Today, we’re taking a look at the Buffalo Sabres’ and Calgary Flames’ rosters with an eye toward Expansion Draft protections. If you missed the previous installment, you can find it here covering the Arizona Coyotes and Boston Bruins. For those of you playing along at home, another shout-out to the great Expansion Draft Tool that’s been put together at Capfriendly.com.
One More Thing Before We Start…
We’ve fielded a few questions about eligibility over our first week of these posts, and now is as good a time as any to quickly touch on what that means for Vegas and the 30 squads being forced to surrender a player. 2 years (seasons) of ‘professional experience’ are required for a player to be considered eligible for the Expansion Draft – so, someone like Dylan Larkin will be fully exempt from the draft and will not need to be protected. Both Peter and JJ have already touched on how the term ‘professional experience’ is being defined for the purpose of this draft, specifically how it relates to Anthony Mantha’s eligibility, and their posts can be found by going here.
A decent rule of thumb, though, is that a player is going to be eligible for the draft if they are in their 3rd year of playing in the AHL, NHL, or any combination of the two leagues and are signed to an NHL contract. It’s not 100% accurate, as Peter and JJ explain, plus there are exceptions for players like Johan Franzen with serious long-term injuries, but looking just at guys in their 3rd year and beyond will get you where you’re going most of the time. Again, I can’t stress enough that you should use the Capfriendly tool because they have already taken the time to sort all the eligibility concerns out for you.
Buffalo Sabres
SBN Blog: Die By The Blade
Daily Faceoff Current Lines: Here
Our Projected Protection Choice: 7 Forwards, 3 Defense, 1 Goalie
Forwards
Let’s get the easy ones out of the way first – Kyle Okposo has a No Movement Clause, and we have zero expectation for Buffalo to ask him to waive that so he can go to Vegas for free. If by some odd chance Okposo does move to another team, it’ll be by trade and not by the Expansion Draft. He’s protected and will stay protected. Ryan O’Reilly also has no chance of being exposed.
Now, we get into interesting territory. With Sam Reinhart and Jack Eichel exempt, Buffalo has the chance to secure some of the depth positions on their roster. Our choices are currently Tyler Ennis, Evander Kane, Marcus Foligno, Zemgus Girgensons, and Johan Larsson to round out the Sabres’ forward crew.
Ennis has had a rough go of it the past two seasons. Currently sidelined since early November, and struggling to produce heading into his missed time, he also missed significant time last season as he was limited to just 23 games. Tossing the injury issue to the side for a moment, it’s not like the guy can’t be productive – he had back-to-back 40+ point seasons heading into his shortened 2015-2016 campaign. At 27 years old, he still has the chance to bounce back into the 40-50 point range and be a valuable asset.
Kane has seen his share of hardships, too, although his have mostly been outside the injury department. Coming over from Winnipeg for the 2015-2016 season, he very publicly clashed with fellow Jets players and developed a reputation (whether earned or not) for being a ‘toxic locker-room guy’. The rumors of character issues seem to have come with him to Buffalo, as he continues to find trouble and headlines, but he’s also finding a moderate scoring clip. He’s currently on pace for 41 points, and at age 25 could hit 50 points or more either this year or next. That kind of potential isn’t something you risk losing for free… unless the baggage becomes unbearable.
Getting further down the depth chart, Foligno represents an interesting possibility for the Sabres. Currently slotted in on the top line, the 25 year old left-wing has increased his points output every year but only topped out last season at 23 points. But, value is all relative to each team, and on the Sabres we think that’s enough to earn him a protection spot. Girgensons and Larsson round out the protections, based mostly on age and potential.
You’ll notice we left two fairly high-profile forwards off the protection list – Brian Gionta and Matt Moulson. From a points perspective, they both beat out 5 of the protected names we listed. They have 18 and 17 points, respectively, but are ages 37 and 33 with fairly sizeable contracts. On this team, we think youth and potential win out over guys who are probably in or about to be in the decline of their careers. Gionta’s status as a pending UFA also helps sway protection away from him.
Defense
Rasmus Ristolainen and Jake McCabe are the two easy selections on the blue line. Ristolainen is a defensive stud already, and McCabe is currently slotting in on the top line next to him. Despite a meager 7 points on the year, McCabe represents a lot of potential at just 23 years old.
The third spot is, honestly, going to be a crap-shoot that likely comes down to performance after the All-Star break. We have Zach Bogosian as the 3rd defender protected right now, but that could change easily if he continues his unspectacular points production. Other factors that could weigh in are Cody Franson’s production and the possibility of an extension, how Dmitry Kulikov looks when he returns from injury, if Taylor Fedun gets more playing time and more power-play time, etc. I mean, Peter and I have totally nailed this pick… but just in case we’re wrong, we told you so and are right anyway.
Goalie
There’s no use pretending that Buffalo will protect anyone other than Robin Lehner. Linus Ullmark and Anders Nilsson just don’t move the proverbial needle.
Complications
At the moment, none – the above protection scenario covers all the exposure requirements, so the only complications to arise from this point on will be self-inflicted by the Sabres.
Final Protected List
Forward: Ryan O’Reilly, Kyle Okposo, Evander Kane, Tyler Ennis, Marcus Foligno, Zemgus Girgensons, Johan Larsson
Defense: Rasmus Ristolainen, Jake McCabe, Zach Bogosian
Goalie: Robin Lehner
Calgary Flames
SBN Blog: Matchsticks And Gasoline, their draft assessment here by Samwell9
Daily Faceoff Current Lines: Here
Our Projected Protection Choice: 7 Forwards, 3 Defense, 1 Goalie
Forwards
M&G did a primer on their roster back in early July, and to be honest not much has changed from then. They have Johnny Gaudreau, Sam Bennett, Sean Monahan, Mikael Backlund, and Michael Frolik as locks for protection, and we agree. Performance thus far into the season easily warrants these 5 as protected assets heading into the Expansion Draft.
Troy Brouwer also matches up between our list and theirs, both in terms of needing to be debated and, ultimately, ending up as a protected player. The currently injured Brouwer is a year older and a point less productive (today) than teammate Kris Versteeg, but fills a larger role on the ice with an average TOI just over 17mins/gm compared to Versteeg’s 13:47/gm (per NHL.com). We feel that this, plus Versteeg’s status as a pending UFA, tips Brouwer into the pool of protected players.
For the 7th forward spot, we’re going to pencil in Alex Chiasson. Currently listed on Calgary’s top line, the 26 year old right-wing has never quite hit the mark that was expected of him. Despite that, it’s not like he’s never been productive. A solid 2013-2014 rookie season with the Dallas Stars (35 points in 79 games) has never been successfully followed up on, but playing next to talent like Monahan and Gaudreau could change that. M&G has Micheal Ferland in the 7th protection spot, with less production and TOI than Chiasson. This will likely come down to the wire between the two, but really… who are you going to trust on this – the people who watch this team every day, or Peter and me?
Defense
We selected Mark Giordano, Dougie Hamilton, and TJ Brodie to be protected and don’t think it’s particularly likely that someone other than these 3 gets protected. These guys are the current 1-2-3 in points production for the defense, with a significant drop-off in offensive abilities after current #4 and pending UFA Dennis Wideman. With Wideman, this crew represents the entirety of the top and middle pairings for Calgary’s defense – something that should not be broken up without good reason. M&G agrees with us on these selections. Or we agree with them. Whichever.
Goalie
By the numbers, Chad Johnson has been a significantly better net-minder than Brian Elliott this season. With both goalies pending UFA status this summer, the Flames need to get on with an extension for Johnson soon and then use their goalie protection spot on him. The alternative to either of these gentlemen would be protecting former Red Wing/Griffin Tom McCollum, and that’s just not happening.
Complications
In addition to needing to hash out an extension for Johnson, the Flames also need to get someone on defense extended under this scenario in order to meet exposure requirements. Wideman or Deryk Engelland would work, as both are pending UFAs, or a trade could happen that would bring someone in – although that could cause some mild havoc with the forward group, as Calgary’s defensive corps outside their top-3 isn’t exactly the stuff of legends and any trade could likely involve moving a forward asset. With 2 more games played for Lance Bouma, the forwards will meet their exposure requirements.
Final Protected List
Forward: Johnny Gaudreau, Sam Bennett, Sean Monahan, Mikael Backlund, Michael Frolik, Troy Brouwer, Alex Chiasson
Defense: Mark Giordano, Dougie Hamilton, TJ Brodie
Goalie: Chad Johnson
