The Red Wings’ season is over and, although the NHL standings aren’t yet finalized, they’re closed out for the positioning we still care about. The Red Wings finished 5th from the bottom of the league standings after the Vancouver Canucks were able to pass them late Saturday night with a point earned in a shootout loss to Edmonton.
We know that Detroit is guaranteed no later than the 8th overall. This will be their best draft positioning since the team took Keith Primeau at #3 overall in 1990, although that worst-case scenario pick would only be one slot better than the 9th overall they received last season, which the Red Wings used to take Michael Rasmussen.
In terms of their chances at drafting Rasmus Dahlin, the Red Wings have an 8.5% chance of winning that #1 overall pick, according to the lottery odds released by the league on March 28th.
Non-Playoff Team (Fewest Points to Most)
1, 18.5%
2, 13.5%
3, 11.5%
4, 9.5%
5, 8.5%
6, 7.5%
7, 6.5%
8, 6.0%
9, 5.0%
10, 3.5%
11, 3.0%
12, 2.5%
13, 2.0%
14, 1.5%
15, 1.0%
Of course, with more than just the first pick up for the pull, we’re not just looking at that lone 8.5% figure. In fact, according to the popular Tankathon website, the Red Wings’ odds of picking in the top three, when combined with the odds of all other teams of sneaking in there, come out to 26.1%
The same site also has them with a 65.5% chance of falling from their current 5th overall slot into the 6th-8th slots. Interestingly, they’re slightly more-likely to win the lottery outright than they are to stay in their current 5th overall position, with just an 8.4% chance they stay put.
The drawing will take place April 28th in Toronto.
