FanPost

Playoff Chances

Last year around this time I created a spreadsheet to determine how many more games the Wings would win. It was fairly accurate as it predicted that after January 30th the Wings would win 7 road games and 11 home games while in reality, the Wings won 5 road games and 11 home games.

Since then I have changed a few things, the first being how a team’s home and road winning percentage are calculated and the second was that I included how a team historically has fared against an opponent.

The home winning percentages are now calculated as a trend of home winning percentages over the last 6 seasons. Once a team has played half of their home games there is a weighting mechanism that increases the effect of the current seasons home winning percentage until it is double that of the trend. The same equation is used to calculate home points percentage, road winning percentage, and road points percentage.

Once each team’s home winning percentage, home point percentage, road winning percentage, and road point percentage the outcome of each game is calculated as shown below:

HW% =

((LHW%)+(LSDHW%)+(1-LSDRW%)+(HW%)+(1-RW%)+(HSDW%)+(1-RSDW%)+(HVSW%))

8

RW% =

((1-LHW%)+(1-LSDHW%)+(LSDRW%)+(1-HW%)+(RW%)+(1-HSDW%)+(RSDW%)+(1-HVSW%))

8

HPTS%=

((LHPTS%)+(LSDHPTS%)+(HPTS%)+(HSDPTS%)+(HVSPTS%))

5

RPTS%

((LRPTS%)+(LSDRPTS%)+(RPTS%)+(RSDPTS%)+(RVSPTS%))

5

I then multiplied these percentages by a random number generator that picks numbers between 0 and 12, yielding scores between 0 and 8. Then each of these percentages gets recalculated after each day’s worth of games.

After running this 10,000 times, thank you excel macros, the following was the percentages that each team would finish in each position.

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Pittsburgh 78.60% 20.10% 1.10% 0.20% 0.10% 1.2
Boston 20.70% 66.10% 9.20% 2.50% 0.80% 0.40% 0.10% 0.10% 0.10% 0.00% 1.9
Montreal 0.20% 5.00% 26.80% 21.40% 15.60% 10.20% 7.40% 5.30% 3.80% 2.40% 1.40% 0.50% 0.10% 4.8
Tampa Bay 0.40% 5.90% 30.70% 21.40% 14.00% 9.60% 6.40% 4.90% 3.00% 1.90% 1.30% 0.50% 0.10% 0.00% 4.8
Detroit 0.00% 0.90% 7.10% 11.20% 12.70% 12.30% 12.00% 11.40% 10.10% 8.60% 7.00% 5.00% 1.50% 0.10% 7
Philadelphia 0.00% 0.80% 7.70% 11.60% 13.80% 13.60% 13.10% 10.90% 9.70% 7.60% 6.10% 4.00% 1.10% 0.10% 7
NY Rangers 0.00% 0.50% 7.20% 11.00% 12.70% 13.50% 12.40% 10.80% 10.10% 8.50% 7.20% 4.80% 1.30% 0.00% 7.1
Toronto 0.00% 0.40% 4.30% 7.60% 10.10% 11.60% 12.60% 12.40% 11.60% 11.10% 9.50% 7.20% 1.70% 0.10% 7.7
Columbus 0.30% 2.70% 5.40% 7.40% 9.40% 10.40% 11.90% 13.10% 12.60% 12.00% 10.00% 4.50% 0.40% 0.10% 8.6
Washington 0.10% 1.20% 2.80% 4.80% 7.20% 9.20% 11.20% 12.80% 14.40% 15.30% 14.90% 5.40% 0.70% 0.10% 9
New Jersey 0.10% 1.00% 2.30% 3.80% 5.90% 8.10% 10.30% 11.80% 14.30% 16.00% 17.20% 8.10% 0.90% 0.20% 9.6
Ottawa 0.00% 1.10% 2.60% 4.00% 6.00% 7.50% 9.40% 11.90% 14.20% 15.90% 18.10% 8.10% 1.10% 0.20% 0.00% 9.6
Carolina 0.00% 0.00% 0.20% 0.50% 0.80% 1.50% 2.20% 4.30% 7.70% 15.10% 49.20% 14.40% 4.00% 0.10% 12.4
Florida 0.00% 0.00% 0.10% 0.30% 1.40% 9.70% 40.00% 43.00% 5.50% 14.4
NY Islanders 0.10% 0.40% 1.20% 9.10% 40.30% 43.00% 6.00% 14.4
Buffalo 0.00% 0.10% 2.00% 9.50% 88.40% 15.8

Then looking specifically at the results from the Wings schedule this is what was returned:

Points W L OT % in 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 % total
107 47 22 13 100% 1 2 0%
106 47 23 12 100% 1 3 1 0%
46 22 14 1
105 46 23 13 100% 7 1 0%
45 22 15 1
104 46 24 12 100% 4 8 0%
45 23 14 3 6
103 45 24 13 100% 11 15 4 0%
44 23 15 2 4
102 45 25 12 100% 1 11 31 3 1%
44 24 14 5 19 4
43 23 16 2
101 44 25 13 100% 12 62 13 3 1%
43 24 15 3 16 4
42 23 17 1 1
100 44 26 12 100% 12 51 30 4 2%
43 25 14 4 52 19 1
42 24 16 6 1
99 43 26 13 100% 6 110 72 12 2 2%
42 25 15 1 16 16 5 1
41 24 17 2
98 43 27 12 100% 1 53 102 24 2 2 3%
42 26 14 2 56 67 18 4 1
41 25 16 5 9 2
97 42 27 13 100% 2 81 171 96 29 3 5%
41 26 15 17 44 27 7 2
40 25 17 2
96 42 28 12 100% 32 122 119 42 4 6%
41 27 14 1 27 98 103 55 7
40 26 16 1 16 10 6 3
39 25 18 1
95 41 28 13 100% 15 125 182 108 34 4 6%
40 27 15 6 33 63 28 10 1
39 26 17 1 4 2 2
38 25 19 1
94 41 29 12 100% 7 47 155 121 37 7 2 8%
40 28 14 7 46 133 127 57 9 2
39 27 16 2 14 16 8 2
38 26 18 1 1
93 40 29 13 99% 35 120 217 171 57 6 1 8%
39 28 15 1 8 41 55 57 21 3 1
38 27 17 3 5 5 4
37 26 19 1
92 40 30 12 92% 8 42 106 147 101 25 1 9%
39 29 14 6 40 106 124 93 39 6
38 28 16 2 6 14 15 22 2 1
91 39 30 13 81% 4 18 90 193 197 89 26 1 8%
38 29 15 2 10 24 46 52 30 4 2
37 28 17 1 9 2 4
90 39 31 12 61% 6 26 80 135 99 45 9 9%
38 30 14 5 19 87 133 109 41 8
37 29 16 1 13 22 17 8 1
36 28 18 1 1 1
89 38 31 13 34% 9 51 115 159 122 36 3 7%
37 30 15 3 8 34 57 30 10 3
36 29 17 1 5 2 2
88 38 32 12 17% 8 46 103 87 50 8 6%
37 31 14 1 8 42 82 111 54 7
36 30 16 2 2 9 12 4 4
35 29 18 1 1
87 37 32 13 7% 1 5 25 81 141 101 39 1 5%
36 31 15 1 4 22 31 37 7
35 30 17 1 3 1 1
86 37 33 12 3% 7 24 46 70 47 5 4%
36 32 14 2 17 43 65 33 2
35 31 16 2 1 7 11 9 1
85 36 33 13 0% 11 46 72 79 8 3%
35 32 15 1 13 29 22 2
34 31 17 4 2
33 30 19 1
84 36 34 12 0% 5 11 32 43 12 2%
35 33 14 2 7 41 42 8
34 32 16 1 3 7 1
33 31 18 1
83 35 34 13 0% 1 3 25 53 12 1%
34 33 15 9 11 5
33 32 17 3 1
82 35 35 12 0% 1 5 24 11 1%
34 34 14 12 27 13
33 33 16 1 2 2 1
32 32 18 1
81 34 35 13 0% 1 20 16 3 0%
33 34 15 2 1 5
80 34 36 12 0% 1 4 10 1 0%
33 35 14 1 2 9 1
32 34 16 2
79 33 36 13 0% 1 1 10 0%
32 35 15 2
78 33 37 12 0% 2 5 1 0%
32 36 14 3
77 32 37 13 0% 1 4 0%
76 31 37 14 0% 1 0%
75 31 38 13 0% 1 0%

Now the interesting thing is that what I came up with conflicts with what they get here, from a standpoint of percentage in the playoffs, I get that we have a 54% chance while they got a 39% chance. While I don’t run anywhere near as many iterations I have also removed the highly improbable ones, where the team loses out or wins out (not gonna happen with as many games as we have left, this isn’t football). The other interesting thing is that we ended up with approximately the same range of points that we were most likely to end with, 88-92.

What do you think? And is there anything else that you would like to see?

***Numbers Updated to Include Results of Games Through Monday (3/3) Night***

This is a fanpost written by a WIIM community member. The views and opinions expressed here are that member's and do not necessarily reflect the views of the site itself.

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