Feelin' Lucky: Red Wings Draft Lottery Thoughts

Aren't the Wings due for a little lottery luck?

Lottery balls
Photo by dylan nolte / Unsplash

The 2023 NHL Draft Lottery odds are set and Detroit's chance of landing the first pick are slim-to-none. Five-percent chance for those of you wondering.

It seems like forever ago that the Wings had the best chance to get the first. That was back in 2020 – the Alexis Lafreniere draft. Detroit wound up picking fourth and got themselves Lucas Raymond. Fast-forward to present time, and hey – five-percent chance. That suggests that the team is improving! But if you're anything like me, you're spending some time on Tankathon's website. I've ran their lottery simulator a handful of times and it usually has Detroit at picks nine through 11. Again – slim chance to get first overall.

The 2023 NHL Draft Lottery is slated for Monday, May 8 at 7pm on ESPN and Sportsnet. It will be some riveting television, I'm sure. Here's how the odds shake out:

  • Anaheim: 18.5% (actually 25.5% because we all asked for more numbers)
  • Columbus: 13.5%
  • Chicago: 11.5%
  • San Jose: 9.5%
  • Montreal: 8.5%
  • Arizona: 7.5%
  • Philadelphia: 6.5%
  • Washington: 6%
  • Detroit: 5%
  • St. Louis: 3.5%
  • Vancouver: 3%

Getting first overall in the 2023 NHL Draft means one player: Connor Bedard. He's the best prospect the sport has seen since Connor McDavid. The dude is a cheat code.

It's a pretty crappy year to not have better odds at the first pick – and good luck trying to swing a trade. That pick should be considered an untouchable asset.

The Wings technically have a less-slim chance at landing the second pick. Tankathon has those odds at 5.4%. It's also a good year to have the second pick because of prospects like Hobey Baker-winning Adam Fantilli or Russian scoring-phenom Matvei Michkov. After losing out in the 2020 lottery, maybe Detroit is due for some good luck. Call it a pipe dream.

The 2023 NHL Draft class is top-heavy with forwards. After drafting Marco Kasper in the previous Draft, I expect a defenseman in the first round with either of Detroit's two picks (the other from NYI). I would expect that defenseman will be from Europe as well. I have no information to back this up, it's more of a hunch. The best part about the WIIM community is that we have a lot of fans in Europe or who follow Euro leagues. I'm sure we'll hear from those friends in our comments section!

Steve Yzerman has five picks in the first two rounds of this Draft. That's a lot of capital to work with... Especially if the Wings can find themselves on the lucky end of the lottery.

I don't expect the free agency market to be red-hot this offseason. As I mentioned in a previous article, there are a handful of players that will need to be tendered and targeting a goalie needs to be a priority. I think with the needs the Red Wings have and Steve Yzerman's ambition, the Draft may get interesting. It's just a thought, but all the ingredients are there.

Here's my last thought and it's really not really Draft-related.

I wanted to thank everyone who has shown so much support over the last week or so. Whether you've signed up for a free account or a premium, it means a lot. For the time being, it will be a skeleton crew around here. I have a handful of people I plan to bring on board to get this site humming again. In the meantime, you're stuck with my Red Wings thoughts (scary).

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