It’s not often a franchise arrives at a crossroads at the drop of a tweet.
In what was already a high-stakes offseason for the Red Wings, the intensity was cranked to 11 after Elliotte Friedman’s report that Dylan Larkin has requested a trade, later confirmed by Max Bultman. There’s no miscommunication here with multiple sources of that caliber getting the same news.
I’m usually a believer that the team netting the best player in a trade wins the trade, meaning it’s going to be difficult for Detroit to come out ahead here. Recent high returns for players like Jack Eichel, Matthew Tkachuk and Quinn Hughes have, so far, looked like massive wins for the teams who acquired them (as early as next week, Eichel and Tkachuk could each have two Cups in the last four years). It’s a damning vote of no confidence for a team to have its hometown star captain wanting out, especially with how well things were going prior to the Olympic Break.
Larkin isn’t quite that caliber of player, but he isn’t far off. He comes with more contract certainty than any of those — Tkachuk was a sign-and-trade, Eichel later extended in Vegas and Hughes will be next summer’s top free agent if he so chooses. Larkin is turning 30 this summer and is under contract for five more seasons at $8.7 million. As the cap goes up, that deal looks better and better. With the open market looking as weak as it does this summer, imagine what he’d command if he were a free agent. His offensive numbers were a tick under his stretch of three near point-per-game seasons from 2021-24, but I’m not sure his stock has been higher after his showings at the 4 Nations and Olympics as a player who continually outperformed his role on the depth chart and earned more ice time in key situations.
Why now?
It’s radio silence from both the Red Wings and the Larkin camp at the moment, which is curious because I feel the first side to speak has an opportunity to seize the narrative.
It’s never been easy for Larkin in Detroit, breaking in at the very tail end of a legendary playoff streak and watching franchise icons slowly move into retirement. As someone who worked in the PR department for the team during this stretch, I immensely respect and appreciate the leadership role he took on from a young age, answering to the media whenever he was asked. It can take a mental toll to have to answer for so much losing, especially when many of those teams were deeply uncompetitive, and Larkin’s own performance was generally strong. But the media doesn’t want to hear from Joe Third Liner who won’t be here the following season, they always wanted Larkin.
From his point, I see it. Turning 30 and hasn’t seen the postseason since he was a teenager, the East, especially the Atlantic, looks like an absolute dogfight for the next several seasons, and he’s tasted winning with the U.S. Men’s Olympic Team (with many teammates who orchestrated their own trades). It’s hard to see the light at the end of the tunnel for those like Detroit, with how easy it is for teams to keep their best players right now.
At the same time, Larkin isn’t without blame. The annual March collapses have coincided with Larkin cooling off and/or battling injury. While he was generally integral to the strong starts that preceded those rough finishes, managing an 82-game schedule is a challenge every player has to learn. His 5-on-5 scoring down the stretch this year was of particular concern; over his final 16 games following the Olympic Break — all crucial for Detroit — he scored just once at 5-on-5. He did add five power play goals, one shorthanded goal and one 3-on-3 overtime goal in that span, but it underscored an offense that couldn’t get much going at even strength.
But it’s a heck of a message to send from a guy wearing the same history-steeped ‘C’ that Sid Abel, Gordie Howe, Ted Lindsay, Alex Delvecchio, Steve Yzerman, Nicklas Lidstrom and Henrik Zetterberg all wore. That’s why, despite Friedman’s inclusion in his initial report that Yzerman won’t be bullied into action, I think this will get done this month. You simply can’t be back in that dressing room after telling that group, especially some of the young guys who individually had good years, that you don’t believe in them anymore.
While the Finals are ongoing, I think there are at least 14 teams disappointed they didn’t get longer runs who will at least look into this, not to mention a handful of non-playoff teams who will see Larkin as their way to reach the next level. If you think you’re capable of winning a Cup in the next five years, you are making a phone call about Larkin.
The silver lining…ish
At a time when people are looking for this rebuild’s end date, Detroit will be shopping an asset more valuable than it has at any point previously. He is the best player available this summer by some margin. In many ways, Larkin’s camp chose ideal timing on leaking this news, if there is such a thing. Teams know exactly where they are picking in the upcoming draft, and have not yet spent all available cap space during free agency. This is the time to make blockbuster moves.
And many mentioned in our comments yesterday, besides Larkin at 29-going-on-30 and DeBrincat at 28, Detroit’s most valuable assets are age 19-25: Seider, Raymond, Edvinsson, Kasper, Sandin Pellikka, Finnie, Danielson, Brandsegg-Nygard, Bear, Postava… potentially, Amadeus Lombardi, Carter Mazur, William Wallinder, Shai Buium, who knows what happens with Cossa… and further down the road, Max Plante, Eddie Genborg, Anton Johansson, Trey Augustine and others.
Even the rookies in that group may need another year or two to fully reach their NHL potential, with a few guys another couple of years away, at least. While it doesn’t mean Detroit can’t or shouldn’t also be trying to make the playoffs so the older members of the core get that experience, those are valuable seasons of a dwindling prime for Larkin to burn if this drought goes any longer. This provides Detroit the opportunity to add as many as 3-4 quality young assets that better fit that age range.
I’m not talking straight futures, either, a player like Larkin should easily return one or two younger, established NHL players, and some extra prospects or picks to balance out any value gaps — though depending on how much they like this class, they could land a replacement 2026 first-round pick. This is a reset that corrects a stretch of bad drafts — especially missed first-round picks — between Larkin’s draft (2014) and Seider’s (2019). It also effectively ends Holland’s impact on this roster, with Larkin and Rasmussen being the only players who joined the organization before 2019.
It’s a franchise-defining move and the most significant move for Yzerman’s managerial legacy in Detroit. That said, Larkin holds a full no-trade clause, not a limited one. Limited no-trade clauses mean you supply a list of X number of teams you’d be willing to move to. He doesn’t have to do that; he can wait and give a thumbs-up or thumbs-down once a deal is verbally agreed to. For a clean exit and to expedite the process, his camp would be wise to provide a list of top destinations.
Beyond that, this takes the position of weakness for Detroit and makes it… much, much weaker. With Marco Kasper and Nate Danielson not making much progress this season, the Red Wings are woefully depleted at center, and the market has next to nothing to offer. It seems critical for a young center to be at the heart of this return, though there are several enticing winger scenarios available that will have to be considered.
That’s where we’re at. Now where will Larkin go, what might Detroit get in return? I’m not a fan of mock trades, but I’ll take my best swing at which teams I think are most realistic and who needs to be at the center of the return. Note that each category is presented alphabetically and weighs both potential returns and how appealing it might be for a player who controls his destination.
The contenders
Anaheim – While still on the rise, the Ducks were one of the NHL’s surprise teams and bounced the heavily-favored Oilers. I’d imagine Detroit inquires about wingers like Bennett Sennecke or Cutter Gauthier, but more realistically, Mason McTavish is a 23-year-old center whose growth stunted this season. I could see a package involving him and one of Anaheim’s young defensemen, like Oleg Zellweger or Pavel Mintyukov.
Boston – In a weird spot, given their low expectations this year, but they seem to prefer to reload to take advantage of David Pastrnak’s prime. James Hagens or Dean Letourneau would be a prize, but Fraser Minten is a productive young center a larger package could be built around.
Columbus – It’s hard to see him accepting a trade to another perennial playoff bubble team, but the Blue Jackets were hot down the stretch, and it’d give Larkin a chance to play with his friend Zach Werenski (source: every single hockey broadcast) and stay relatively close to family. Prime young pieces who could be had include Kent Johnson, Denton Mateychuk, Luca Del Bel Belluz and a buy-low situation on Michigan State’s Cayden Lindstrom.
Florida – Doesn’t seem like you can ever leave them out of a rumor about a star player. Anton Lundell is billed as their future Barkov but at 24, do they make the upgrade to take advantage of their current contention window? They also hold the ninth overall pick.
Los Angeles – Holland is likely in his last job and wants to win now. They already made the Panarin splash, but lack established centers to play with him or fellow top-flight wingers Adrian Kempe and Kevin Fiala. Quinton Byfield seemed destined for stardom until a step back this year, would they dangle him for some win-now help?
Minnesota – Bill Guerin was the NHL’s boldest GM this year but has a roster that is weak down the middle with Quinn Hughes’ free agency looming next summer. Matt Boldy may be too ambitious, but Danila Yurov and Charlie Stramel could be the framework of a multi-center return.
New Jersey – The most ridiculous rumor I saw last month was a Larkin-for-Hischier swap. But if Hischier would extend here (UFA next summer), he is an automatic replacement as a #1 center who is three years younger, and Larkin unites with two Hugheses and is in the New York market (albeit Newark).
NY Rangers – Not a playoff team, but their rebuilds are always accelerated by trades over development. If Larkin is a bright-lights guy, perhaps they’d free up Alexis Lafreniere or Gabe Perreault in addition to a short-term patch with Vincent Trocheck.
Toronto – The broadcast always shows Nana Larkin in the crowd, as Dylan’s dad is Canadian. Hard to see him wanting to go to this pressure-cooker unless it is for family reasons, but it’d be quite a shake-up for a new GM in John Chayka inheriting an absolute mess. I don’t think they move #1 overall, but a return would have to feature Easton Cowan and Tinus Luc Koblar, who just won bronze for Norway alongside Michael Brandsegg-Nygard at the World Championship, and much more beyond that.
The maybes
Buffalo – While I included Boston, Florida and Toronto above, it’s hard to see this happening in division unless Larkin forces his way there. I don’t think Buffalo is a destination yet unless this is a purely hockey-related decision (and again, somewhat close to Detroit). I’d have Konsta Helenius circled as a must for any return after a very impressive postseason debut for him.
Carolina – Their future plans will depend on the next week, and their entire forward group is already locked up for next season. If they’re swept, Larkin provides more grit than Sebastian Aho, who has had a quiet playoff. Logan Stankoven has not struggled, but would be the younger piece to zero in on if the Hurricanes want to upgrade down the middle.
Colorado – Here simply because you can’t rule them out, but it seems like they need to shed salary and not add. Very little in the way of future assets are available, but do you say no if they decide that Martin Necas is who they want to move on from?
Chicago – The Blackhawks have moved youth aggressively into their lineup over the last two years and have three enticing young centers behind an already-young Connor Bedard: Frank Nazar, Anton Frondell and Oliver Moore, and a litany of other young assets to balance a trade. It also reunites Larkin with Tyler Bertuzzi. Probably not the win-now situation he probably wants, going back to being a veteran answering for rookie mistakes (under Jeff Blashill no less), but again, close to home and could be timing the Blackhawks’ rise at the right moment.
Dallas – Always in a win-now situation and with a likely leadership hole to fill, with Jamie Benn potentially moving on. Mavrik Bourque is a young center who has been buried on the depth chart; I also wonder if the Red Wings would add a couple of pieces if it meant Jason Robertson comes to his hometown team. Not a center, but potentially the best player the Red Wings could add this summer.
NY Islanders – At least one NHL captain waived his no-trade clause to play with Matthew Schaefer (Brayden Schenn), could there be a second? Not sure the Islanders are yet a destination, but Bo Horvat or Mathew Barzal would be a reasonable 1C solution in a package with a recent first-rounder like Victor Eklund, Cole Eiserman or Danny Nelson.
Philadelphia – They looked finished at the trade deadline, but caught fire after that. Was that real enough for Larkin to put himself through this mess? It’s a similar situation to Detroit, weak down the middle and decent on the wing… more than decent if Porter Martone is the real deal. Matvei Michkov is too much of a gamble to be the centerpiece of this unless the Flyers want to massively overpay beyond him (Jett Luchanko, Jack Nesbitt and Jack Berglund are their top center prospects).
San Jose – I wouldn’t think they’d be in this category, but Mike Grier was noticeably unenthused when the Sharks won the #2 pick at the draft lottery and rumor has it he’d consider moving it. Is Larkin second-overall worthy, giving Detroit a shot at Ivar Stenberg or Caleb Malhotra? Or does the abundance of forwards available make Michael Misa available? This is probably the “highest potential” Detroit could return but again… Celebrini is special, but is this a Cup team in the next five years, or are we chasing a warm-weather destination?
Tampa Bay – No state tax, annual contender and yada yada, but low on desirable young assets aside from Memorial Cup MVP Sam O’Reilly. I don’t quite see how this works, but I would understand why they are potentially on Larkin’s list.
Vegas – Always in on available stars and in need of centers, and their whole deal is that they’re going to ruthlessly improve the team, even if that comes within days of a potential Cup victory. They have virtually nothing for prospects besides the problematic Trevor Connelly, but he and a soon-to-be expensive Pavel Dorofeyev could add scoring for Detroit.
Doubtful
Edmonton – There’s a college connection in Zach Hyman, but they’ve depleted their prospect reserves chasing Cups. A three-headed McDavid-Draisaitl-Larkin monster would be something to behold, but is it worth being stuck in Edmonton if McDavid leaves after this contract?
Montreal – It’s a tough market, and I’m not sure how desperate they are to upgrade after getting as far as they did with a roster that young. Awkwardness in the division, too, but they have the assets to make this happen if they want to, starting with another Michigan center in Michael Hage.
Pittsburgh – They salvaged what looked like a sinking ship, but where are they once Crosby, Malkin and Letang move on? Ben Kindel and Will Horcoff are their top young assets, along with Zam Plante, Red Wings prospect Max’s brother.
St. Louis – I’m still not sure why they’d trade Robert Thomas, but if they wanted four premium assets at the deadline, what does a Larkin swap do for them? I don’t think the Blues are that desirable if you’re Larkin, but there are a few other ways this trade could work (Buchnevich, Kyrou, Dvorsky, Stenberg are also intriguing).
Seattle – I actually think this one makes a ton of sense, other than I don’t know why Larkin would choose to go there. Shane Wright needs a change of scenery, Matty Beniers is a Larkin-lite who hasn’t quite broken out yet, and other youngsters like Berkly Catton and Jake O’Brien make sense for Detroit.
Utah – Like Seattle, they have pieces to make this work — Tij Iginla, Caleb Desnoyers, Danil But, etc. But it’d take a hell of a sales pitch from owner Ryan Smith to make them a top destination for players like this.
No way
Calgary – Total mess right now and not many premier assets to offer.
Ottawa – Brady Tkachuk is likely the next American to demand a trade, but there’s too much bad blood here for this to make any sense at all.
Nashville – Always a sought-after destination for players, but already loaded with aging veterans and not finding much success. Potentially packaging one of them with some of their young pieces is a way to help the Red Wings now and in the future, but it wouldn’t provide any clarity on what direction the Preds are going.
Vancouver – I have seen social chatter floating Pettersson and third overall but… I don’t know why Larkin would waive for this situation, nor why new GM Ryan Johnson would dispatch a top draft pick for a player towards the end of his prime.
Washington – Maybe they get wild if Ovechkin comes back, but it’s not a pretty picture once he’s gone.
Winnipeg – It’s, uh, not an enticing destination, but if he really, really thinks he can only win with Connor Hellebuyck in net, this is where he can find him.
So that exercise was overkill, but I’ll be curious how my destination tiers shake out once the rumor mill starts churning on this one. Without accounting for draft picks, some of those asks seem high, some way too low, but let’s get the community’s take on what sounds best, what you can’t live with, and what I might be missing.
It’s been quiet around here… but we’re in for a ride this month.
