Update 1 : I made an update to Gustav Lindstrom’s status in the Exempt section
Update 2: CapFriendly confirmed that Frans Nielsen’s NMC ended after last season.
On Tuesday, the expected news was made official: Seattle will be the 32nd team in the NHL.
The expansion draft will take place in the summer of 2021, and the team will begin play in 2021-22.
We also learned that the expansion draft will be conducted under the same rules as the previous one, when the Vegas Golden Knights entered the league.
You may remember that Mike M and I wrote a series of articles in which we looked at which players we thought each team would protect. While it’s obviously too early for that, it’s not too early to see how the team is currently set up when Seattle comes calling to take a player for Detroit.
The Rules
Like I said, they are the same as last time, but here is a quick refresher. If you want a full run down, the Capfriendly FAQ is still up from the Vegas draft.
Teams will have the option of two protection schemes.
Option 1: 7 Forwards, 3 Defensemen, 1 Goalie.
Option 2: 8 skaters (forward or defensemen), 1 goalie.
Most teams chose Option 1 last time, and Option 2 would really only apply to teams that have 4 high end defensemen.
Also, players that have no movement clauses (NMC) must be protected, although they can waive their NMC specifically for the purposes of the expansion draft. That is, after the expansion draft, they will continue to have a NMC. It’s important to note that this is only for NMCs and not for no-trade clauses (NTCs).
Players who have played two or fewer professional seasons as of the summer of 2021 are exempt. An easy way to think about that is that anyone drafted after this season will be exempt. If the Wings end up winning the lottery and selecting Jack Hughes, they WILL NOT have to use a protection slot on him.
The expansion draft uses slightly different language than the CBA to define a professional season, which last time caused 8 players to be eligible for the expansion draft who would have been exempt if eligibility followed the rules in the CBA, including Anthony Mantha.
Update: Detroit doesn’t have anyone who fits into that category, but for the sake of completeness, a professional season is defined as 10 or more NHL games for players who are 18 or 19 years old or 10 or more NHL games, AHL, or European professional league games for a player who turns 20 before December 31 the year the season begins. So, for this season December 31, 2018. This is for players who are currently signed by Detroit.
This section was updated Dec 10.
There is one last group of requirements, but at this point in time, it’s impossible to analyze if a team will have trouble meeting any of these in 2021.
A team must expose at least 2 forwards and 1 defenseman who meet the following criteria:
They have to be under contract in 2021-22
They played in 40 or more NHL games in 2020-21 OR
They played in 70 or more NHL games in 2019-20- and 2020-21 combined
A team must expose one goalie who meets the following criteria:
They have to be under contract in 2021-22 OR
They have to be an RFA going into the 2021-22 season.
Like I said above, it’s not worth spending any time worrying about this part of it. Teams have plenty of time to make sure they can expose 5 players that meet these requirements by the summer of 2021.
How Are the Red Wings Set Up?
Here are the list of players that the Red Wings currently have in their system who are signed to contracts, who will be exempt.
Filip Zadina (assuming he does not play 10 or more NHL games this season)
Jared McIsaac
Kaden Fulcher
These are the players on Capfriendly’s Red Wings roster who will be exempt. Anyone else in the system who doesn’t play 10 games this season in the NHL or 10 games this season in the AHL or a European pro league if they turn 20 before 12/31 is exempt. That includes players like Keith Petruzzelli, Joe Veleno, etc.
Update: This appears to mean that Gustav Lindstrom will be eligible to be chosen in the draft and will not be exempt. He is currently 20, under contract with Detroit, and playing in the SHL.
If Zadina plays 10 or more games this season, he will not be exempt from the draft. Michael Rasmussen has already played more than 9 games in the NHL this season, so this year will count as a professional season for him.
Before I go over who the Red Wings will have to look at protecting, it’s time to point out that Frans Nielsen, as of now, will still have a NMC entering the expansion draft.
Update: CapFriendly has confirmed that their initial understanding of the clauses in Nielsen’s contract is not correct, and his NMC ended last season.
Forwards
I am making some educated guesses about which players whose contracts will be expiring before 2021 will be here.
These are the forwards from which Detroit will have to choose 7 (not in any particular order):
Frans Nielsen
Dylan Larkin #
Justin Abdelkader
Anthony Mantha #
Andreas Athanasiou #
Luke Glendening*
Darren Helm*
Tyler Bertuzzi #
Michael Rasmussen #
Evgeny Svechnikov
Christoffer Ehn
Givani Smith
Axel Holmstrom
I put a # after the five players who I think will almost certainly be protected, barring trade or a severe drop-off in their play. Like I said above, I think there’s a very good chance Nielsen will not have to be protected.
I didn’t include Gustav Nyquist, since his contract is expiring this coming off-season. If he does re-sign with Detroit, he would be added to the list. The list assumes Athanasiou, Mantha, and Bertuzzi will sign extensions with Detroit and will not be traded prior to the summer of 2021.
* Luke Glendening’s and Darren Helm’s contracts expire in 2021-22 as a UFA. They will technically be required to be protected, although they’re certainly not going to be worth a protection slot at that point. Detroit didn’t protect them in the Vegas expansion draft, so the chances they will in the Seattle draft are virtually zero.
Justin Abdelkader was protected in the last draft, but I wouldn’t count on that happening in 2021. His play has continued to decline, and even with Ken Holland’s “loyalty decisions,” the case for several other players above him will likely be too strong to ignore. Also, Holland may very well not be making this decision.
By this time, Detroit will know what Givani Smith is going to be. Same with Svechnikov. If they develop the way the team hopes, they can be protected. If not, they can be exposed.
Defense
Danny DeKeyser
Dennis Cholowski #
Libor Sulak
Filip Hronek #
Joe Hicketts
Vili Saarijarvi
Jake Chelios
Dylan McIlrath
Brian Lashoff
Same as above, Cholowski is a lock barring some major change, and I think Hronek likely will be as well.
Depending on how players develop, this is a spot where Detroit could lose a player its fans really don’t want it to lose. The wild card here is going to be Danny DeKeyser. This past expansion draft it was obvious that the team was going to protect him. I wouldn’t be so sure about that in 2021.
It would not be surprising that one (or more) of Sulak, Hicketts, and Saarijarvi will be noticeably better than DeKeyser. Additionally, his 5m cap hit could ensure that Seattle wouldn’t be likely to pick him regardless.
Lastly, I can’t wrap this up without mentioning Saarijarvi. He hasn’t gotten a real shot yet, but he very well could rise above the other young d-men in his cohort. From what I’ve seen and read, he could be a player Detroit would be very sorry to lose.
Goalies
Jonathan Bernier*
Patrik Rybar
Harri Sateri
Like Glendening and Helm, Bernier’s contract will be expiring as a UFA. It’s really hard to make any sort of prediction about the goalie situation, since there are so many unknowns. Howard is not included here, but he would be added to the list if he signs an extension that keeps him on the roster through the expansion draft. If he were to sign a two-year extension, he would be in the same position as Bernier at the end of it.
Bottom Line
Teams have already been considering the upcoming expansion draft for a while now, although now that they have a date, they can plan more concretely.
Obviously, the roster could look quite different the summer of 2021, but Detroit looks to be in a good position. They should be able to protect their current young group of players, and anyone drafted this season or beyond will be exempt.
Regardless, it’ll be interesting to see how the roster changes between now and the 2021 expansion draft.
