By now, I think you all know the drill for this. Today, we’re examining the Colorado Avalanche and the Columbus Blue Jackets for Expansion Draft protections. As per usual, the Capfriendly.com Expansion Draft Tool can be found here, and links to previous entries can be found in the storystream at the bottom of the page.
But First…
To start, Peter and I want to say thanks to everyone who’s been reading these so far and thanks to everyone who’s planning on sticking with reading these to the end. We know there are going to be quite a few of these posts in addition to what we’ve planned for so far, and we want you all to know up front that we appreciate your support on all this.
I’ve personally gotten a few questions along the lines of “why go to this extent” and “why not just tackle Detroit instead of the whole league”… Well, the problem is, to properly tackle the Red Wings – that is to say, predicting not only who will be protected but also who will be taken – you really HAVE to look at the whole league. Yes, we could narrow it down to 2 or 3 probables for who will be taken, but it’s tough to be accurate when there are so many other factors that are going to go into the Vegas team choosing one player over another. Given constraints on having to pick a certain number of forwards, defense, and goalies, the best available player on any given team may not necessarily be the player taken. That holds true for Detroit, too, so that’s why we’re going for the whole thing instead of just focusing on our team.
Speaking of our team, those of you who have paid attention to our posting pattern probably already know who the next two teams are after this post (but I’m going to fill everyone else in here anyway): Dallas and Detroit. As this is a site focused mainly on news and events surrounding the Red Wings, Peter and I are going a bit wonky with the timeline and moving Dallas back one posting. This allows us to dedicate an entire post, our next post, just to the Wings and the plethora of euphoric or nightmare scenarios that could play out over the next few months. So, you know… you’ve been warned.
Anyway… ONWARD!
Colorado Avalanche
SBN Blog: Mile High Hockey
Daily Faceoff Current Lines: Here
Projected Protection Choice: 8 Skaters – 1 Goalie
Forwards
For all the skill that Colorado has wrapped up in some of these forwards, they are surprisingly without NMCs. Still, there are easy protections to be had – Nathan MacKinnon and Matt Duchene are easy protections this season, as is Gabriel Landeskog despite his relatively dull first half of the 2016-2017 campaign. Landeskog has put up some serious numbers for the past 3 seasons, so one down year shouldn’t hurt his protection status one bit.
After these 3, things get very interesting. Not to be too harsh on an old foe, but there are really only 4 guys worth protecting on this forward roster – the 3 aforementioned players, and Mikko Rantanen who is exempt from the Draft. Everyone else seems to be having a lack-luster season, and most are either trending in the wrong direction of their careers or don’t have the resume of performance built up to warrant the same forgiveness being given to Landeskog.
With 3 forwards selected and 1 key exemption off the table, Peter and I really started looking at protecting additional defensemen. Unfortunately, that group isn’t all that great aside from the top producers either (we feel your pain, Avs fans…) and our discussions ultimately left us with 1 additional forward slot open. For the last forward protection, we chose 22-year-old Mikhail Grigorenko. With age on his side and 13 points on the season, the 2nd line power play pivot has the potential to turn into a valuable piece and we think a team in Colorado’s position should keep an eye fixed on protecting future assets.
We did mull around the idea of someone like Joe Colborne, who was electric at the end of last season with Calgary. Unfortunately for Joe, the pedigree isn’t there to say that he’s capable of continuing last season’s pace and his performance this year seemingly backs that up. Rocco Grimaldi was another name we talked about, with 28 points on the year for Colorado’s AHL affiliate – the San Antonio Rampage. However, given that Grimaldi hasn’t really proved he’s a top forward in the AHL, much less the NHL, we’d bet that Grigorenko would be more attractive to Vegas and thus is more important to protect.
Defense
With an 8-1 protection scheme predicted, and only 4 forwards selected, we can math our way to figuring that 4 defensemen will be selected. 2 No Movement Clauses are in play, with Erik Johnson and Francois Beauchemin. Tyson Barrie, with 21 points thru 41 games, should be an easy protection to predict.
With the last protection spot in this scheme, we’re going with Nikita Zadorov. The 21-year-old blue-liner has only 6 points in 40 games on the season, but as with Grigorenko we’re betting on the future with this pick instead of the present. Fellow defenseman Patrick Wiercioch has a whopping 9 points on the campaign thus far, but at age 26 has probably reached more of his maximum potential already as opposed to Zadorov. Other marks against Wiercioch include his current 3rd pairing play and lack of power play time, areas where 2nd liner and 2nd power play quarterback Zadorov holds an advantage.
Goalie
Holding down the future of the Avs net, Calvin Pickard is our choice for protection. Semyon Varlamov just has not cut it this year, and arguably hasn’t played well enough to be considered starter-worthy for the duration of his time in Colorado with the exception of 2013-2014. Admittedly, Pickard’s numbers for his short career don’t seem to be THAT much better than Varlamov’s – but at the end of the day, even with his smaller sample size, the numbers are better across parts of 3 seasons. Being 4 years younger than Varlamov, we’re betting on Pickard and the future of the Avs. Again.
Complications
With these protections, Colorado needs to sign a defenseman that they can expose per the Draft requirements. Pending UFA Fedor Tyutin would work on a 1-year deal, or extending an RFA such as Wiercioch or Gelinas (provided he plays 11 more games) into UFA status would also satisfy the requirement.
Final Protected List
Forward: Nathan MacKinnon, Matt Duchene, Gabriel Landeskog, Mikhail Grigorenko
Defense: Erik Johnson, Tyson Barrie, Francois Beachemin, Nikita Zadorov
Goalie: Calvin Pickard
Columbus Blue Jackets
SBN Blog: The Cannon
Daily Faceoff Current Lines: Here
Projected Protection Choice: 7 Forwards – 3 Defense – 1 Goalie
Forwards
First, an important note on an exemption: David Clarkson, despite his NMC, has an injury exemption and does not need to be protected. That’s good for Columbus, because they already have 3 No Movement Clauses to worry about at forward – Brandon Dubinsky, Nick Foligno, and Scott Hartnell. After these 3, Brandon Saad is an easy choice for protection as the team’s top-line left wing.
Cam Atkinson, the current points leader for the Blue Jackets, is having a stellar season thus far with 41 points in 42 contests. We’ve got him protected, as well as young stud Alexander Wennberg and 1st power play unit center Sam Gagner. That fills out all 7 forward slots, but still leaves questions about what will happen to promising youngster Josh Anderson. With only 17 points on the season to date, the 22-year-old winger isn’t the cream of the Jackets’ crop but has definitely shown promise. Leaving this kid exposed could keep a few fans up at night.
Defense
No NMCs exist on the Columbus blue-line. Two defensemen immediately stand out as invaluable to the Columbus cause, though: Seth Jones and Zach Werenski. Seth Jones is a no-brainer for protection after Ryan Johansen was shipped out to bring him into town. Zach Werenski, the Jackets’ current points leader among defensemen, is exempt.
2nd pair defender David Savard probably warrants protection as a middling defender you’d rather not lose, and the big debate comes with the last protection spot on defense – Jack Johnson versus Ryan Murray. Despite 30-year-old Johnson winning the offensive production battle, we’re opting to protect 23-year-old Murray instead. Make no mistake though, Johnson is still an effective defenseman in his role on the 2nd line, and has put up 30-40 point seasons for the majority of his time in Ohio. Murray hasn’t put up those same numbers, with this season’s 5-points-in-37-games performance only accentuating that fact, but he was a lauded prospect that some expected could meet or exceed Johnson’s performances before injuries seemingly hampered him in the 2014-2015 season. This battle could come down to the wire, with playoff performances carrying significant (if not deciding) weight, but at the moment we’re protecting Murray.
Goalie
Easy as pie – Sergei Bobrovsky has a No Movement Clause to go along with his Lundqvist-esque payday. This leaves some interesting options on the table for Vegas, particularly if young net-minders Anton Forsberg or Joonas Korpisalo pick their play up a notch or two. Both have seemed to shine at times in call-ups and AHL play over last season and this season, and either could be an intriguing option left on the table for Vegas. Forsberg probably holds the edge in outside interest after Korpisalo has struggled a bit in this season’s AHL campaign, but both youngsters are very intriguing.
Complications
None – these selections meet the exposure requirements as set by the NHL. Even with a debate on Jack Johnson and Ryan Murray, the Jackets won’t have to worry about swapping pieces out for expendable assets or meeting games played requirements or signing players to exposable contracts. All they have to lose sleep over is who won’t be on the roster next season.
-Edit- As commenter Garth D correctly points out below, Gagner is a pending UFA (when writing, I incorrectly read his status as a pending RFA). At the moment, Peter and I don’t feel that this really changes his need to be protected. The power play specialist is having a great season, on pace for 60 points with 28 on the man-advantage, and the Jackets should be actively pursuing an extension before the deadline for protections is due. Even if they don’t have an extension in place at that time, it could be worth it to protect him anyway just to keep Vegas from giving him their money pitch. The wrench in the gears, though, could come from a desire by Gagner to ‘get paid’… Currently on a very team-friendly deal, Gagner’s production makes him the kind of off-season acquisition that some owner is probably dying to over-pay on dollars and term. It’s entirely possible that, if Gagner and the Jackets are far apart on contract talks, Gagner could price himself out of Columbus’ interests. If that happens, leaving Gagner exposed in favor of protecting Josh Anderson could absolutely happen.
Final Protected List
Forward: Brandon Saad, Brandon Dubinsky, Nick Foligno, Scott Hartnell, Alexander Wennberg, Cam Atkinson, Sam Gagner
Defense: Seth Jones, David Savard, Ryan Murray
Goalie: Sergei Bobrovsky
