We’ve reached the time of year when phone notifications are at their most threatening. If you carefully follow the insiders, one buzz might be the difference between a franchise-altering move and a depth player drunkenly announcing his own extension at a Stanley Cup rally (NSFW language).
The Cup’s been handed out, and we’ve entered Draft Week with what may perhaps be the dullest free agency of all time on the horizon. The Red Wings have had a pretty bright light shone upon them following Dylan Larkin’s trade request, but news beyond that has been scarce, as expected. But the wheels have started turning around the league, so it’s a good time to take stock of what’s ahead.
The latest on Larkin
Given the continued activity in the comment section on the last Larkin post, most are aware of what’s transpired since Larkin’s trade request became public (allegedly, it’s been in the works since season exit meetings). Initial word was that Larkin had identified three teams: Florida, Minnesota and Vegas.
There have been vague reports that Detroit had asked for some additional destinations, given that those three teams are already in win-now mode and have little of interest to give up, and it sounded like Larkin added a few more teams. Ultimately, he still has to sign off on a trade when agreed to, but more teams thinking they’re in the mix should help drive up the price. Some of the destinations rumored but unconfirmed are Utah – ideal, given their prospect war chest, but a little strange to think of them as a true contender at this point – and Dallas, which might be the leader if you believe Nick Kypreos. They’re a little lacking in the future assets department, but it could work out for Detroit if they’re taking an NHL player or two in return, and especially if that includes former Northville resident Jason Robertson, who is looking expensive to keep even before a potential Larkin deal.
Many have also reported that Yzerman has no issue taking this into the season, but that also doesn’t feel like much insight beyond betting that a notoriously patient GM will exercise patience for a trade of such immense magnitude. Larkin has the control of a no-trade clause, but Yzerman’s control is being undersold here – Larkin is under contract for five more seasons. Obviously, we’re speculating on ugly extreme cases here, but most of these recent (primarily American) trade demands have been able to use the threat of impending free agency in a way that this situation cannot, given that Larkin – fairly recently! – committed to Detroit for eight years.
So, what’s happened since? It’s slightly better for the Larkin derby that Carolina beat Vegas. The Knights have already said “no thanks” to the coach who spurred their incredible run from a fringe playoff team to a near championship, releasing interim bench boss John Tortorella in favor of their AHL coach (and long-time Kelly McCrimmon associate) Ryan Craig. Win or lose, their history suggested they would chase any player who would upgrade their lineup, but you have to assume that they are more willing to shake up a team that fell short (notably, Vegas won two fewer games during the regular season than the Red Wings did).
The most interesting part of the weekend actually occurred on Sunday morning, when Seattle – a team flush with one-dimensional wingers – added another one-dimensional winger by shipping this weekend’s 25th overall pick and a second-rounder to Florida for Mackie Samoskevich. Some antennas went up in the hope that it might be a precursor to the Panthers flipping some assets to Detroit for Larkin, but it was instead the solution to the long-expected move that Brady Tkachuk, who insisted for years that he had no desire to leave Ottawa, cashed in on a quiet trade demand to leave Canada and join his brother in South Florida.
And, hoo boy. Red Wings fans aren’t exactly in a position to gloat, but at least it’s the first time this has happened to us. Ottawa fans were dunking all over the internet when the Larkin news dropped, completely unaware they were in the exact same boat, and Tkachuk is the latest in a long line of very good players who couldn’t wait to get out of Kanata. This, despite his team going on a miracle run into the postseason, on a young team riddled with injuries, being repeatedly dishonest about his desire to stay while quietly orchestrating his exit. As stunning as it was to learn the Larkin news, it would have been an extra gut punch had Detroit gone on the late-season heater that the Senators did (or Montreal, or Philly, etc). I’m sure Ottawa will be trying to move its draft picks for win-now talent, but it’s a tough blow to a dressing room to feel like they’re only a few pieces away, and they’re getting draft picks with the years 2029 and 2030 on them in exchange for their captain, who is in his prime.
Long story short, there’s virtually no way Florida is still in the Larkin sweepstakes given the ransom for Brady. I still think it’s easiest to get this deal done before free agency, but the lack of big-ticket items in free agency should lead to fewer teams running right against the cap, should the sweepstakes continue past the end of next week. If I had to take a random swing, I’ll say this ends up being Minnesota but with a third team involved to help sweeten the pot for Detroit. And I wouldn’t be surprised to see a subsequent secondary move in the immediate aftermath as the Red Wings orchestrate life post-71.
Draft Week
A draft preview is a little tough to pull together at the moment, given the chances that Detroit nets a 2026 first-round pick if they can pull off a Larkin trade in time. I don’t really think teams should draft for need – especially outside the first round – but it would be nice to see a few bigger swings at high-end skill to bolster the 5-on-5 scoring that was well-cited as an issue down the stretch. Truthfully, those players are few and far between, as anyone with that ability who slips out of the first round typically has some sort of significant flaw to work past. Hopefully, some of the kids knocking on the door will be able to find their way offensively as soon as next season, but once we get to the longshots rounds, you may as well be focusing on the guys who are the most capable with the puck.
So I’ll throw out a few scenarios here, just in case. Should Detroit end up with a pick in the top of half of the first round, I’d look heavily at:
Tynan Lawrence – Seems like he’ll be the second center off the board behind Caleb Malhotra (who may go anywhere from 2-5), so given the impending Larkin departure, Lawrence would be the best bet for a franchise center in this range. Worth noting that he was trending toward the top five himself until he left USHL Muskegon for Boston University midseason, where the offense didn’t immediately translate (two goals in 18 games). That’s a difficult, and very uncommon, in-season transition, so the hope in drafting him is that he regains his offensive confidence having had a brief taste of the college level.
Wyatt Cullen – It was a tough year for the U.S. National Team Development Program in Plymouth, but Cullen stood out as the most skilled of the lot and is generally being ranked around 8-15 (seems like a riser of late). He had a late growth spurt, so the thought is that an already-talented player could find another gear as he finds his legs physically.
Ethan Belchetz – One of the unicorns of this year’s draft class, cut short due to injury. 6’5”, 228 pounds and with the high skill level of a smaller player. Not the center the franchise is looking to fill long-term, but skilled and mean players are at a premium in this league. He played for Windsor and is committed to Michigan State.
If they land a pick later in the first round, some high-skill options include (I swear all these local connections are coincidental):
JP Hurlbert – Bolstered his draft stock following a controversial departure from the U.S. NTDP to Kamloops of the WHL, where he finished 4th in points. Sub 6-foot, but he’s a dynamic playmaker with the puck. Should be part of Michigan’s incoming freshman class this fall.
Nikita Klepov – The OHL’s leading scorer after coming over from the USHL, really carried play for Saginaw Spirit, who were reeling from some high-profile pro departures in Michael Misa and Zayne Parekh, among others. I see Hurlbert as more of a playmaker while Klepov is more of a scorer. Also a Michigan State commit.
Liam Ruck – Here’s proof I’ve not solely focused on players with local connections. Ruck is a cool story as he and his twin brother, Markus, finished 1-2 in WHL scoring for Medicine Hat. Liam is the consensus higher-ranked prospect due to his goal-scoring ability (45 goals to his brother’s 21). It might be difficult to pull off, but Liam is generally ranked in the mid-to-late 20s, with Markus anywhere from an early 2nd to a mid-3rd, as I’ve heard there are some injury concerns, but the prospect of adding some Western Canadian-brand Sedin twins will clearly be enticing to anyone. The Rucks will return to Medicine Hat before heading to North Dakota for 2027-28, as they’ll both need time to bulk up for pro hockey.
As mentioned, Detroit will likely see all of those players off the board by the time its first pick comes up, but certainly, fans will be scrambling to learn names if a trade is made before Friday night’s first round. Currently, the Red Wings hold picks 47, 79, 143, 175, 196 and 207. Their first rounder belongs to St. Louis via the Justin Faulk trade, and their fourth went to Anaheim in the John Gibson deal (they also traded a previously-acquired fourth for David Perron). They picked up an additional seventh by trading out of the seventh round last year to pick up Calgary’s this year.
I’m sure we’ll have much more to come as the NHL offseason ramps up this week; at the very least, we’ll have draft-day coverage and hopefully some semblance of a free agency preview, if anyone enticing is left by the time the calendar rolls over to July. In the meantime, enjoy your summers and keep those phone notifications on.
