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Which Free Agents Will Be Back with Detroit in 2024-25?

Credit: Brian Bradshaw Sevald-USA TODAY Sports

I’m not sure about you, but it’s felt like a weird start to the Red Wings offseason to me. When I last wrote, Detroit was days removed from having missed the playoffs by the thinnest of margins. In recent years, by mid-April I’d already assembled multiple CapFriendly (RIP soon) roster projections for the following season.

The relative dominance of the top-seeded teams this playoff did demonstrate that the Red Wings may still be a decent ways away from contention, though I maintain they would have fared better in the first round than the Washington Capitals did.

In either event, we’re quickly approaching the newsiest portion of the offseason, so it seems like a good time to take stock of where the Red Wings sit in a few areas. Today: pending free agents. Edmonton extended the Stanley Cup Final by winning on Tuesday night — and with Game 6 slated for early August and Game 7 for mid-February (seriously: who made this schedule?), free agency is right around the corner.

Let’s look at each of Detroit’s free agents — and we’re going deep here, with every expiring contract in the organization — and take some guesses at each player’s chances of re-signing with the Red Wings stands. Obviously, as we hurdle towards July 1, the pending UFAs odds might tick down with each passing day, but negotiations that have likely been going for months will be forced to a crossroads over the next two weeks. We’re likely to hear much more news on the pending free agents in the near future, and even those who reach the open market will still have a shot at returning to Detroit.

Based on the limited intel we do have, here’s my take on how likely they are to return at this point.

Moritz Seider – 99.9%
Lucas Raymond – 99.9%

These are the only two players who will be listed together; they’re collectively this offseason’s top priority. The .1% serves as a disclaimer to never assume anything with Steve Yzerman, who traded Jonathan Drouin (coming off his ELC) to Montreal for Mikhail Sergachev (and a 2nd) in 2017.

I don’t have any reason to think anything similar will happen. In fact, I can’t think of any comparable trade since: an exchange of two players who were considered among the best prospects in hockey, and I consider Raymond and Seider to be a cut above both of them. It worked out great for Tampa, though Drouin had a nice bounceback for himself in Colorado this year. Long story short: it’s just a matter of time until both are re-signed, and anything less would be a stunner that would steal every hockey media headline this summer.

Albert Johansson – 95%

UPDATE: I wrote this just before Johansson signed a one-year contract extension. Given that it should surprise nobody, I’ll leave him in just to mark where things stand.

Another easy one: on cleanout day, Yzerman cited Johansson as a player who is out of waiver options and will be given every chance to win a roster spot this fall. He’s a 2019 draft pick who has yet to play an NHL game, so I imagine the Red Wings will finally want to let Johansson prove himself, and he’ll certainly come cheap.

It does seem like he’ll have to work his way out of a roster spot at this point, as his play in Grand Rapids down the stretch and into the AHL postseason was very strong. His only threat is probably just forces beyond his control, as Detroit returns quite a few NHL defensemen (including Simon Edvinsson), but can probably list defense as the biggest area of need this summer. Johansson will be back, but I can see a world where he has a strong camp and still starts as a 7th or 8th defenseman. That’s a good problem to have, though, and given the Red Wings’ needs at the position, he’ll have an opportunity.

Joe Veleno – 90%

Much like the three names above (and the one below), Veleno is a restricted free agent which, as many of you know, means he cannot sign with another team as long as Detroit chooses to give him a qualifying offer. And there’s really no reason to believe that the Red Wings have interest in moving on from Veleno, who should be had back for cheap and has proved to be a useful utility piece so far in his NHL career.

The challenge for both parties in this situation is how much further Veleno can go. From every indication, Detroit is still pretty high on the player. While he’s proven to be a pretty effective down-the-lineup player, he’s also had a few opportunities in the top six which have not returned much, yet. At 24, the window is starting to shrink, but for the money he’s likely to command, it’s a no-brainer to bring him back and utilize him in a similar role. He’s likely to continue getting more effective in a checking role, and the door isn’t completely shut on some added offensive ability, either.

Jonatan Berggren – 90%

Berggren is another near-lock to re-sign, with the only hesitations coming from outside noise that he could be an enticing trade chip. I’m not as convinced as others that there’s friction between the two parties, though I’m sure Berggren wasn’t thrilled to see so much AHL time after a decent rookie season in 2021-22. It could have simply been a challenge for Berggren to play with a little more fire and assertiveness in the AHL, and anyone who saw him late in the year or in the playoffs would be hard-pressed to say he hadn’t accomplished just that.

I have no doubt he’ll be in the NHL, so the 90% designation only comes from the potential that he’d be moved elsewhere before he re-signs. Given the number of NHL wingers Detroit could potentially lose to unrestricted free agency, they’d be well-served to make room for Berggren as a player who could ultimately contribute in the top-six on an affordable contract.

Christian Fischer – 70%

We’re moving into the unrestricted free agents now, and I have Fischer tabbed as the most likely to return. WIIM writers battled — brutally — behind the scenes as to who the President of the Christian Fischer Fan Club was, which I ultimately ceded to EmergencyBackupCoach. As someone who spent more than a decade working around professional hockey teams, I’m a believer in the value that players like Fischer can bring.

He didn’t have his best statistical year, but it was apparent that he had a presence in the dressing room. Fischer had a noticeable uptick in his on-ice play late in the year after a quiet start, with a couple of clutch goals on top of meaningful penalty kill minutes and general versatility in the bottom-six. Ultimately, Fischer didn’t drastically increase his price tag, but I’m comfortable with the Red Wings giving him an extra year or two to fill a fourth-line role and provide energy around the team that others can feed off of.

David Perron – 60%

Perron said all the right things in his end-of-season media availability, so I’d love to list him higher, but ultimately we’re two weeks away from the open market, so I’m not ruling anything out. I think Perron has been a great fit in Detroit, and like Fischer above, has been a culture fit and a leader, on top of production that could be difficult to replace for much cheaper.

What’s working against him is that he’s 36 years old and coming off a two-year deal where his first year was a bit better than his second. As a veteran with a ton of respect around the league, he’s in that position where he needs to decide between a two-or-three year deal on decent money to wind down his career or a one-or-two year deal for less to chase a Stanley Cup.

He did win one in St. Louis in 2019, and there has to be a romantic draw of ending his career there — or Montreal, his hometown. But Perron is well-traveled, and Detroit has been among his most productive destinations even late in his career. I place the odds of him returning at better than a coinflip, but without knowing his true priorities (or Detroit’s short-term plan on the wing) it’s difficult to assess right now.

Patrick Kane – 40%

Unlike Perron above, who spoke glowingly about returning to Detroit, most Red Wings fans noted that Kane also spoke complimentary about Detroit — but continually referred to them in the past tense, as if he expected his time in the organization was over.

I originally had my odds of Kane’s return a bit lower, but I’m still holding out that it was a little bit of gamesmanship on his part and that there would be mutual interest in a return. Notably, Blackhawks GM Kyle Davidson recently poured cold water on rumors that Kane might want to finish his career in Chicago next to Connor Bedard, which I had considered the top threat to his return to the Red Wings.

But where else is he going to go? When you’ve already won multiple Cups, it’s not like he’s a player who will be chasing another on a league-minimum deal. It appears that he wants decent money and some term, which I think Detroit can offer, to a point. The main threats I see outside of Chicago are Buffalo — his hometown, but a place I don’t consider to be on a significantly better track than the Red Wings — or Toronto, who are closer to contention (and to Buffalo), but they may be working through some bigger changes (like dealing Mitch Marner) before they have an idea for how much room they have for free agents. Maybe another contender enters the fray, as I don’t think he’ll be short on offers based on what he showed coming off major surgery.

Austin Czarnik – 35%

We’re starting to get pretty low on the depth chart, and Czarnik has filled the role that many journeymen before him have as a veteran who spends about half his season with the Griffins and half with the Red Wings. Ultimately, after the team moved on from Klim Kostin, Czarnik assumed a regular fourth-line role, but he didn’t produce much offensively on top of a few mistakes that anyone in a depth role would not want to make.

Nobody should ever blame a tweener forward for its team’s shortcomings, but I don’t find it very likely that Detroit will utilize Czarnik in the same role next year. Part of his appeal was that they do not have many natural centers, and Marco Kasper and Nate Danielson will be inching their way to filling the gaps in the depth chart as early as this fall. Having good AHL veterans is important, to help win in that league as well as for injury depth with the NHL team, so maybe that’s all he’ll need to re-up with the organization.

James Reimer – 30%

It’s difficult to gauge what Detroit’s plan in net is, as they’ve carried three goaltenders for the bulk of the last two seasons, but they haven’t committed to that being the plan for 2024-25. Ville Husso is probably the team’s biggest question mark, as he was limited to 19 games last year and suffered setbacks in two attempts to return from injury. Alex Lyon was excellent for the team for most of the season but seemed to wear down as his games played approached figures he’d not seen in his professional career.

Only the Red Wings will have injury data and specifics to know how much Husso can be counted on next year. It seems possible that they may want to sign a third NHL-caliber goaltender. With the likes of Juuse Saros, Jacob Markstrom and John Gibson rumored to be available, they could be in the mix for a borderline-elite level goaltender to pave the path for Sebastian Cossa or Trey Augustine to take over when they are ready.

Or, if they have faith in Husso’s health and Lyon as a spot starter/capable backup, they may want to keep a third affordable and proven goaltender on hand for when they need him. Reimer did not win over many fans with his off-ice beliefs or early-season efforts, but he did come through with a few strong performances down the stretch. I find it doubtful that Reimer will be back, but given the weak upcoming free-agent class, he can’t be ruled out.

Shayne Gostisbehere – 25%

It hurts to list this player at this percentage, as I think I may even be coming in a little high. I’ve seen Gostisbehere as a player at a crossroads: one who is not as useful to a contender (see his time in Carolina) as he is to a team on the bubble (like his time in Arizona or Detroit). That means he needs to decide between meaningful minutes on a team that may be out of the playoff picture or a lesser role to chase a championship.

I’m of the opinion that Detroit is a great fit for a player like this: there is enough talent to shelter him defensively but he is a go-to option on the powerplay or when the team needs a goal. But I can’t imagine him making much more than the $4.125 million that Detroit paid him this past season given the other players I’m sure they’d like to bring back. He strikes me as a player who becomes more likely to return if he’s still available after the initial wave of free agency.

Daniel Sprong – 20%

I was a big fan of the Sprong signing, a big fan of his early-season production, and a believer on taking a chance on an all-offense player in your bottom-six to compliment the checkers and penalty killers. Early in the year, Sprong appeared to be that perfect fit, but the coaches seemed to lose faith in him late in the year, so I find it pretty unlikely he’ll be back.

Ultimately, he had a similar year to the season he had with Seattle in 2022-23 that led him to be an intriguing free agent pick-up in the first place. That makes his impending free agency all the more interesting: he proved he is capable of producing, but he also proved that he can only be trusted situationally. I’d love if Detroit brought him back for cheap, but much like Gostisbehere above, he might be a player tempted by a bigger role with a less talented team.

Zach Aston-Reese – 20%

From this point on, we’re away from full-time NHLers and onto call-ups or full-time minor leaguers. But Aston-Reese was an interesting case as he wasn’t even with Detroit during training camp, but parlayed a PTO with the Hurricanes into a one-year deal with Detroit. He saw three NHL games, but ultimately saw the most AHL time he’s ever seen in his seven professional seasons.

That makes it unlikely that he’ll return, as he’s generally regarded as more of an NHL asset who has proven himself as a worthwhile depth option across the league. Despite modest production, he was one of the better veterans for Grand Rapids’ playoff run. I’d imagine he’ll be in a similar boat this fall instead of falling back on another offer from Detroit which would likely land him in Grand Rapids full-time.

Taro Hirose – 20%

As a regular viewer of Big Ten hockey and of the Griffins, I’ve seen a lot of Taro Hirose. He has all the makings of a top AHL producer but hasn’t quite been able to get there. Red Wings fans know him well as a Michigan State grad who stepped directly into the NHL after signing as a free agent, but he wasn’t able to translate his cerebral game into a full-time role.

I’ve appreciated him as someone who’s chosen to stick with the organization over multiple contracts instead of chasing bigger bucks around the AHL or Europe, but I’m wondering if this summer might spell the end of that relationship. His production took a bit of a step back, but given the uncertain status of many of the others near the bottom of this list, Detroit will still need some capable AHL scorers if they want to make a playoff run. I’d love for Hirose to return, but the lack of recent NHL action might pave the way for him to look at other opportunities.

Michael Hutchinson – 20%

Many might forget that Hutchinson did see NHL action this season when Detroit had several injuries in net, and needed to sign the journeyman to an NHL deal to handle a start. He did fine, but lost, and ultimately conceded the bulk of starts in Grand Rapids to Sebastian Cossa, who built on a strong first-year pro with Toledo to take the reigns with the Griffins by the end of the 2023-24 season.

Hutchinson is unlikely to return given that all signals are that Cossa will be relied on heavily by the Griffins next season. However, Hutchinson was a late add to Grand Rapids’ picture to begin with, as the (rightful) hesitance to send Alex Lyon to Grand Rapids meant there was no veteran option for them to pair with Cossa. This summer, Red Wings will need to decide whether they prefer a veteran to back him up or ride with Carter Gylander, fresh out of college, or Jan Bednar, an AHL-contracted goaltender who had ups-and-down as a rookie with Toledo. I’d wager they’ll sign a veteran, but Hutchinson might seek a better opportunity.

Matt Luff – 15%

We’re getting to some obscure names now and Luff, a proven top AHL producer, is likely looking to forget his time with the Red Wings organization. His two years with Detroit has been marred by injuries — suffering a shot to the face immediately followed by a hit-from-behind courtesy of Juraj Slavkovsky while briefly with Detroit during the 2022-23 season, then seeing his 2023-24 debut delayed by an injury suffered during training camp.

It’s definitely been a cursed run for a player who has otherwise been a proven AAAA tweener (too good for the AHL, not quite there for the NHL). I wouldn’t hate Detroit bringing him back for another stint in Grand Rapids, but I can’t imagine that would be his first choice given that he’s been limited to 73 games in two seasons with the organization.

Wyatt Newpower – 15%

If you’re still awake here, you can enjoy my analysis of late-season Griffins action. Newpower’s third year in the organization was his least-utilized one, though he did re-emerge in the postseason as the Griffins looked for more physicality and defensive play.

I find it unlikely that he’ll be back, though there is always a home for physical, defense-first defensemen in the system. Newpower will likely find a larger role elsewhere in the AHL or in Europe.


Jared McIsaac – 5%

It’s been a disappointing run for McIsaac, who was originally seen as a steal when Detroit took him 36th overall in 2018 . He battled several injuries to work his way to becoming an every-day AHL defenseman, but lost favor with the new Grand Rapids’ coaching regime in 2022-23. After a long period out of the lineup, the organization loaned him to Switzerland briefly before they were able to find an AHL home for him, sending him to the Providence Bruins in exchange for Curtis Hall being assigned to the Griffins (though their NHL rights stayed put).

Unlike many of the names above, McIsaac is a restricted free agent. However, it seems unlikely the team will give him a qualifying offer. Given his pedigree, he’ll likely earn a two-way NHL deal elsewhere, but with the likes of William Wallinder, Shai Buium and Antti Tuomisto slated for Grand Rapids this season and Axel Sandin-Pelikka and Andrew Gibson on the horizon, the organization may not be too badly burned by the missed draft pick.

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