If you are a fan of following exactly how over it is, tonight could be the night.
Any point not achieved by the Red Wings from here on out or any point gained by the Canadiens (who are in Ottawa tonight) officially mathematically eliminates Detroit. I believe Detroit would even have to win out in regulation in order to catch Montreal’s tiebreaker advantage. We’re talking fractions of a percentage of hope remaining.
On top of that, the Blue Jackets and Rangers both hopped the Red Wings… which is good news for those of you looking at the standings upside-down. Realistically, Detroit (currently 22nd in the NHL) could fall as many as four more spots (to 26th) before the regular season is over, with the NY Islanders, Anaheim, Buffalo and Pittsburgh all within at least three points… which is a whopping 3.5% increase in first-overall odds (3.0% to 6.5%).
I don’t know about you, but the prospect of that is a bummer to me, as I definitely consider the Red Wings a step above those teams (they are a combined 9-3 against those four this season, for what it’s worth). But the standings are the standings, you’re only as good as what you’ve earned, and many would argue that’s exactly where the team deserves to be.
But I refuse to be all doom and gloom, so I wanted to share some interesting numbers I came across from Michael Clifford on Twitter, via the Red Wings’ subreddit, regarding Marco Kasper:
Michael’s whole piece is worth a read, free on his Substack. Presenting fancystats in a way that doesn’t make my eyes glaze over is a skill that not many possess (which is a reflection more on me than anything else). Kasper’s play, and production, has exceeded the high-end of my expectations for the season and is arguably the single most important development for the franchise this season for a player that the prospect analysts out there were generally lukewarm on at best.
On tonight: no news around the Red Wings today, typical for a back-to-back. It was a bummer that Elmer Soderblom was yet again unable to go due to his lingering injury, as he’s looked pretty good despite it. It’s not worth risking worsening something ahead of a big summer for him, though. On last night’s TV broadcast, Ken Daniels mentioned Petr Mrazek was in line to return today (he did back up last night), so we’ll assume he’s starting unless we hear otherwise.
This is a meaningful game for Tampa Bay, who are three points back of Toronto’s division lead. You never want to overlook a Wild card team that got hot down the stretch, but I’m sure both of those teams would rather see Ottawa or Montreal in the first round over Florida. The only news on the Lightning front is that old friend Luke Glendening is likely out for the remainder of the regular season and hopeful to return for the start of the playoffs.
How to Watch
Time: 7:00 p.m. EDT
TV: FanDuel Sports Network Detroit
Radio: WWJ 950 AM
Red Wings Projected Lineup
DeBrincat – Larkin – Kane
Rasmussen – Kasper – Raymond
Berggren – Compher – Tarasenko
Smith – Motte – Watson
Chiarot – Seider
Edvinsson – Petry
Johansson – Holl
Mrazek
Talbot
Lightning Projected Lineup
Guentzel – Point – Kucherov
Hagel – Cirelli – Goncalves
Paul – Gourde – Bjorkstrand
Girgensons – Chaffee
Hedman – Moser
McDonagh – Cernak
Lilleberg – Perbix
Raddysh
Vasilevskiy
Johansson
