This is starting to feel pretty familiar. Around this time in each of the past few seasons, we’ve used these posts to detail the intricate dance that needs to unfold for Detroit to keep its playoff hopes alive.
It doesn’t feel worthwhile this year. Not as much because I feel defeated, but because it just feels like the hockey gods have it in for this team. [Larry] Murphy’s Law, or something. Tuesday’s game against Columbus was a solid effort, but everyone saw it coming. Multiple lost 50/50 battles to get the puck out of the zone. Several icing calls that just barely trickled over the line and prevented Detroit’s tired players from getting a change. Once Columbus pulled the goalie, there was not a second that elapsed where the Red Wings were not on their heels.
Let’s be clear: this is all self-inflicted. This is now a trend of multiple blown leads over the past six weeks in particular, when holding onto even a couple of them, or bouncing back in overtime, would see Detroit alive and well in the playoff race right now. But as it stands, The Athletic has its playoff chances down to 5%. That means winning out and getting a heck of a lot of help from any teams playing Ottawa, Columbus or the Islanders.
Maybe it’s the cosmic price for the four Cups. When the team tanks, it can’t get lottery luck (though I’d argue that Raymond and Seider have massively overperformed almost all of the guys they missed out on due to lottery misfortune). So much so, in fact, that the lottery odds eventually change to the benefit of teams at the very bottom. When they’re ready to spend in free agency, the cap starts shooting up so much that no one useful is even coming close to the open market. When they want to add at the deadline, there are few sellers and prices are sky high.
When they look ready to turn the corner and get into the postseason, every team around them in the East is suddenly red hot, and the past month has been practically worst-case-scenario every night. The Red Wings are all but dead right now with a point total just ahead of Edmonton and Vegas, one of whom is going to hang a banner for a regular-season Pacific Division title. I’d almost guarantee that one of two will be competing in the Western Conference Final at the end of May.
The bounces on the ice mirror the bounces off the ice. It’s been a rocky road. The Red Wings have definitely not made perfect roster decisions at every turn, no team has. Just as they’ve not played well enough, especially when their fate was in their own hands. But… is this not just ridiculous, or is it just me? Let’s hope this is the end of our karmic punishment.
But there are games left, so onward we go. It’s been tough listening to the dejection coming from the dressing room of late. Even though it might be moot, I want to see them go down swinging. I think my opinion has changed on quite a few guys who I thought would be rising to the occasion this time of year. Some are hurt, but every team has that at this time of year. The only silver lining I can muster is that this could be a blessing in disguise. In a less dramatic unraveling, management might be encouraged by a group that got close and figure they’re just a couple of pieces away from the next step.
It’s certainly not looking like that at the moment. It’s looking like we have a few players who can perform with their backs against the wall, and too many who are running from the fight. Going through the motions. Their only chance at playing beyond next week is to win out. I’d argue that tonight is the toughest test left. Philadelphia is looking good for a playoff spot, but can’t throw away any easy points (which a team that has lost five straight at home certainly looks like). Of the games remaining, New Jersey and Florida are already done, and Tampa may have nothing to play for except seeding, if that. Let’s see who wants to send a message on the way out.
How to Watch
Time: 7:00 p.m. EDT
TV: FanDuel Sports Network
Radio: 97.1 The Ticket
Lineup notes: Just a guess with Rasmussen and Appleton likely out, but I wouldn’t be shocked if they recalled a forward either since they’re getting exactly nothing from that bottom six. Also assuming that JBD will slot in for ASP.
Red Wings Projected Lineup
Finnie – Larkin – Raymond
DeBrincat – Copp – Kane
Perron – Compher – Mazur
van Riemsdyk – Kasper – Shine
Edvinsson – Seider
Chiarot – Faulk
Johansson – Bernard-Docker
Gibson
Talbot
Flyers Projected Lineup
Foerster – Zegras – Tippett
Konecny – Dvorak – Martone
Bump – Cates – Michkov
Barkey – Couturier – Glendening
Sanheim – Ristolainen
York – Drysdale
Seeler – Andrae
Vladar
Ersson
Rooting Guide: Toronto over Islanders, Buffalo over Columbus, Florida over Ottawa, but more than anything, just one Red Wings game that gives us something to feel good about. How ’bout a Marco Kasper hat trick?
