Here is a look, as of March 15th, at the Corsi based statistics of the Red Wings forwards at even strength. While we've discussed quite a bit on here that the Wings are a strong 5-on-5 team, let's take a look at some numbers that may tell us some more than just the eyeball test about who is and is not contributing.
If you're unfamiliar with what the "advanced stats" mean, I would suggest this link as the author provides the formulas, explanations, and even nifty little charts to follow along. I'll give some brief breakdowns of what each means. Keep in mind that any one of these numbers by themselves is not representative of the whole. Looking at them as a group really gives light to what is happening on the ice.
But first: why should you care about these stats? The basics of Corsi and its sister stats is to show who is controlling play on the ice. The idea is that if you are taking more shots than the opponent is, then you're winning puck possession and therefore more likely to score and win.
All of these numbers are scaled to what the player's average would be based on play at even strength for 60 minutes. They can also all be found at the wonderful http://www.behindthenet.ca
Corsi – the number of shots for that scored, saved, missed, and blocked vs. the shots against that scored, saved, missed, and blocked while the player was on the ice. Positive numbers are good.
Corsi Relative – how that player's Corsi compares to his team's Corsi when he is not on the ice. Again, high numbers = good.
Corsi Quality of Competition (Corsi QoC) – the weighted average of that player's opponents' Corsi. Higher numbers means better quality opponents in terms of Corsi.
Corsi Relative Quality of Competition (Corsi Rel QoC) – the weighted average of the player's opponents' Relative Corsi numbers. Higher numbers means better quality opponents in terms of Corsi, .75 and higher is top notch competition.
On-Ice SH%/SV% - the team's shooting or save percentage when the player is on the ice. These are fun stats but do not read too much into them as the numbers generally fall in line with average over time. Only the truly awful and truly great players provide major changes to them over a long period of time. In the short term, though, they can point out hot and cold streaks.
For the purposes of sanity, I sorted by a minimum of 5 games played. Sorry Mursak, Helm, and Nyquist, your numbers don't make any sense because you've played a combined 3 shifts this season.
|NAME||GP||TOI/60||Corsi Rel QoC||Corsi QoC||Corsi Relative||Corsi On||On-Ice Sh%||On-Ice SV%|
The first thing that stands out is that Andersson and Tatar absolutely dominated play against very weak competition. So much so that their gigantic Corsi numbers actually throw the Corsi Relative off for a few other players, especially further down the list. Patrick Eaves is also a benefactor of this line as he is much higher up the list than he probably would normally be on Emmerton's wing. That whole line was putting pucks on and in the net at an incredible rate with limited ice time.
Todd Bertuzzi is also standing out for a big reason. While only playing 7 games leads to sample size issues, he was keeping the flow of play in the right direction for the Wings and against tough opponents. Filppula is not far behind and has been exceptional at keeping the opposing goalie peppered with pucks.
And of course Pavel Datsyuk is up there. He is what drives this team and that's no surprise. Facing the toughest players every night he puts up excellent possession numbers, even if they are down from earlier in the year, which leads us to...
The current whipping boys: Cleary and Abdelkader. While their numbers are certainly ok, the relative Corsi shows that they aren't holding their weight quite as well as their Russian center. The more interesting problem is that though they have positive Corsi, the team has a shooting percentage about half of what you would like to see when they are on the ice in a top 2 line role.
Brunner and Zetterberg carried the offense pretty heavily early on but have little to show with these stats overall. They're slightly above the competition, but slightly below average on the team while facing lesser players than Datsyuk. The percentages are in a nice place, but they need to do better in controlling the play.
THE OH GOD NO'S
Here is a funny collection. Franzen is doing absolutely horrifically in these numbers. While facing among the strongest competition, he is not helping the Wings out when compared to the other members of the top 2 lines.
The 22-25-20 line is getting completely crushed in possession, against mediocre to poor players, but the team save percentage is staggeringly high when they're on the ice. Either they are getting very lucky or they're forcing very low percentage plays. Either way, those numbers need to improve. Playing defensively is fine when appropriate, but at the cost of all offense is a bad thing.
WHAT HAVE WE LEARNED
When looking at this the first time, I was surprised at just how much Andersson and Tatar were obliterating the opposition and didn't think that Franzen, Zetterberg, or Brunner would be so poor. Emmerton's line was also a bit of a disappointment but I don't expect much from them individually or as a group. Bertuzzi only had a handful of minutes comparatively, but the team was rocking with him on the ice.