Well, it looked good for a while, and then bad for a while, and tipped back and forth a few more times, but ultimately Detroit fell a tiebreaker category short of the postseason, so for an eighth-straight spring, Red Wings fans are left without playoff hockey and with nothing left but to look ahead at next season.
There are plenty of takes out on the positives and negatives of the season, and I’m sure we’ll touch on all of that here in the coming months. Personally, I see this season as a step forward for the Red Wings, but some difficult decisions are ahead that will paint a better picture of where the rebuild is at.
With that in mind, let’s look at some of the decisions facing the Red Wings over the next five months. We’ll explore most of these topics in more detail this summer, but before the ball gets rolling on any of it, we’ll take a big-picture view of where things stand right now.
Payday’s coming
The most obvious offseason issue is new contracts for Lucas Raymond and Moritz Seider, who probably each did their bank accounts service with their play down the stretch. I had $16 million combined penciled in as my over/under midseason, which started to feel a bit low after seeing Detroit’s top defenseman thrive with exceptionally difficult deployment, and witnessing its young Swedish star score at a clip reserved for the league’s elite scorers.
But that’s assuming eight-year deals. Teams around the league are pushing to sign their young stars coming off entry-level contracts to the eight-year maximum deals that take them through what’s generally a player’s prime. Some player agents, forecasting future league growth, are pushing for shorter deals that open up an extra payday for their player when the salary cap is higher, as we saw with Auston Matthews’ four-year extension in Toronto.
Are deals like that one outliers, or the sign of a new trend? It will certainly be worth keeping an eye on RFA news around the league when setting expectations for Raymond and Seider.
Is the show over?
He may not have won the hearts of every fan, but there’s no denying Patrick Kane changed the trajectory of Detroit’s season. His successful recovery from an incredibly invasive hip surgery that has ended the careers of other players around the league was a notable storyline, and Detroit benefitted from getting a 20-goal scorer who still had his patented flair for the dramatic — evidenced by his team-leading seven game-winning goals — for an affordable $2.75 million cap hit.
But as soon as his post-game scrum in Montreal and continuing into his season-ending presser on Thursday, Kane made multiple comments referring to his time in Detroit in the past tense and repeatedly used “they” as if he was talking about a team other than his own. Parsing an athlete’s grammatical choices is probably not the most accurate way to analyze their intentions, and Kane’s been around long enough that I’m confident he knows how to use media coverage to his advantage. Is it a ploy to push for the multi-year deal, or is Detroit better off moving on anyway?
A cap crossroads
No matter what comes of the two or three potential extensions discussed above, Detroit’s run of summers without major salary cap concerns appears to be over. With the salary cap expected to grow to $87.7 million for 2024-25, CapFriendly currently forecasts Detroit with $28.17 in cap space. That seems like a lot, but that’s only accounting for 14 players: six forwards, six defensemen and two goalies.
The new deals for Raymond and Seider will eat up most of that, leaving around $10-12 million to fill out the rest of the roster. That seems to suggest that any offseason tinkering will need to be balanced with some contracts moving out, be it buyouts or cap-dump trades. I think Detroit’s well-positioned to do this fairly easily — only five players (Larkin, DeBrincat, Copp, Compher and Rasmussen) are under contract past the next two seasons. There will always be rebuilding teams looking for short-term help on the ice (or reaching the cap floor), where the Red Wings should have several options to free up space without paying a premium.
Who else is coming back?
Aside from Kane, Detroit’s pending unrestricted free agents include forwards David Perron, Christian Fischer, Daniel Sprong and Austin Czarnik, defenseman Shayne Gostisbehere and goaltender James Reimer. Joe Veleno and Jonatan Berggren are restricted free agents. The ~$12 million in cap space post-Raymond/Seider extensions means there are a few tough decisions ahead, and Detroit is unlikely to be as active in free agency as the past few summers.
So who has the best case to return? Perron had nothing but glowing things to say about a potential return in his media availability yesterday and could be a candidate to finish his career here, so long as he’s open to a slight pay cut. Fischer was a clear locker-room favorite who provided energy and killed penalties and could be had back on a similar deal. Sprong seemed to fall out of favor with the coaches, with his production severely diminishing as the season went on.
Gostisbehere is also an interesting case, finishing tied for 13th in points by defensemen this season. Those guys tend to get paid, but Gostisbehere has some well-known warts in his game, so I’m not sure how many GMs around the league open up the checkbook to that degree. He had trouble over the years finding the right fit, evidenced by his run in Carolina last year where he was often a healthy scratch. Maybe the Red Wings are still an option if he’s comfortable with the role he played in a situation where he can help a team win?
Wanted: Saves
Detroit has two goalies under contract for next season in Ville Husso and Alex Lyon, but it’s hard to imagine that’s the team’s tandem going into next season. Husso struggled, got hurt, returned and was re-injured in eight minutes, and then tweaked his injury further during warmups of a conditioning stint with the Griffins. Meanwhile, Lyon emerged as a savior in net for the team, but he struggled late in the year as his usage climbed higher and higher.
Detroit will have better health information on Husso than anyone guessing their plan for him, but it’s hard not to imagine another three-headed approach. The top UFA goalies include Cam Talbot, Ilya Samsonov and, oh look, Alex Nedeljkovic, who is a reminder that Detroit has looked at the trade market the last two times they swapped out their starter. They need an upgrade to keep Lyon fresh and potentially be available for long spells of starts should Husso end up on IR again.
Are we having burgers or not?
After playing 67 games in 2022-23, it was a surprise that Jonatan Berggren only saw 12 NHL games this season, influenced partially by Detroit’s decision to keep his waiver-exempt status so he could participate in the Griffins’ playoff run. Rumors began circulating that he asked for a trade, but if he did, his play in Grand Rapids has not shown it. He leads the team in scoring and has racked up some electric performances of late, and his north-south game has greatly improved after coming up as more of a perimeter player in Sweden.
He can’t return to Grand Rapids next season and needs a contract, so it’s decision time for the Red Wings. Do they not see a future for him in Detroit long-term? Or is this just a little bit of tough love to motivate him to take his game to the next level?
All eyes on West Michigan
Speaking of that, there’s certainly still meaningful hockey for Red Wings fans to follow. The Griffins are in the final weekend of the AHL’s regular season and have clinched a first-round meeting with the Rockford IceHogs. Grand Rapids was a bit rocky out of the gate but has seemed to play better and better as the year has progressed.
And while sometimes veterans can carry AHL teams, it’s largely been the growth of prospects helping the second-half surge. Marco Kasper has climbed up to center the team’s top line, generally between Berggren and Carter Mazur. Amadeus Lombardi has similarly slotted into the second-line center role, often flanked by Elmer Soderblom, who has been out of the lineup of late but is much more noticeable in the second half of the season. Simon Edvinsson is rejoining the team for the playoff run, and Albert Johansson, William Wallinder and Antti Tuomisto should also be playing big roles on the blueline. Sebastian Cossa and Michael Hutchinson have split starts most of the year, but it’s looking like Cossa is the hot hand heading into the postseason, having lost just once in regulation since Jan. 12 (15-1-6).
Fresh off a second national championship in three years, Shai Buium is making his AHL debut this weekend — not sure if he’ll see a ton of playoff action, given the depth, but he’ll at least have an opportunity to make an impression. I’m also closely monitoring Nate Danielson and the Portland Winterhawks, who are up 3-0 in their WHL second-round series to Everett. A Memorial Cup run would make for great development, but Danielson is also a candidate to join the Griffins should Portland bow out earlier.
With the cap crunch mentioned throughout this piece, a few players on entry-level deals might help to fill out the roster, so this is a great opportunity to stand out in games that management will surely be watching closely.
Other dates of note
It’s likely to be a slow trickle of news until the NHL Draft, which will be held Friday, June 28 and Saturday, June 29. Detroit’s development camp is likely to follow the week after, as it’s coincided lately with the start of free agency on July 1.
Another off-ice story worth keeping an ear open for is the plan for Traverse City. I wrote about my fondness for Hockeytown North back in September, but it was reported a few months ago that Columbus is withdrawing from the Traverse City Prospect Tournament, and Toronto may be doing the same, leaving just Detroit and Dallas in what was once an eight-team field. I’m sure the Red Wings will still hold training camp up there, but I’m not sure what the status of the Prospect Tournament is.
So that’s that… Just a few items to resolve until the team’s back next fall. Let’s hear how fans are feeling on some of these topics, and what else I missed that will be worth keeping in mind this offseason.
