Now that the calendar has rolled over to 2017, there’s a very specific event we all need to start looking towards in the not-so-distant-future: the Expansion Draft. Peter and I have spent some time reviewing all the teams in the league, and we’re finally ready to present to you our 100% accurate, free from flaws, guaranteed correct lists of team protections. But first, just so we’re all on the same page, let’s review the rules.
Expansion Draft Rules
Straight from the horse’s mouth, NHL.com has an article covering the basic rules teams will operate with. To summarize, teams can protect either 7 forwards/3 defensemen/1 goalie or 8 skaters/1 goalie. They have to leave unprotected 2 forwards and 1 defensemen that are under contract for the 2017-2018 season, and 1 goalie who is either under contract for 2017-2018 or is a pending RFA heading into next season.
Skaters must have played at least 40 games this season or 70 games over the past 2 seasons. Any players with a full No Movement Clause must be protected, but players with any form of No Trade Clause can be left exposed.
Las Vegas must select 14 forwards, 9 defensemen, and 3 goaltenders, with one player being selected from each existing NHL team. The total cap hit of the selected players will need to be 60%-100% of the 2016-2017 salary cap – NOT the 2017-2018 salary cap.
Unfortunately, their post leaves out a major point with relation to pending UFAs. Las Vegas will get a major jump on the UFA market, according to Pierre LeBrun, with the ability to talk to and snag up to 10 unsigned (and unprotected) pending UFAs and RFAs 2 days before the official Expansion Draft day. The limit is 10 though, since the published rules state that the Golden Knights will have to take at least 20 players that are under contract for the 2017-2018 season. Also, if a team has one of their pending UFAs or RFAs selected, they will not have another roster player taken during the formal Draft announcement on June 21st.
With all that taken into consideration, let’s jump in with both feet! Peter and I will tackle teams alphabetically by city over the next few weeks with the ultimate goal of predicting the Vegas squad, with some updates after the trade deadline and after the playoffs as necessary. We’ll start you off easy today with just looking at the Anaheim Ducks. We’ll be operating off of the player lists compiled at Capfriendly.com, where there’s a really great Expansion Draft tool you can play around with. We highly advise going there, at least to keep track of all the guys we’re going to be talking about in these posts.
Ducks Blog: Anaheim Calling
Expected Protection Scheme: 7-3-1
Forwards
Immediately, there are 3 forwards with NMCs that will have to be protected – Corey Perry, Ryan Getzlaf, and Ryan Kesler. We expect Rickard Rakell and Jakub Silfverberg to be shoo-ins for protection as well given the way they’ve started their NHL careers over the past few seasons. With 2 protection spots remaining at forward, Andrew Cogliano and Antoine Vermette make the strongest cases for protection. Cogliano is in the midst of one of his more productive seasons with 19 points thru 39 contests, and is currently occupying the top LW spot per dailyfaceoff.com. Protecting Vermette would solidify the Ducks down the middle, leaving essentially only their 4th line exposed for Vegas since second-liners Ondrej Kase and Nick Ritchie are exempt.
Defense
The only defender with a No Movement Clause is Kevin Bieksa, which the Ducks totally can’t regret handing to him. Sami Vatanen is almost assured protection, but after him it gets dicey. Peter and I are projecting Hampus Lindholm to be protected, but obviously his lackluster points production coupled with Cam Fowler’s 22 points on the top pairing could potentially complicate that. We’d still bet that Anaheim finds a way to shop Fowler before the deadline to turn in protection rosters, and it’s doubtful the Ducks want to give up on Lindholm with one down-year offensively. Lindholm is certainly making up for his absence on the score sheet with his possession numbers (54% SACF to Fowler’s 48%).
Goalie
There’s no real discussion on this one – with 4 players eligible to be protected, John Gibson is the only one who represents the present and future of the franchise in net.
Complications
There’s the potential for the Ducks to go with the 8 skaters/1 goalie protection scheme if they can’t find a suitor for Fowler and if Lindholm still deserves a spot on the roster, which he should. However, Peter and I agree that with players like Shea Theodore and Brandon Montour exempt and waiting for their shot it’s more important to protect 3 forwards and keep that core in-tact than a 4th defenseman.
Additionally, these protections don’t satisfy the exposure requirements at forward or goal – Gibson is the only goalie under team control beyond this year, and Jared Boll is the only forward currently on pace to satisfy the contract and games played requirements. The Ducks can rectify the forwards by calling up Chris Wagner and playing him for 10 games, but the easier thing to do will probably be to extend someone like Ryan Garbutt for at least a season or Joseph Cramarossa into UFA status. They’ll likewise need to sign or acquire a goalie to satisfy requirements, which could create an interesting scenario if Bernier, Hackett, and Tokarski could band together and refuse to sign – Anaheim would have to either acquire someone just for the sake of exposure, by trade or by signing someone not currently on a roster who has 2 years of professional experience, or be forced to expose Gibson (it’ll never happen, but this would be hilarious to watch unfold).
Final Protected List
At forward: Corey Perry, Ryan Getzlaf, Ryan Kesler, Rickard Rakell, Jakub Silfverberg, Andrew Cogliano, Antoine Vermette
At defense: Kevin Bieksa, Sami Vatanen, Hampus Lindholm
In goal: John Gibson
