It’s time for the next installment of our expansion draft preview series. If you missed the first installment, go take a look here. That article covered the rules for protection as well as our picks for Anaheim.
Since many people are likely wondering about Detroit, we will be getting to them soon. Mike and I are planning on doing two posts a week, with each post starting today having two teams. Obviously feel free to speculate on Detroit in these posts, but please know that we are going to be covering them in detail in a few weeks.
As a caveat for these posts, please remember that Mike and I are making our predictions based on the rosters as they stand now. Much could change between now and the deadline for teams to finalize their projections.
Also, you can always follow along by using the Capfriendly expansion draft tool. The rules are also laid out in their Expansion Draft FAQ.
So, without further ado, let’s take a look at our next two teams: Arizona and Boston
UFAs and RFAs
OK, a little further ado. Arizona has an interesting situation with upcoming UFAs. I started writing a long explanation about how we think UFAs will play out, but then I realized that it’ll probably come into play for other teams in future posts. So, I’m putting that information here for future reference.
Because of the way the rules work, a team does not have to protect a player if he’s in need of a new contract (UFA or RFA) after this season. They still could do so, to ensure that Vegas does not try to sign him to a contract in their special window before the expansion draft. But Vegas can only select 10 players in need of new contracts, and there’s no ‘double jeopardy’ on these guys – if they aren’t taken during the early access window, they aren’t exposed again with the remaining roster during the normal selection the next day.
This leads to an aspect of the protection scenarios that we have been debating for a while. When would a team protect a UFA?
Teams will usually have a pretty good idea if a player is interested in coming back. If so, they’ll try to extend him before the deadline, which means they would have to use a protection slot after they sign him. They could also protect him if they think they could work out a deal before July 1, and they want to make sure they maintain the exclusive negotiating rights.
Another scenario if they are very sure a player will re-sign would be to not protect him and plan to re-sign him on July 1.
On the other hand, if you think a player is going to test free agency anyway, you have little to lose by not protecting him. Vegas is the only team that has the advance window, and I don’t think too many people are going to give up the chance to have 30 other teams bid on their services to sign with Vegas ahead of time. The only difference could be if Vegas drastically overpays for someone, or if they can offer something like a captaincy or top line minutes.
Another possibility is that a player nearing the end of his career could see an opportunity to join the Vegas front office after finishing his career. But, there really isn’t too much that Vegas can offer that overcomes the financial advantage of July 1 for unrestricted free agents.
In short, it is in a player’s financial interest (in most cases) to wait until July 1, as someone will likely overpay for his services. So most free agents will want to wait past the Vegas signing window.
If this seems complicated, it’s because it is. RFAs are pretty easy. If you want to keep the player, protect him. Teams have much more leverage in RFA negotiations.
Arizona Coyotes
SBN Blog: Five for Howling
Daily Faceoff Current Lines: Here
Our Projected Protection Choice: 8 Skaters and 1 Goalie
Forwards
Arizona is an interesting team when it comes to the expansion draft. They only have one player who must be protected due to a No Movement Clause, and he’s a defenseman (Alex Goligoski). The Coyotes would normally protect Martin Hanzal, a pending UFA, as he’s 5th on their team in scoring and playing 1C. Like I wrote above, they don’t have to, but we think one way or another they will.
We think they will protect Hanzal, likely extending him before the deadline and using a protection slot on him. If they can’t do that, with the other players on their roster, we still think they will protect him and try to finish a contract extension.
Radim Vrbata and Shane Doan are also notable UFAs. Vrbata is their leading scorer, but he’s 35, and only has 24 points, so it’s not like he’s tearing up the league. Doan is 40. He’ll either sign another 1 year deal with Arizona or retire, most likely. We don’t think either will be protected.
Anthony Duclair is a no-brainer. Same goes for Tobias Rieder. Both players are playing on Arizona’s top line. Duclair’s contract expires at the end of this season, but he is an RFA, not a UFA, and thus probably warrants protection.
The next likely forward to be protected is Jordan Martinook. He’s is 6th on the team in scoring, and even though he’s currently on the fourth line, he’s been bouncing around the lineup, like many of the Coyotes seem to be. He’s the best of the Coyotes younger talent based on this season’s performance, so he seems to be a good pick for now.
At this point, the team has to decide if it’s worth protecting 3 additional forwards in exchange for protecting three defensemen rather than four. From looking at their AHL and NHL stats, none of their young players seem to be worth it, let alone three.
The potential exception could be new waiver pickup Alexander Burmistrov. In 23 games played for Winnipeg this season, he has zero goals and two assists. The Coyotes seem to think that he will rebound. His career high is 28 points, so he has a long way to go before the team should consider protecting him.
Defense
Alex Goligoski has an NMC and must be protected. After that, Oliver Ekman-Larsson will clearly be protected. Connor Murphy was recently playing top pair minutes with Ekman-Larsson, and at 23 with a contract running through 2023, you’d think Arizona would stick with him.
Then you have Luke Schenn and Michael Stone. Schenn has been moved up to the top pairing, while Stone is at second pair, but was listed as a fourth line winger recently. Stone is a UFA, and I don’t think they use a spot on him. Schenn was a fifth overall pick, and is still signed through another year, so we think they use that spot on him.
The Coyotes deciding to extend Stone and protect him is a very plausible scenario, but as I wrote above, they don’t have much to lose by letting him talk to Vegas for the 48 hour window, so why not do that and save a spot?
Goalie
This one is pretty easy. We predict the Coyotes will protect Louis Domingue and leave Mike Smith exposed. Smith has the better numbers, but there has been a rift growing between him and the team/management. He seems understandably fed up with playing behind the team the Coyotes have assembled as you can see here.
Or this clip, where he basically tries to fight every Stars player on the ice.
Arizona is not going out of their way to win hockey games, to put it mildly, and Smith’s 0.920 sv% is not helping matters. Add in the age difference (34 to 24) and Smith’s 5,666,667 cap hit, and Arizona would be glad if Vegas took him.
Complications
Our picks would meet the NHL exposure requirement. As it stands, there aren’t any complications or situations that need to be addressed. Depending how the rest of the year goes, Michael Stone could be protected over Luke Schenn.
Final Protected List
Forward: Martin Hanzal, Tobias Rieder, Anthony Duclair, Jordan Martinook
Defense: Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Alex Goligoski (NMC), Connor Murphy, Luke Schenn
Goalie: Louis Domingue
Boston
SBNation Blog: Stanley Cup of Chowder
Daily Faceoff Current Lines: Here
Our Projected Protection Choice: 7 Forwards, 3 Defense, 1 Goalie
Boston has 4 players on NMC’s, so that pretty much ties their hand, especially since three of them are forwards.
Forwards
David Krejci, Patrice Bergeron, and David Backes all have NMC’s. So that means that Boston can either protect one other forward or four. Losing the ability to protect three extra forwards only allows them to protect one additional defenseman, and it doesn’t make sense here. Brad Marchand is a clear protect, as well as David Pastrnak, considering they are both first line players and the team’s two leading scorers at this point.
Ryan Spooner is next on our list, which leaves one more player. When Mike and I were talking about this earlier in the year, we thought Jimmy Hayes would be the 7th forward protected, but he is having a very poor year so far with only 2 goals and 1 assist through 33 games. He had 13 goals and 16 assists in 75 games last year, so he is way off his pace from last season.
Hayes has been a healthy scratch or a fourth liner this year, so it’s unlikely that Vegas would pick him. So we are looking at Matt Beleskey for that last spot.
By protecting Beleskey, Boston would likely make Vegas choose a defenseman. Boston’s defenseman choices have higher cap hits than their forward choices, so that helps the Bruins. Additionally, Vegas needs to meet 60% of the total cap of this season while making most of their picks from 3/4 line forwards and bottom-pair defensemen, so they will likely not be too concerned about a little extra money.
Defense
Zdeno Chara has an NMC. After that, Torey Krug is a pretty clear selection. The third selection could definitely be up for debate. Top pair defenseman Brandon Carlo is exempt, so that is helpful for Boston. After that, it appears to be between Kevan Miller and Adam McQuaid. Neither player is putting up many points, but McQuaid is playing on Boston’s second pairing, while Miller is on its third. McQuaid also has a better SACF% (56 to 53.6) Another name to look at is Colin Miller, who is on Boston’s third pairing and has a 59.24 SACF% through 31 games. Also considering that C. Miller is 24 whereas K. Miller and McQuaid are 29 and 30, respectively, and the needle shifts towards Colin Miller, so he is our third selection on defense.
Goalie
Is there any question here? It’s Tuukka Rask. He’s having another stellar season and he’s still one of the top 4 goalies in the league. There’s no reason not to keep him.
Complications
As things stand, there aren’t any complications. Boston would meet all the exposure requirements if they selected the players listed above.
Final Protected List
Forward: David Krejci (NMC), Patrice Bergeron (NMC), David Backes (NMC), Brad Marchand, Ryan Spooner, David Pastrnak, Matt Beleskey
Defense: Zdeno Chara (NMC), Torey Krug, Colin Miller
Goal: Tuukka Rask
