Morning Skate: Red Wings vs Rangers

Line Matchups

Let’s take a look at how the expected lines match up against each other.

Based on these lines, the Rangers have a little less depth scoring than the Wings do, with their top line of Nash, Brassard, and Zuccarelly accounting for 31.6% of the total goals the Rangers have scored this season (196). Datsyuk’s like as currently composed, accounts for 27.2% of the Wings total goals this season(180), and had Jurco been playing on a scoring line, he’d have more goals and that number would be a little higher. A higher percentage of the Wings goals have been scored by the 2nd, 3rd, and yes, even 4th lines, however the Rangers have had more goals from their defense. Goal wise, Brassard’s line has outscored Datsyuk’s line by 13, the highest goal differential among the forward lines, and the Staal – Boyle pairing has outscored the DeKeyser – Quincey pairing by 8, the highest differential among defensive match ups. There are of course a lot of factors this chart doesn’t take into account, but it’s interesting to see how the expected lines compare.

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Next we have a nifty gauge comparison of each line’s average Corsi for % at only even strength, and only when the game it tied, in order to avoid score affects. Theoretically, the Wings have the advantage on their top three lines. The Miller – Andersson – Glendening line is…… Woof.

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Ok, now for the defensemen. This graph is taken from Waronice.com and it’s awesome. All stats are at even strength.

Based on the competition level they face, and how they fare against it, Kronwall – Ericsson actually match up pretty well against McDonagh – Girardi. They both face the toughest opposing competition, get the toughest zone starts, and have similar Corsi ratings. DeKeyser – Quincey have both been used in much tougher situations than Boyle, and simmilar situations to Staal, but both Wings defensemen make more things happen towards the other team’s net. Here’s why I was never as high as many people on Keith Yandle as a #1/#2 defenseman. That nice dark blue color means he has good possession and Corsi ratings, however, he gets more zone starts in the offensive zone than Kronwall, Ericsson, DeKeyser, Quincey, and Smith, faces lower competition than Kronwall, Ericsson, DeKeyser, and Quincey. He does very well against lower competition and in offensive situations. He’s a good defenseman, but not someone I would have wanted the Wings to give up a lot for, since he’s more of a 2nd pairing guy. Marek Zidlicky isn’t on the chart, but his bubble is about the same color as Xavier Ouellet’s, he has similar zone starts to Kevin Klein, and slightly more offensive zone starts that Ouellet.

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Here’s a neat graph I find interesting. Below are the individual game save % for each expected starting goaltender. The further towards the outside of the circle the line is, the higher the save percentage. One of the first things that jumped out to me is that outside of 3 games, Jimmy Howard has been very consistently good. Game #14 with the big dip was against the Canadiens on Nov. 16th where we lost 4-1, and game #32 is when Jimmy tore his groin just 2 minutes into the game and saved 2 of 3 shots. Now compare to Talbot’s graph and he’s all over the place. I’ve looked at several NHL goalies so far in this type of graph, and Jimmy is always more consistent.

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