan Franzen waits for Stuart to beat two Islanders for the puck at center. Unfortunately, Stuart can't do this and Okposo ties up Stuart to allow Tavares to pick it up while Moulson trails at center. The crossing play brings Tavares in on the edge of the circle and Okposo just trailing him. The tie-up also means that Brad Stuart is now behind both of them and off-balance. Kindl tries to stop the pass from Tavares to Okposo all alone in the slot, but it gets through. Conklin slides over in the butterfly, but Okposo nails the top corner before Conk can even square. First order of business here is to clear Hudler and Zetterberg of minuses. With the way this play develops, they have no chance of making a difference here. Emmerton will earn a minus despite not being on the ice, as his weak dump around the boards leads to the transition. Franzen will pick up an extra minus for the coverage that lets the puck by and for not backchecking harder to try and prevent the odd-man situation from happening. Brad Stuart does not have the kind of up-ice support he would need to make such an aggressive play on Okposo at center and as a result, he is beaten on this play. Stuart will get an extra minus. With the way this develops for Kindl, he will keep his minus for not stopping the cross-ice pass, but he'll receive no additional blame.
2nd Period 18:32 - Islanders Goal: Michael Grabner (wrist shot) from Matt Martin and Mark Streit
Late in the 2nd period, Michael Grabner gets in on the fun. Defensive play by both teams has Zetterberg poke the puck off Grabner's stick just outside the Islanders' zone and then go off on a change while Holmstrom controls the puck just inside the line. Streit cuts off his angle down the boards and Homer turns to protect the puck only to see more pressure from Grabner on the other side. Here, he tries to get it to Cory Emmerton streaking into the zone off the line change, but Emmerton is not skating hard enough into the zone and not paying enough attention as the puck wanders its way past him to be picked up by Martin exiting the zone. Martin takes about four steps before realizing that Grabner has a head of steam built up and is in great position to take a pass on the other side of center to split the D and head in on a breakaway. Grabner takes it to the hash marks and roofs it for the 4th of the game. Cleary's minus will be cleared on this play. Cleary is playing good offense when the puck is turned over. Kronwall will have his minus halved. He's got to make sure that Martin can't just keep it himself to walk around and get a break of his own, but it feels like after he realizes Ericsson is caught, he could jump into gear a bit quicker to see if he can make a play on Grabner. Holmstrom will have his minus cleared. The puck is turned over off his stick, but his options get completely taken away and he fights to create a good one. It's not Homer's fault that Emmerton isn't ready to receive a pass he should be. Speaking of which, Emmerton will get an extra minus for what creates the turnover here. He has to be paying attention and hustling to get this pass. Finally, Jonathan Ericsson will get an extra minus for stepping too far up on the assumed zone entry and letting a guy get behind him for a goal.
3rd Period 02:36 - Detroit Goal: Justin Abdelkader (tip-in) from Jakub Kindl and Tomas Holmstrom
Early in the third, the Wings break the shutout with some good play in the offensive zone. Abdelkader and Kindl combine for a defensive zone faceoff win that turns into forechecking zone time on a dump-in by Holmstrom. Homer steps around Eaton and bangs hard into Staios to help get the puck back. This action is completed by Homer and Drew Miller in the corner. Homer jams it to Kindl at the point and everybody gets to net-front position as Kindl steps to get into a lane around Niederreiter at the point to throw a wrister into traffic. The puck deflects off the stick of Abdelkader at the hash marks as he's tied up by Staios. From there, the puck goes through a Tomas Holmstrom screen and finds its way into the net through Nabokov. This is a good hustle play by Homer on retrieval and also a good screen job. Homer will get a bonus plus for his forechecking work and a screener's assist for forcing Nabby to guess on the shot. Miller has a little to do with this play in helping to free it up to get it to the point for Kindl. Miller will get a half-assist (non-touch). Abby's clean faceoff win to start the rush will get him a half-plus.
Penalty Adjustment: 7:35 into the third, Todd Bertuzzi loses the puck at center to be picked up by Kyle Okposo stepping back into the Detroit zone. Okposo dekes Kronwall into a standing shot-block and then threatens to walk around him. Kronner loses his balance and as a last-ditch efford hooks Okposo to prevent a scoring chance. Kronner will get a minus for this, but Bert will also get a half-minus for where he turns the puck over.
3rd Period 13:57 - Islanders Goal: Matt Moulson (tip-in) from Mark Streit and John Tavares
Later in the third, the Isles prove they're not screwing around and put in one more for good measure. The Isles control off a faceoff and get good zone time with a goal almost 30 seconds later in the Detroit end. Helm gets a chance to clear as he comes out of his own corner, but pressure by Okposo forces him to try a fancy bounce-pass off the boards which misses Emmerton and instead rolls to Moulson for a flubbed shot attempt at the top of the Circle. Tavares picks it up and circles back around to the front of the net. Here, he finds everybody watching and is able to throw a seeing-eye pass to the opposite point to an uncovered Mark Streit. The Isle's D-man tees it up and it deflects off Moulson past Conklin for the game's final goal.Helm's turnover will lead to an extra minus for the speedster. Pretty much everybody else fails to prevent this play from developing, so no more extra minuses on this one.
Penalty Non-Adjustments
1st Period 19:49 - Andrew MacDonald (roughing): MacDonald is carrying the puck behind the Detroit goal and apparently gets an elbow or something up on Ericsson as they circle. I'd have to see a reverse angle to see if this is even worth a penalty, but I definitely don't think Ericsson drew it by any means.
3rd Period 05:08 - Travis Hamonic (high sticking): Guys' not paying attention to his stick in the offensive zone. No adjustment.
Bonus Ratings
+1 to Jakub Kindl and Jonathan Ericsson: Riggy had the mistake that earned him an extra minus on the goal and was punished for it as he should have been. Without that, I felt these two had a very solid game. They were calm and generally better-positioned than their higher-line counterparts.
-1 to Valtteri Filppula: The adjusted penalty plus doesn't make up for how many wide open goals he missed (2). It's not acceptable for a guy to make as many offensive zone mistakes as he made and I feel he hurt the team with them.
Honorable Mentions:
I thought Homer and Helm were moving their feet, but could have skated a bit harder. I hope the Wings can recover from this in time for Thursday.
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pathetic
especially with St Louis and Chicago handling their gimme points. Detroit lacks a Dallas Drake type player right now. I don’t know where you find one but they clearly lack an all-heart kind of guy.
DETROIT RED WINGS – "war were declared"
Twitter - @TheIngles22
Hmm..
I’d say Holmstrom is Detroit’s Dallas Drake type player right now.
Or… do you mean in some other manner I’m not considering?
by Big Z in Orlando on Jan 12, 2012 5:03 PM CST up reply actions
I stoped
watching after it went 4-0 due to the factI havent seen us come back from 4, however the four goals I did watch you cant really blame conk. Talk about being hung out to dry. This team goes from the detroit red wings at home to jerry’s kids on the road, I just dont get it.
Does anyone else notice that Zetterberg is on pace for 62 points
62!!!! What the hell happened to him? If thats what happens then Detroit definitely needs another top 6 forward in addition to my last post about some sort of Dallas Drake type player.
DETROIT RED WINGS – "war were declared"
Twitter - @TheIngles22
I don't want to bash Hank too much though
Because he is probably the wings best player in the playoffs. Unless Datsyuk beats the shit out of everyone like he did last year.
DETROIT RED WINGS – "war were declared"
Twitter - @TheIngles22
I wasnt too worried about it when they were up by a few goals. I have seen us come back and we are strong enough to do so. But damn… That was bad. What happened?
Last game on a poorly planned road trip. This game had TRAP in big red letters stamped on the tickets.
I mean seriously, go to google maps and trace a line from Detroit to Dallas to Toronto to Chicago to Long Island, who put this together? And remember they flew over Grand Rapids on the way to Long Island so Conner could be air dropped back in.
Dancing Datsyuk Decidedly Dazzles Dainty Defensemen
This game had TRAP in big red letters stamped on the tickets.
Boom. The Canucks did the exact same thing earlier this week. They went on the road against a big rival and scored an emotional win, then came out flat against an Eastern opponent that was inferior to them and lost.
by Amerinadian on Jan 11, 2012 10:23 AM CST up reply actions
Bingo Bango Bongo… exactly!
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by Josh Howard on Jan 11, 2012 10:40 AM CST up reply actions
I don’t know it seems a little bit too easy on Hudler. From what I’ve seen, he has been either directly or indirectly involved with almost half of all the goals against the Wings since the Dallas game.
The guy has put up points this year for sure (Then again, it helps to be on a line with Zetterberg and Filppula.) But his ability to shoot does not make up for his small stature, slow speed, timidness with the puck, and general bad defensive play in my opinion. As far as forwards go, he is the Wings biggest liability.
I think Hudler has been on fire with the puck this year. He battles really hard on the boards and wants the puck more and more. I think the thing Hudler is lacking is more of a shoot first mentality. He is always trying to set up goals for Filppula and Zetterberg. He worked hard over the offseason to get stronger and faster, and I think it has really paid off.
I’ll concede the general bad defensive play, but when he is on the line with Z and Filp he can afford to not back check as hard.
The biggest Wings liability on forward according to CSSI +/- stats is Emmerton. Hudler has played way better this year.
I'm a Homer
by holmstrom96 on Jan 11, 2012 11:53 AM CST up reply actions
I don't agree with a lot of this
I’m definitely punishing Hudler when he’s not backchecking enough or when he turns the puck over, as is evidenced by the extra punishment he got in this post.
I haven’t been giving him additional minuses because he simply hasn’t deserved them. Hudler is going to the areas of the ice in the offensive zone where he should be going (most noticeably, he’s the net-front guy on the line with Zetterberg and Filppula and actually does a pretty good job of that… like in the third goal of the Toronto game where he scored to tie it).
What is frustrating is that he still does not shoot the puck as often as I would like, but his points pace does not lie in that he is greatly improved with how well he’s playing. He’s earned the minutes he’s getting. He’s actually good at winning board battles too, but you have to watch closely to see those happen.
As for defensive play? He’s a lot more engaged in the defensive zone than he was last year. He doesn’t backcheck well on the rush because he’s not fast, but he’s still pretty good about covering the points (which is the winger’s job) and assisting around the faceoff circles when necessary.
I think if I were to take all the stats into consideration as far as what a forward’s job is and how well he’s doing it, I would say that Todd Bertuzzi has been a bigger liability than Hudler. He takes more bad penalties and is producing far fewer points than Hudler so far.
by J.J. from Kansas on Jan 11, 2012 12:03 PM CST up reply actions
I definitely agree that he’s been much better than last year but he was terrible last year. And so that’s only better than terrible. I just think that the Z, Fil, Hulder line has way more minuses than it should and it’s mostly due to him usually coasting behind the play. I believe just last night I saw at least 3, possibily 4 odd man rushes that were 3-on-2 or 4-on-3 or 2 all because he forechecked too deep and couldn’t get back. And on two of the goals he was coasting in no-man’s land behind the Islanders’ rush.
I also agree that the willingness is there but he is really easy for opponents to knock off the puck and has been very hesitant at times, usually like you said not shooting when he shoot, and then turns it over. But I just think as good as he has been points-wise, he has been equally bad, if not more so defensively. Although, I’ll definitely concede that Bertuzzi not putting up the numbers and taking bad penalties puts him right up there. But at least he is strong on the puck and good in the corners without as many turnovers.
On a winger's responsibility and Babcock's offensive system
It’s hard for me to defend the “doesn’t backcheck enough” charge when there was a goal last night that can be mostly attributed to exactly the problem you described, but there is a reason Hudler is usually behind the play and it’s not because the guy has a weird skating style which slows him down.
The primary thing to understand is what exactly is Hudler’s offensive role on that line; it’s the same as Tomas Holmstrom’s, Danny Cleary’s and Todd Bertuzzi’s role. Each of those four players is currently the net-front mucking winger. While offensive roles change dynamically in the zone, most of the time, it’s these guys’ job to screen goalies, muck for pucks, create lanes for their teammates by setting picks, and to find quiet areas in which to materialize and collect passes for scoring opportunities. They are for the most part supposed to be offensive support for the playmaker and sniper on their lines. As a result, you will almost never see Holmstrom, Bertuzzi, Cleary, or Hudler as the primary guy behind the play on a 3-on-2 rush. If you’re seeing that manpower disadvantage, then 9 times out of ten you’re seeing a mistake made by the center or the hybrid winger (Franzen, Filppula, Abdelkader and Miller). These hybrid Wingers are responsible for more of the playmaking, puck-handling, cycling, and covering for defensemen taking runs in the zone. One of these guys or the center is generally supposed to be higher than the potential third man out of the offensive zone in transition.
The thing is that transition is a tough thing. You’ll often see a team lose the puck high in their own zone as they take it away from the offensive team. Sometimes when that happens, it’s incredibly nice to have a guy still low in the zone to turn the puck back in and reset the play. That fifth guy back (which is really Hudler’s job) should just about never find himself the absolute last man coming back into his own defensive zone, but he should also just about never be #3 coming back either and should rarely be #4 even.
The Tavares goal was absolutely a case where Hudler did not get back when he should have and did not cover like he should have. In that case, Franzen was the hybrid winger and Zetterberg the defensive center (who just so happen to have switched defensive roles out of necessity). Franzen was the first man back and covered the middle of the ice (which is the center’s job) while Zetterberg stayed high on his side of the ice to cover for a late man coming in behind the play (if Z weren’t there, it would have given an completely open lane to the last Islanders player back to walk all the way to the net… also Z had an expectation that he wouldn’t have to cross the ice to pick up Tavares). Tavares joined that play as the late man in on the strong side of the ice. Hudler needed to have been in front of or at the very least on to the side of Tavares to prevent him from picking up the puck cleanly and getting the shot off. However, despite that failure, it’s generally not Hudler’s job to prevent odd-man rushes like that… except it’s his job to not create them with horrible passes and turnovers, something he doesn’t do often.
I don’t have my notes from the game with me, but the idea that Hudler being too deep in the zone as being the cause of odd-man rushes simply isn’t the case. Even the odd-man that developed which was his fault didn’t develop because of his goof-up, but because Franzen turned the puck over weakly.
by J.J. from Kansas on Jan 11, 2012 1:17 PM CST up reply actions 2 recs
awesome post
Nice explanation of this aspect of wings system.
Just fantastic.
Interesting
but Miller has to be aware that not only is Tavares’ stick a danger, but also his own skates are.
I’m no hockey smart-guy or nothin’, but I’d be willing to be tthat Drew has been told a few times to put himself between the guy with the puck and the guy he’s supposed to be covering, even (maybe even ESPECIALLY) when the guy he’s covering is moving into the crease.
It was frustrating to see the puck go off his skate, but if he wasn’t there, would the situation really have been better?
I feel the minus on Drew here might be a bit harsh.
by Big Z in Orlando on Jan 12, 2012 5:06 PM CST reply actions
Possible
But I generally give out minuses on the mantra of “if you can’t deflect it out of harm’s way, then at least don’t deflect it past your own goalie.”
Sure, Miller is doing good work eliminating Tavares’ stick, but he can still probably do that while running that skate blade perpendicular to the goal line to prevent that deflection.
by J.J. from Kansas on Jan 12, 2012 5:40 PM CST up reply actions

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