Let’s be real; we’ve all watched that Lucas Raymond game-tying goal against Montreal at least ten times. The clutch, season-saving goal was the most exciting moment for the Detroit Red Wings since the early 2010s. And while it ultimately didn’t lead to a playoff berth, it was a clutch moment that hinted at more of what’s to come for the young Swede. However, it was far more than just that one game against Montreal that showed how much he had grown throughout the year. How he played the last couple of months of the season is a sign of things to come. Lucas Raymond is about to become a star in this league.
The Goal Scoring Breakout
When the Red Wings drafted Lucas Raymond fourth overall in 2020, he was projected as an all-around playmaker. While it was known he could score goals, he was expected to be a playmaker first. However, in the final couple of months of the season, he became an elite goal scorer. Over the final 18 games of the season, he scored 14 goals including a five-game streak in March where he scored seven goals. The streak was at a time when the team was without captain and leading goal-scorer Dylan Larkin and was desperate for scoring to come from elsewhere. Raymond provided and his 18-game stretch was on a 63-goal pace for an 82-game season.
That’s not to say he’ll end up being a 60-goal scorer. That would be wild to predict. However, his career-high 31 goals last season feels like a start to what could become a perennial 40-goal scorer. The Red Wings haven’t had one of those in 30 years and it would give them something they desperately need to help bring them back to consistent playoff relevance.
The biggest question mark will be his shooting percentage and if it’s sustainable. At times, shooting percentage can come down to luck and there’s always a worry that it can regress to the mean. In his first two seasons in Detroit, Raymond had a 12.5% and 12.7% shooting percentage respectively. In 2023-24, he had a 19.0% shooting percentage, ranking ninth in the entire NHL ahead of players such as leading goal scorer Auston Matthews, 54 goal-scorer Zach Hyman, and Hart Trophy winner Nathan MacKinnon. During March and April in which he played 22 games, he shot at an absurd 27.4%. That number is certainly not sustainable, but it makes 19.0% look much more achievable.
That number increase can come from a couple of reasons. He took fewer shots on goal this year than his rookie year but a big reason for that is he’s not relied upon nearly as much due to the increase of talent the team has seen. This allows him to get more space and take better shots with better looks, giving him a better chance to finish rather than just firing at the net and hoping for the best. On top of that, you can tell his shot has improved. He picked corners far more often than previous seasons and that alone is a huge way to improve your shooting percentage. The biggest part in getting that goal total up will be increasing the shot count. He took 163 shots on goal last year which is just under two shots per game. That’s not enough and I’d look for him to break the 200 barrier this season as his role increases again.
Even Strength Improvements
The Red Wings power play saw serious improvements in 2023-24 and it would feel safe to assume that Raymond’s career-high 72 points came from that. However, it’s actually the exact opposite. 2023-24 was Raymond’s least career points on the power play so far. Just 16 of his 72 points came with the man-advantage compared to 18 in his rookie year and 19 in his sophomore campaign. In fact, in 2022-23, he had the same amount of assists at even strength as he did on the power play (14). That changed in a massive way in 2023-24.
His 56 even-strength points were just one behind his career high in total points from his rookie year. That is a massive improvement from the 26 from his sophomore year and it’s the largest sign of growth you hope to see from a young player. In his sophomore year, there were worries that the league was figuring him out. His numbers plummeted and it became a struggle for him to score at even strength. That completely changed last season as Raymond seemed to be both figuring out the league but also figuring out himself.
You do hope the power play numbers increase. With the playmakers on this power play unit such as Larkin, Kane, DeBrincat, and Seider, you would hope to see that improve for him the way it did for others. But the even-strength scoring is both more important and also more sustainable and I expect that number to increase this year. If the power play numbers increase with it, we’ll be in for a massive year from Raymond.
The Player Comps
One of the strangest delusions I’ve seen from several Red Wing fans I’ve talked to about Lucas Raymond is that unless you’ve had 100 points in a season by age 22, you’re just never going to do it ever. It’s an extremely bizarre argument about young players, especially since you don’t often see players reach their prime until their late 20s. With that in mind, most of the league’s current top scorers had incredibly similar starts to their careers as Lucas Raymond. The majority of them started in the NHL within 2 years of being drafted and their third NHL season was very close to, or sometimes even less impressive, than Raymond’s.
Let’s start with the reigning Art Ross Trophy winner and former MVP, Nikita Kucherov. In his third NHL season, he had 66 points. His 30 goals and 36 assists were both fewer than Raymond’s in his third season. Kucherov then followed that up with his first career 40-goal season in year four and has since put up four 100+ point seasons including 128 in 2018-19 and 144 in 2023-24. How about reigning MVP Nathan MacKinnon? MacKinnon actually started even slower than Raymond despite being a #1 overall pick. Through his first four seasons, he didn’t have a single season with more than 63 points with that being his rookie season. He then followed that up with several 90+ point campaigns including multiple that would’ve reached 100+ had he remained healthy. He’s now gone over 110 in each of his last two seasons and won an MVP with 140 points in 2023-24.
Next, we go to David Pastrňák, the fifth-leading point-scorer in 2023-24. In his third NHL season, he had a very similar 70 points. In his age 23 season, he scored 48 goals and had 95 points and is now coming off back-to-back 110+ point seasons. Lastly, we go to another former MVP winner in Leon Draisaitl. In his first three full campaigns, his career high was 77 points. Since then? He has over 100 points in every single non-COVID shortened campaign and even that season saw him score 84 in just 56 games.
This is four of the top seven scorers in the entire NHL last season, all of which had extremely similar or worse starts to their careers than Raymond. The three players from the top seven I didn’t mention? A man who didn’t come to the NHL until he was 24, a generational playmaker who is the greatest player of the modern era, and a generational goal scorer who almost scored 70 last year. Now, this isn’t to say that Lucas Raymond is guaranteed to be as good as all of these players and there are examples of players who started similarly to Raymond who never reached these heights. But to say he hasn’t shown the potential to reach those heights? That’s just ridiculous.
So…Breakout?
I’m firmly of the belief that Lucas Raymond will reach the upper echelon of forwards in this league. I think the way he moves with the puck on his stick as well as his excellent offensive zone awareness and improved shot will be key tools that help him grow beyond anything we’ve seen from a Red Wings forward since the likes of Datsyuk and Zetterberg. The biggest question becomes then: when does it happen? When does he break out?
Looking at the majority of star players in this league, it happens around their fourth and fifth seasons in the league, especially when they start at age 19 like Raymond did. For me, I believe that the breakout is upon us this season. I truly believe that 2024-25 is the year that Lucas Raymond makes that first big step to becoming a top forward. And I don’t just mean an extra ten points or so from last season. With the way he ended last season and the improvements that he surely would’ve made in the offseason, I’m predicting him to be the Red Wings first 100-point scorer since Sergei Fedorov in 1995-96.
I know that’s a crazy prediction but I feel like he has the tools to do it. And with an ever-improving cast of players around him, that’s only gonna help the young Swede reach his full potential. I think he reaches 40 goals for the first time this season, becoming the first Red Wing to do it since Marian Hossa in 2008-09. I think him doing this also helps Dylan Larkin finally break that elusive 80-point barrier he hasn’t been able to break. If Raymond is feeding him, we could even see Larkin also reach 40 goals which he was on pace to do last season had he not missed 14 games due to injury. I think that duo, if kept together all year, can help turn Lucas Raymond into the superstar that Detroit has needed for so long and can finally bring them back to the playoffs. Enjoy the ride, Hockeytown. 2024-25 ought to be a fun season.
