This is obviously breaking news: the Red Wings are having a rough season. If you’re like me and you’ve been watching most or all of the games this season, you’re finding it incredibly difficult at this point to find much positivity or optimism.
I’ve decided to try and do something this year’s coaching staff seemingly refuses to do: try and improve my production by changing my approach.
I’m not writing this to defend the Yzerplan. I still believe in the Yzerplan and consider Detroit’s GM to be steadfastly and consistently dedicated to it. When Yzerman displaced Holland in 2019, he said he believes the best way to build a consistent contender in this salary-capped League is through the Draft and player development. He continued to assert that because of the state of Detroit’s prospect pipeline, this approach was going to take an uncomfortably long time to yield an NHL roster that could push deep into the Stanley Cup Playoffs. This, to me, is the Yzerplan: Patience, Drafting, and Player Development. What I’d like to try to defend today (with my newfound positivity, friends!) is the execution thru 5.5 years of Yzerman’s tenure. I think it’s important to try and separate the Plan from the Execution, the Vision from the Tactics. Since the Plan has such a snazzy name, I thought I’d float one for the Execution thereof. Today, let’s defend the RebYld (official trademark pending, obvs).
Now, I know I said I have newfound positivity, but I think this article would be rather disingenuous if it ignored the negatives, of which there are plenty. I don’t want to analyze them, per se (again, positivity!), but I do want to acknowledge some tippy-top abject failures as I see them during this RebYld. First, the Priority patch. I know this is a League-wide trend and everything, but this has clearly been a colossal error. My suggestion: buck the trend, forego the greed, and let St. Jude’s ‘sponsor’ the Red Wings for free and get some good juju. Second: Kane and Tanguay. I litigate these things far too much and often and I’m working really hard to reset my attitude, but let’s stop employing mortal enemies, shall we? Third, that Walman trade. Just, woof..
Okay, now that those are out of the way (and henceforth disregarding coaching) let’s dig into the meat of Yzerman’s transactions. I’m going to approach this fairly chronologically leaning more heavily on recent years than his first two for a couple reasons. First, not even the Elder Wand could have made the Red Wings competitive from 2019-2021. Second, the pandemic and the flat cap situations during that time frame made things much more difficult when it comes to making significant roster changes.
2019-2020
Yzerman orchestrated 8 trades in his first year at the helm, all of which were either ultimately irrelevant or a solid move for the franchise. He got Robby Fabbri for Jacob De La Rose, Sam Gagner and two 2nd rounders for Athanasiou, and Marc Staal and a 2nd rounder for Red Wings Legend Future Considerations. In the Draft, Yzerman took Moritz Seider in the first round, Antti Tuomisto, Robert Mastrosimone, and Albert Johansson in the second, and Elmer Soderblom in the 6th.
A running trend here will be that things get much less inspiring when we move forward to free agency. Yzerman signed Val Filppula, Patrik Nemeth, and Cal Pickard (yuck) while letting Frk, Witkowski, and Zach Gallant walk. That’s it. Something I find interesting about this year is, in my opinion, the summer of 2019 was really the best Free Agency Class so far during Yzerman’s time as Detroit GM. The “consensus top 5” free agents that season were Artemi Panarin (who signed $81.5MM for 7 years), Matt Duchene ($56MM for 7 years), Sergei Bobrovsky ($70MM, 7 years), Joe Pavelski (3x$7MM) and Corey Perry (!) (1x$1.5MM).
Two things of note for me here. 1) I think we’d all agree that absolutely zero top free agent talent was interested in joining the Red Wings during these years and 2) look at how FAST the quality of available free agents drops. Missed out on Panarin, Bobrovsky, and Duchene? Oh, you weren’t even all that interested in Bobrovsky OR Duchene? Cool! Corey f’n Perry’s available!
2020-2021
This season saw 6 more trades from the Red Wings, with the first 5 all being largely forgotten within 48 hours (apologies to the one fan still in a tizzy about that Lashoff-for-Savard trade). Then came the first big trade in what seemed like a long long time for this franchise. Anthony Mantha, he of the frustratingly unrealized talent and glass hands, was traded for a 1st rounder, 2nd rounder, Jakub Vrana, and Richard Panik. In hindsight, this trade doesn’t seem to be all that impactful for either franchise, but I think it’s still safe to say Yzerman ‘won’ this one.
After getting screwed in the draft lottery again, Yzerman was still fairly productive. Lucas Raymond, William Wallinder, Theodor Niederbach, Cross Hanas, Donovan Sebrango, Eemil Viro, and Jan Bednar are all notables from this class.
No players left in free agency, but 8 absolute bangers came in: Bobby Ryan, Jon Merrill, Riley Barber, Kevin Boyle, Kyle Criscuolo, Thomas Greiss, Troy Stetcher, and Vladislav Namestnikov. I’ll give you a moment to recover from your whiplash/nostalgia.
So going back again to the Talking Heads’ consensus top free agents from this class: Tuukka Rask (lolz), Blake Coleman, Philipp Grubauer (also lolz), Dougie Hamilton, Zach Hyman, and Philip Danault. Now, I will say that of all the free agents during Yzerman’s tenure, “the one that got away” for me is far and away Dougie Hamilton. I think highly of Hamilton and believe we would be a much different team right now with his services. Beyond him though, do any of these “top” free agents inspire you today? Yeah, me either.
2021-2022
This was by far Yzerman’s busiest year from a transactions standpoint. Six more trades happened including bringing in Alex Nedeljkovic for Jonathan Bernier and a 3rd as well as Oskar Sundqvist, Jake Walman and a 2nd rounder for Nick Leddy and Luke Witkowski. Two more big trade wins if you ask me! He drafted Edvinsson and Sebastian Cossa in the 1st, and later-round picks Shai Buium, Carter Mazur, and Liam Dower Nilsson have NHL potential. He signed / re-signed over a dozen players, bought out Frans Nielsen’s contract, and signed 11 free agents: Oesterle, Suter, Ryan Murphy, Dan Renouf, Luke Witkowski (the Magnus Hellberg of D-men), oh! Magnus Hellberg, Brian Lashoff, Carter Rowney, Turner Elson, Pontus Andreasson, and Steven Kampfer. We saw 9 players leave in free agency including Cool Backhand Luke Glendening, Darren Helmhands Helm, Val Filppula, and Evegeny Svechnikov.
There were a lot of marquis names in this free agency class. Patrice Bergeron, Johnny Gaudreau, Evgeni Malkin, Tomas Hertl, John Klingberg, Filip Forsberg, Kris Letang, Claude Giroux, Marc-Andre Fleury, Vincent Trocheck, Ondrej Palat, Hampus Lindholm, and Nazem Kadri. One can certainly litigate the value of each individual here, but other than Gaudreau’s surprise Columbus election, there really wasn’t as much value for Detroit here as one might think at first glance. Most of this list was just beginning the downside of their respect careers while still demanding a salary reflective of their primes. Hertl and Gaudreau both could have fit the RebYld timeline with great value, but I genuinely have no problem with a “pass” on the rest.
2022-2023
Five more trades this year. Ville Husso was brought in for a 3rd round pick, but the big ones were at the trade deadline shipping out Tyler Bertuzzi (still stings the eyeballs just a bit) for a 1st and a 4th and Filip Hronek and a 4th for a 1st and a 4th. I still absolutely believe these were the right moves with strong value in the returns.
This draft is arguably the weakest of the bunch with Marco Kasper and late-rounders Anton Johansson and Amadeus Lombardi seemingly being the only noteworthy picks at this point.
This free agency class, though, is a source of great physical pain. Yzerman brought in Ben Chiarot, Andrew Copp, Austin Czarnik, Dominik Kubalik, Matt Luff, David Perron, Olli Maatta, Mark Pysyk, and Robert Hagg while letting Thomas Greiss, Magnus Hellberg, Cal Pickard, Dan Renouf, Marc Staal, Sam Gagner and several others walk. But we’ve got to ice a team, right? Who were the other options?
Sorry to keep using the “consensus best” free agents available, but it’s the easiest resource to grab. Apparently, those players included Dmitry Orlov, Ryan O’Reilly, Tyler Bertuzzi, Matt Dumba, Patrick Kane, Vlad Tarasenko, Alex Killorn, Matt Duchene, and Max Domi. We had just traded away Bertuzzi, and I think we all know the value Kane and Tarasenko bring at this point. I am Jack’s Complete Lack of Inspiration.
2023-2024
Just three trades last year, two of which involved Klim Kostin, Kailer Yamamoto, and Red Wings Legend Future Considerations. The Big One, of course, was bringing in Alex DeBrincat for Dominik Kubalik, Donovan Sebrango, a 1st and a 4th. Yep, I’ll take that one every time.
This draft has me excited. Nate Danielson, Axel Sandin-Pellikka, and Trey Augustine are all future NHL’ers, and have genuine potential to be bona fide stars in this League. Time of course will tell.
After letting Nedeljkovic, Hellberg (really, dude?), Oesterle, Hagg, and Zadina walk, Yzerman brought in a plethora of players in free agency: Michael Hutchinson, Patrick Kane, Zach Aston-Reese, Nolan Stevens, Christian Fischer, J.T. Compher, Shayne Gostisbehere, Tim Gettinger, Alex Lyon, Brogan Rafferty, Daniel Sprong, James Reimer, and Justin Holl.
Since it’s just last year, you may remember top options available included Elias Lindholm, Brandon Montour, Brady Skjei, Jake DeBrusk, Matt Roy, Brett Pesce, Steven Stamkos, Nikita Zadorov, Johnathan Marchessault, Sean Monahan, Brendan Tanev, and Tyler Toffoli.
Now, would Lindholm, Roy, or Monahan make us better than Compher? Yep. Skjei or Zadorov instead of Holl? Toffoli instead of Kane? Yep and yep. Could Yzerman genuinely motivate any of those players to don the Winged Wheel? No way of telling. Could those moves be pulled off within the salary cap? Not if you want to re-sign Seider and Raymond. Not even close. And I’d like to keep those two, please and thank you.
2024-2025
Well, it’s almost Christmas, so welcome to the present. 4 trades so far this year which amount to sending out Robby Fabbri, Olli Maatta, Jake Walman, Andrew Gibson, and a 4th for a 3rd and Future Considerations. Perplexing, but I’m about to start with my whole positivity thing and I will not be deterred! 1st round pick Michael Brandsegg-Nygard is obviously the second coming of Jaromir Jagr (I kid, permit me one fantasy in this article, will ya?).
Aside from Cam Talbot who is basically a Vezina candidate this year if he was playing behind a defense that was remotely competent, this year’s free agent class continues the trend of disappointment with Tyler Motte, Vlad Tarasenko, Erik Gustafsson and company all receiving a resounding ‘meh’ on the best of shifts. We’ll obviously see what this year’s trade deadline, draft, and offseason yield for Yzerman’s Red Wings, but I genuinely don’t expect anything to have a seismic impact on the next season and a half.
The State of Things
One undeniable strength of the RebYld thus far is future cap flexibility. Barring trade, we’re going to have to deal with Compher’s $5.1MM AAV for three more years. Compher notwithstanding, Yzerman has left himself a tremendous amount of cap space to play with in the immediate future. Copp, Tarasenko, Veleno, Chiarot, Holl, and Gustafsson all have contract expiring next year with Lyon, Husso, Petry, Kane, Fischer, and Berggren all expiring this year.
Larkin, Raymond, and Seider are all locked up for years to come (and Rasmussen for 3 more years). Hopefully, DeBrincat demands a fair-but-expensive extension in 2 years. Kasper and Edvinsson have RFA contract negotiations coming up in a couple of years (as do Berggren and Johansson this year).
All of this is coinciding with the imminent arrival of Sandin-Pellikka, Danielson, Cossa, Augustine, Brandsegg-Nygard and maybe a surprise mid-to-late rounder or two. The cap is also project to increase significantly and steadily in the immediate future.
Now, I’m not so blinded by my fandom as to think every single 1st round draft pick Yzerman makes is going to have a Hall of Fame career. In fact, the relative success of Seider and Raymond so far probably decreases the statistical odds of success for Kasper, Danielson, and MBN somehow. I am very bullish on Cossa and ASP, but until they’ve proven themselves, I still think we’re an elite difference maker away from true Cup contention. Maybe Raymond gets there? I doubt it, but there’s certainly still hope. Maybe we somehow get that player in free agency. Totally plausible, and Yzerman will soon have the cap space to make such a splash, but at the end of the day I really fundamentally agree with The Captain. You build a contender through the draft and player development, not free agency..
Positivity Corner!
So how do we get there? How do we get over that hump and grab an elite difference maker that elevates this roster into something we all actually enjoy watching again? Something that commands fear and respect League-wide? To paint a quick picture, I’m going to make two huge assumptions. A) we got that difference maker and B) the following prospects developed appropriately.
Raymond – Elite Player – DeBrincat
Brandsegg-Nygard – Larkin – Mazur
Danielson – Kasper – Rasmussen
Berggren – Compher – Fischer
Edvinsson – Sandin-Pellikka
Wallinder – Seider
Buium – RDFA
Cossa
Augustine
Those line combinations are arbitrary and subject to performance and coaching, but if ASP and Cossa are who we hope they are, Seider and Raymond continue to improve, and Larkin and Debrincat maintain effectiveness, this is a strong and (much more importantly) cost-controlled roster two-and-a-half seasons from now. Granted, those are all BIG ifs, but in this Positivity Corner, they’re reality! And hey, for you longer-term WIIMers out there, how many ‘centers’ do you count on this lineup?
But how do we get that Elite Pivot at the top of the depth chart if not through the draft or free agency? Why, a trade of course! Yzerman has traded exceedingly well in his tenure here (not allowed to bring up that last Walman trade in the Positivity Corner) and when you have an infusion of young talent coupled with cap space, you can be very aggressive. Take the DeBrincat trade and double the cost. If the roster above was showing the promise and ability you want to see, would you be willing to trade two 1sts, two 2nds, two 4ths, and a top prospect for, say, a disgruntled Draisaitl on a declining and cap-strapped team looking to start a rebuild? You bet you would.
Evaluating the RebYld, Defending the RebYld
Still with me? Wow. Simultaneous thanks, apologies, and kudos.
There has been a ton of discourse over the years about just how little Holland left to Yzerman. All that seems to remain is Larkin, Rasmussen, Veleno, and a bag of stale Cheetos. League-wide it’s Filip Hronek, Anthony Glass Hands Mantha, and more stale Cheetos. If you’ve ever had the displeasure of cleaning out the previous home of a hoarder, you’ll know that it takes WAY longer than you’d expect to get rid of that much garbage. It’s slow. It’s arduous. At times it can be painful, and at others it can be downright revolting.
Yzerman is almost there. I can see the floor now. I can finally get to all the doors and windows. I’m not convinced there isn’t a couple more rotten surprises in here, but whatever the hell that smell was is starting to become nothing more than an unpleasant memory.
Would we all have liked this to happen faster? No doubt. But looking back at the misery so far, is there really all that much that could’ve been done different to speed us back to true contention? I think not (though I’d still like Dougie here). Yzerman has done admirably in cleaning this place out. Just a little more bleach and elbow grease and we can start loading it up with what he already has. Some great conversation-starter furniture and art pieces. A state-of-the-art entertainment system with surround sound. A rug that really ties the room together. And he’s done it steadily enough with enough fiscal responsibility to go out and splurge on the finishing touches here soon and really make this place the envy of the entire neighborhood.
