FanPost

2020 Consolidated Draft Rankings: The Rankings (1/3)

Consolidated Draft Rankings
Based on 14 Different Official Services

pubchart.0.png

Hey all,

I’m going to share with you a project I’ve been working on over the season in regards to the upcoming NHL Draft. Some of you may remember MidlandWingsFan74’s 2019 Draft Consensus Draft Rankings that was posted last year. I was actually working on something similar at the time but never got around to expanding upon it, so I’ve adapted it to 2020.

Here’s what I’ve done: I have taken the rankings from 14 different official services (some of which are behind a paywall, so I can’t show the rankings themselves). I’ve then used these numbers to find the average ranking for each player, the standard deviation of those rankings (how volatile they are) and the expected range they are expected to be drafted in (Average ±Standard Deviation).

Services

Here are the rankings that I used for this list:

Author Publisher Players Date
Bob McKenzie TSN 62 01/30
Craig Button TSN 93 01/15
Sam Cosentino Sportsnet 31 03/04
Mike Morreale NHL.com 31 03/20
Corey Pronman The Athletic* 23 01/29
Scott Wheeler The Athletic* 62 02/19
Larry Fisher The Hockey Writers 217 02/01
Steve Kournianos The Draft Analyst 300 01/13
Ryan Kennedy The Hockey News 31 01/09
Group Ranking Hockeyprospect.com 31 01/16
Group Ranking Future Considerations 100 03/01
Group Ranking ISS Hockey 31 03/04
Group Ranking McKeens 31 -
Group Ranking Eliteprospects.com* 62 02/01

Disclaimers

These numbers should tell us a lot about what public consensus is on how good these players are and where they are expected to go. There are some obvious disclaimers I need to make, however:

  1. These are based on 14 rankings from various media services. NHL scouting departments don’t particularly care about these rankings (Corey Pronman has a good article on this that just came off of a paywall). Teams can and will pick players outside of standard deviation, just ask Moritz Seider.
  2. 7/14 services didn’t rank beyond the top 31. This means that players around that area and further back aren’t ranked by all or even most services. With a lower sample of rankings this means that these rankings are significantly less reliable the further back you go.
  3. If a player was not ranked by a service I did not try to assume where they were ranked. This means that, especially in the mid-late 1st round, players who are ranked by less services have their averages inflated. For example: Jacob Perreault was ranked at an average of 26.38 by 13/14 services. One service did not have him in the top 31, however. If that service did have him ranked his average would drop to at least 26.79 by all 14 services. So while his average is guaranteed to be lower than listed, I did not assume his ranking. This becomes more pronounced the less services rank an otherwise highly ranked player.
  4. These are obviously not my opinions/evaluation of these players. In many cases my own rankings vary extremely differently from these rankings. I will then give my own opinions in the latter posts, however. I just wanted to make sure then nobody confuses the two.
  5. As you could likely see in the table before, not all of these rankings are up to date. Given the sudden unexpected end to the season and my subsequent boredom I decided to go ahead with this anyways. I will try to make sure to update this after each of the services updates to their year-end rankings.

The Rankings

Here’s a list of every player that has an average ranking better than 100 (104 total players). I have eliminated players only ranked by one service. I also have a full version of the 332 players I have ranked on a google doc here.

# Player Pos Team League Rank SD High Low
1 Alexis Lafreniere F RIM QMJHL 1.0 0.0 1 1
2 Quinton Byfield F SBY OHL 2.4 0.8 2 4
3 Tim Stutzle F MANN DEL 3.7 1.8 2 8
4 Lucas Raymond F FRO SHL 5.5 2.4 2 9
5 Jamie Drysdale D ER OHL 5.6 1.7 3 8
6 Marco Rossi F OTT OHL 6.5 1.8 4 10
7 Alexander Holtz F DIF SHL 6.6 2.3 3 11
8 Cole Perfetti F SAG OHL 6.7 1.8 4 9
9 Yaroslav Askarov G SKA VHL 9.5 2.4 5 13
10 Anton Lundell F HIFK Liiga 9.9 3.4 5 16
11 Connor Zary F KAM WHL 14.6 4.1 9 25
12 Dylan Holloway F WIS NCAA (B10) 15.0 3.2 10 20
13 Dawson Mercer F DRU/CHI QMJHL 15.4 6.7 11 36
14 Jake Sanderson D USA USHL 18.2 9.4 7 33
15 Jack Quinn F OTT OHL 18.8 7.3 10 35
16 Rodion Amirov F TUFA MHL 18.9 4.9 9 26
17 Noel Gunler F LHF SHL 19.4 9.0 10 45
18 Mavrik Bourque F SHA QMJHL 21.0 6.4 11 29
19 Kaiden Guhle D PA WHL 21.7 9.4 11 42
20 Jeremie Poirier D SNB QMJHL 21.7 4.0 14 26
21 Hendrix Lapierre F CHI QMJHL 22.1 9.0 9 41
22 Braden Schneider D BDN WHL 22.9 8.7 13 38
23 Seth Jarvis F POR WHL 25.3 9.0 13 46
24 Jacob Perreault F SAR OHL 26.4 9.1 12 50
25 Justin Barron D HAL QMJHL 26.8 11.9 12 51
26 William Wallinder D MODO Superelit 27.0 13.0 12 49
27 Jan Mysak F HAM OHL 27.8 14.8 13 61
28 John-Jason Peterka F MÜN DEL 28.9 12.0 14 49
29 Lukas Cormier D CHA QMJHL 30.0 10.7 20 45
30 Emil Andrae D HV71 Superelit 31.0 13.3 15 58
31 Thomas Bordeleau F USA USHL 31.1 8.0 18 44
32 Shakir Mukhamadullin D TUFA MHL 32.5 14.5 15 57
33 Zion Nybeck F HV71 Superelit 33.9 13.5 14 55
34 Vasili Ponomaryov F SHA QMJHL 34.4 12.5 19 58
35 Brendan Brisson F CHI USHL 34.6 18.6 17 79
36 Jean-Luc Foudy F WSR OHL 34.6 12.3 15 54
37 Kasper Simontaival F TAP Finland U20 34.8 9.6 24 45
38 Lukas Reichel F BER DEL 35.4 8.9 20 48
39 Ryan O'Rourke D SOO OHL 37.2 19.6 16 84
40 Ty Smilanic F USA USHL 37.3 13.3 19 59
41 Roni Hirvonen F ASS Liiga 37.6 14.7 21 59
42 Sean Farrell F CHI USHL 37.9 9.6 28 52
43 Jake Neighbours F EDM WHL 38.8 12.0 26 61
44 Topi Niemela D KAR Liiga 43.0 9.7 34 60
45 Ridly Greig F BDN WHL 44.0 15.5 25 61
46 Helge Grans D MIF Superelit 44.3 22.3 21 88
47 Daniil Gushchin F MUS USHL 44.6 8.4 30 54
48 Justin Sourdif F VAN WHL 45.0 16.1 21 68
49 Tyson Foerster F BAR OHL 45.7 13.4 25 63
50 Eemil Viro D TPS Finland U20 46.8 20.0 23 72
51 Ozzy Wiesblatt F PA WHL 47.3 11.5 30 58
52 Nico Daws G GUE OHL 47.5 17.7 35 60
53 Sam Colangelo F CHI USHL 47.6 19.2 27 72
54 Tyler Kleven D USA USHL 49.0 21.5 21 77
55 Antonio Stranges F LDN OHL 49.6 20.8 25 86
56 Connor McClennon F WPG WHL 50.7 19.1 23 78
57 Alexander Pashin F TUFA MHL 50.8 26.3 19 77
58 Jaromir Pytlik F SOO OHL 51.0 12.8 29 71
59 Carter Savoie F SHER AJHL 51.8 33.7 20 114
60 Marat Khusnutdinov F SKA-SP MHL 54.9 19.9 17 76
61 Joni Jurmo D JOK Finland U20 56.8 16.7 44 81
62 Luke Tuch F USA USHL 57.4 11.9 39 68
63 Tyler Tullio F OSH OHL 58.2 7.7 49 71
64 Ryan Francis F CAP QMJHL 58.5 9.2 52 65
65 Yan Kuznetsov D CON NCAA (HE) 58.5 27.9 22 95
66 Veeti Miettinen F KES Finland U20 59.6 19.8 39 90
67 Will Cuylle F WSR OHL 59.8 14.9 43 76
68 Martin Chromiak F KGN OHL 60.3 32.7 39 98
69 Theodor Niederbach F FRÖ Superelit 61.2 27.6 29 99
70 Joel Blomqvist G KAR Finland U20 62.3 16.3 48 80
71 Luke Evangelista F LDN OHL 62.4 17.8 31 89
72 Michael Benning D SHER AJHL 63.8 14.7 44 82
73 Oliver Suni F OSH OHL 65.3 13.4 53 82
74 Simon Kubicek D SEA WHL 67.7 34.0 31 98
75 Francis Langlois F MON QMJHL 69.7 13.1 55 80
76 Samuel Knazko D TPS Finland U20 70.0 7.1 65 75
77 Brett Berard F USA USHL 70.5 27.7 24 103
78 Brock Faber D USA USHL 70.6 25.1 50 104
79 William Villeneuve D SNB QMJHL 72.6 26.4 46 109
80 Pavel Novak F KEL WHL 73.8 15.6 62 96
81 Theo Rochette F CHI/QUE QMJHL 74.5 28.5 56 117
82 Alexander Nikishin D MHK-SM MHL 76.0 24.5 51 100
83 Jack Finley F SPO WHL 77.0 13.8 62 89
84 Roby Jarventie F ILV Finland U20 78.5 36.0 39 116
85 Juuso Maenpaa F JOK Finland U20 80.0 1.4 79 81
86 Dylan Peterson F USA USHL 81.0 41.4 50 142
87 Ryder Rolston F WAT USHL 81.5 19.7 55 102
88 Antoine Desrochers D VIC QMJHL 82.3 29.5 52 111
89 Maxim Groshev F RN MHL 84.0 19.7 68 106
90 Ruben Rafkin D WSR OHL 85.8 30.0 52 125
91 Blake Biondi F SC USHL 87.5 24.8 70 105
92 Landon Slaggert F USA USHL 87.5 21.9 72 103
93 Pavel Tyutnev F LOKO MHL 88.0 38.2 63 132
94 Jack Thompson D SBY OHL 88.3 17.2 73 107
95 Michal Gut F EVT WHL 90.0 0.0 90 90
96 Donovan Sebrango D KIT OHL 90.2 40.7 47 145
97 Alex Laferriere F DM USHL 90.5 35.0 56 139
98 Daemon Hunt D MJ WHL 91.8 46.4 48 170
99 Daniel Torgersson F FRÖ Superelit 92.6 54.1 39 171
100 Lukas Svejkovsky F VAN/MH WHL 93.0 8.7 83 99
101 Brandon Coe F NB OHL 96.0 17.0 84 108
102 Ivan Didkovsky F MHK-DM MHL 97.3 32.8 71 134
103 Adam Raska F RIM QMJHL 97.5 9.2 91 104
104 Patrick Guay F SHE QMJHL 99.5 19.1 86 113

Rank = The Average ranking of all rankings which listed the player
SD = Standard Deviation for said rankings
High = Highest ranked by any service.
Low = Lowest ranked by any service

There are a few areas to note here.

Alexis Lafreniere is the consensus #1 pick, all services have him ranked 1st. We’re going to consider Lafreniere as a guaranteed 1st overall selection going forward. There’s also a very clear cluster of players ranked above 7th overall on average. This will feature heavily in the next part and will thus be referred to as the top 8 cluster. This group is a testament to how strong the draft is in the top area of the draft.

That’s this part wrapped up then, if you have any questions about any of the rankings or players let me know, I’ll try to keep an eye on the comments. In the next part we’re going to go over each of the Red Wings options with their 1st pick, wherever it lands. We’ll look at who might be available, as well as some personal opinions.

This is a fanpost written by a WIIM community member. The views and opinions expressed here are that member's and do not necessarily reflect the views of the site itself.

Recent FanPosts

In This FanPost

Teams
Players