As the calendar flips into another playoffless May this week for the Red Wings, we don’t have any breaking news, or much on the immediate horizon, for that matter. But we do have plenty to talk about stemming from the Red Wings’ locker cleanout media availabilities, as well as the first round of the NHL playoffs.
Let’s get started. And if there are intriguing matters not covered here, drop them in the comments. Maybe we can roll out a mailbag-type article or two while we await the busy season for player movement and team shakeups. Here’s just a little bit of what’s on my mind:
Ottawa and Boston’s Rewards
There’s no sugarcoating what a disaster the end of the season was for the Red Wings. For all the work teams did battling for the Wild Card positions and all the daily shuffling going on, the winners of that race are… not enjoying the spoils of victory.
Ottawa became the first team eliminated in a sweep at the hands of Carolina, tying the Red Wings in postseason victories for the season (0). If you’re able to distract yourself from Detroit’s own foibles, Senators Cope is really at another level right now, mixed between wanting to trade everyone (sound familiar?) and assuring the world that this was the closest first-round series of all-time. Most games were decided by a goal (and empty netters), but to me, it’s not a series if your opponent doesn’t have to adjust to your game plan. Carolina did Carolina things, allowed only five goals in four games, withstood tantrums from Brady Tkachuk, Ridly Greig and others, and moved on with ease.
Meanwhile, the Bruins are still alive but were run out of their own building by the Buffalo Sabres on Sunday, who roared out to a 4-0 lead (and boy, some of those goals came from brutal turnovers) en route to a 6-1 victory and 3-1 series lead. Boston did win a game, but that loss, coupled with a Game 1 collapse that saw them snatch defeat from the jaws of victory, and the goodwill the Bruins gained by being one of the East’s surprise teams is evaporating.
So my unanswerable question is this: would you really feel better about Detroit’s season if this were the result? An extra week of cardio and sent home quickly by Carolina, or being booed out of your own building by your home crowd, with your goalie screaming at his own bench when he was finally mercy-pulled?
There’s a lot of gray in potential answers, and different matchups would produce different results and all that — plus an inexperienced Buffalo still has to close Boston out. So while I’m irked that Detroit now owns the longest postseason drought in the NHL, I’m not sure their fate would be all that different with how they played from the Olympic break on. I think there’s been too much focus on the bar for success just being “making playoffs.” They need to become the Carolinas and the Tampa Bays that are in year after year, and just getting in this season only to be immediately humbled would not move the needle much for me.
Summer’s marching orders
If you haven’t watched Steve Yzerman and Todd McLellan’s end-of-season press conference, it’s worth a listen. I felt a different tone this year, and I think it painted a better picture of what the team will be trying to do this summer. Typically, these things are full of generalities — “we need to improve in all areas,” “we need better players,” etc., there were two immediate focuses on 1) improving 5-on-5 scoring and 2) becoming harder to play against in the bottom six.
While no GM is going to lay out specifics for how they plan to approach the offseason, it’s pretty clear to me when looking at this summer’s free agent crop that 5-on-5 scoring can only be improved through trade. It’s a mix of old players who are probably returning to their own teams or retiring, more middle-six types that Detroit already has (including some they’ve already had), and a soon-to-be extremely rich (and already playing for his hometown team) Alex Tuch.
The Red Wings are asset-rich right now and have a lot of cap flexibility. I know there’s a healthy contingent of fans who wanted to see heads roll, but that doesn’t change the logical path forward for whoever’s at the helm. As long as the cap continues to rise drastically year-over-year, it’s going to water down the free agent market. Fans are tired of hearing it, but the best way to improve the roster is through player development, so you 1) can put better players on your roster and 2) have players enticing enough that other teams want to trade for them.
It’s a slow process, and not every player pans out. Detroit gets blasted for its patient approach, but I think that’s old news. Remember that three 20-year-olds made this roster on opening night. Unless your name is Macklin Celebrini or Matthew Schaefer, you’re generally not turning a franchise’s fortunes around at that age. Each of the young Red Wings hit a wall at different points, but they should all be primed for a step forward next season.
Remaking the bottom six will require some creativity, as many are still under contract. But the Red Wings can look into a buyout, or moving a contracted player with a mid-round pick as a sweetener if needed. Plus, any top-six adds would push players like Emmitt Finnie and Andrew Copp down to the bottom six, where they’ll get more favorable matchups. As we see some Stanley Cup hopefuls exit the playoffs, we’ll have a better idea of other teams looking for a shakeup, as they’ll run into the same issue of free agency not being enough to solve their problems.
Take the leap
No Red Wing should be sitting at home right now, satisfied with everything they accomplished this season, though DeBrincat and Seider are the closest to deserving. McLellan had an interesting remark about Raymond, while confirming the long-standing rumors that he was not 100%. He said there is a “gulf” between being banged up and being hurt. He indicated they’re going to focus on getting Raymond to shoot more, as 100 more shots at his shooting percentage would make him a 40-goal scorer.
I’ve mentioned this before, but let’s look at a quick comparison of a few players over their first 4-5 years:
Player A had 303 points in his first 320 games (0.94 points-per-game)
Player B had 234 points in his first 285 games (0.82 points-per-game)
Player C had 320 points in his first 400 games (0.80 points-per-game)
Player A is David Pastrnak, Player B is Nikita Kucherov, and Player C is Lucas Raymond. Raymond’s analytics were right up there at superstar level for much of the season before the production started leveling off as Detroit’s top line struggled to score at 5-on-5 down the stretch. But his production is not unlike what the two best wingers in the NHL were doing at the same age.
Some additional context: Pastrnak was 18 as a rookie and his fifth season was his first above a point-per-game, with 81 in 66 games in 2018-19. He followed that up with a 95-point season at age 23, but then leveled out with two point-per-game years before rattling off four-straight 100-point seasons.
Kucherov didn’t debut until he was 20, posted his first season above a point-per-game at 23 and then broke out at 24, with the first of what’s now six 100+ point years, only slowed during three years in which he battled injuries.
This was Raymond’s fifth year and his age-23 season, and he came just short of a point-per-game last year (80 in 82) and this year (76 in 80). Certainly, if the coaches can get him to shoot more, he’s going to command the puck more. If he’s commanding the puck more, another level of production is attainable.
It’s a lofty comparison. One additional detail is that Pastrnak and Kucherov walked onto teams that were already in a contention window. Pastrnak’s Bruins had prime Bergeron, Marchand, Krug, Krejci and Rask, not to mention the ageless Chara. The Lightning made the Stanley Cup Final in Kucherov’s second year, led by Stamkos, Johnson, Palat, Callahan, Killorn and Hedman — Vasilevskiy wasn’t even the starter, backing up Ben Bishop (they also had Evgeni Nabokov, a fact you cannot convince me is true).
Raymond… did not enjoy the comforts of a similar supporting cast. He’s arguably not even had a suitable winger to play across from since Tyler Bertuzzi left. I mean no disrespect to Emmitt Finnie, because he’s well on his way to becoming one of my favorites, but this was a 20-year-old seventh-round pick who was competing with the likes of James van Riemsdyk and Elmer Soderblom for this role during training camp. It’s been an open question for far too long.
A second-line center upgrade would be huge, but I think the biggest splash Detroit can make is finding a proven option for first-line left wing — the caveat being DeBrincat is more than capable here, but has a good thing going on with Kane. I know some folks are over the Kane project, but a team lacking 5-on-5 scoring probably can’t afford to ditch one of its only players who scores at 5-on-5.
Even with the rotating cast at left wing, Larkin and Raymond have long stretches where they’re as productive as anyone in the league. But it’s time to make that easier, give them a guy who can hang on to the puck a more, make plays, attract defensive attention, do more than crash the crease and grind on the forecheck. An established 30-goal scorer in that slot not only adds needed offense to the roster, but it could unlock the no-doubt superstar Detroit has been waiting on. But also… shoot the puck, Lucas.
It’s Griffins Time
Last note: the Grand Rapids Griffins finally begin the postseason this week, as they’d earned a bye through the convoluted “first round” the AHL currently uses. They begin their best-of-five series against the Manitoba Moose in Winnipeg this weekend, electing to play the first two games on the road (May 2-3) so they can have Games 3-5 at home (May 6, 8 and 9). The Griffins had the luxury of auditioning some new prospects who joined the team after their college or European seasons ended, but I think their lineup will be most similar to their second-to-last game of the season (a casual 8-0 win in Milwaukee).
Leonard – Dries – Shine
Mazur – Lombardi – Brandsegg-Nygard
Tralmaks – Stachowiak – Rychlovsky
Genborg – Seger – Watson
(Extras: Becher, Angle, Kiiskinen, James, Draper, Doucet)
Save for Mazur’s injury and Shine’s time in Detroit, that top six has been together for most of the season, so the all-prospect second line is the most interesting for Red Wings purposes. Not as much name recognition on the third line, but it’s actually been the team’s most productive since they acquired Wojciech Stachowiak from Tampa Bay (15 points in 10 games for him). Plenty of options for that 4th line, but it’d be a nice reward for Genborg — the youngest on the roster — to stay in the lineup. He’s made an immediate impact on a very deep roster since coming over from Sweden. Unfortunately, Yzerman’s presser comments make it sound like Danielson will only be available if the Griffins make a deep run.
Gustafsson – Tuomisto
Lagesson – Sandin-Pellikka
Wallinder – Johansson
(Extras: Buium, Kannok Leipert)
Not sure if this is how they’ll go here, as it seems crazy for Buium to be out of the lineup. But Anton Johansson has looked like a find, and has been immediately productive — plus he evens out the left-right shot balance. This has been the strength of the team all season, with so many NHL-experienced options alongside some prospects already established in the league, and that’s even after shipping out Justin Holl (make your jokes, but he was excellent at this level) and Ian Mitchell in trades.
Cossa
Postava
(Extra: Augustine)
This will be the most interesting decision for the team. Goaltending was a non-issue all season — they even won the AHL equivalent of the Jennings Trophy, setting a franchise record for fewest goals against and tying for most shutouts. It was mostly Cossa’s net, with Postava missing a chunk of the year due to injury, and Carter Gylander playing well in time up from the ECHL. But Cossa was shakier down the stretch, and Postava started playing his best hockey and looking like a real option for the Red Wings in the near future. If they ride the hot hand, they should start Postava. I think the investment in Cossa will win out and he’ll ultimately get the nod — but in a best-of-five, there’s no time to wait for someone to shake a slump. Certainly a storyline for next year’s Red Wings team with the backup goaltending job open.
Those are the main ideas kicking around my head as we approach two weeks without Red Wings hockey. Where am I right, where am I wrong? What else can we explore here as we begin the march towards 2026-27?
