Well, it’s over.
The hellish, seemingly eternal free-fall of a season is gone. Now it’s time to have a look at something we’ve never had to look at here at WIIM: the NHL Draft Lottery. The Red Wings finished with the sixth-worst record in the league, which slates them for a guaranteed top-10 pick. Here is a full breakdown of Detroit’s draft lottery odds:
1st overall: 6.7%
2nd overall: 7.0%
3rd overall: 7.2%
7th overall: 23.4%
8th overall: 39.7%
9th overall: 14.8%
10th overall: 1.2%
Here’s how it works
The 1st, 2nd, and 3rd overall picks are awarded by drawing of ping pong balls, the remaining teams, sorted by points, will fill out picks 4-15. Ties are broken by ROW, then head-to-head if still tied. The Vegas Knights will get identical odds as Arizona to land in the top-three. To sum up my feelings for you — it’s hard to expect a top-five pick. The odds are not in the Red Wings’ favor. All you can do is hope, and folks, hope is not a strategy.
So, I hate to burst your bubble, but barring a miracle, Nolan Patrick, Nico Hischier, or Gabriel Vilardi won’t be shaking hands with Red Wings brass and putting on the Winged Wheel at the United Center come June 23rd.
What to expect
I wholeheartedly expect the Red Wings to land smack-dab at 7th or 8th overall, where their odds are highest. Most draft simulating models have them falling there a majority of the time.
Early names to read up on are Martin Necas, Cale Makar, Elias Pettersson, Cody Glass, Juuso Välimäki, and yes, even Timothy Liljegren has the possibility of sliding down.
As always, I’ll be profiling these great young players leading up to the draft, so look forward to that.
And no, they’re not going to trade up in the 1st round.