Facing yet-another must-win game against yet-another fellow playoff bubble team, the Red Wings came out strong and fought back late, but ultimately dropped a 4-3 overtime decision to the Washington Capitals.
With margins being as tight as they are, it’s not worth discounting the value of the late third-period goal by Detroit to even get to overtime. Per Moneypuck’s pre-game snapshot, playoff chances are 9% higher (30.8%) with the overtime point than if they’d lost in regulation (21.7%). There’s a Jim Carrey gif for that.
But numbers are numbers, and feelings are feelings, so the loss in these particular circumstances are going to sting for fans and team alike, and the Red Wings’ real playoff chances feel like how fast they’re able to shake this off and win some tough upcoming road games against playoff teams.
Game Summary
Event Summary
1st period
Goaltending was the story of the first period, with Charlie Lindgren starring in the opening minutes, and Alex Lyon stealing the show in the second half of the frame. We’ve all been worried about Detroit’s starts as of late, but it’s hard to complain too much about this one. Thanks to an early power play, the Red Wings had the best look early — with Lindgren stretching to get a leg out on a wide-open Robby Fabbri in front. Moments after the power play ended, a loose puck popped right to Dylan Larkin in the slot, but his shot found Lindgren’s glove.
Lyon didn’t face a shot for the first half of the period and that showed with his first few saves — most goalies will tell you they like to feel the puck early — as he left a few rebounds in dangerous spots. But he was clearly feeling it by the end of the period, making a critical save on a deflection by Hendrix Lapierre from point-blank range.
2nd period
The Capitals struck first minutes into the second off somewhat of a fortunate bounce. Alex DeBrincat and Nic Dowd battled for a loose puck that rimmed around the Red Wings net, which took a hop to the stick of former Wing Nick Jensen. Jensen centered back for Dowd, who beat Lyon over the shoulder through some traffic.
It didn’t take long for DeBrincat to rebound from his bad luck, but coming off a heads-up play by Jeff Petry. Petry drove wide into the corner with the puck and just held on long enough to find a passing lane for DeBrincat, who deflected it over Lindgren and made it 1-1.
On a power play in the dying minutes of the period, the Red Wings took their first lead on an absolutely chaotic sequence. Detroit had a few good looks early in the powerplay, and after Lindgren robbed Fabbri, Larkin and who-even-knows who else with how many sticks were whacking away in the crease, the puck popped to David Perron who was just able to shove it over the line.
A critical lead, and just as important, a reward for a period where the Red Wings kept their foot on the gas with 20 second-period shots.
3rd period
That momentum did not carry into the third period, though, as Washington tied it up in the opening minute. A point shot by Martin Fehervary missed the Red Wings net but bounced right to the stick of Connor McMichael, who stuffed it into the net before Lyon got back to his post.
The Capitals retook the lead five minutes into the third after a lost defensive zone draw for Detroit. John Carlson collected the pass off the draw and fired a shot at the net. Lyon kicked it aside, but it went right to the stick of Dylan Strome who buried it to give Washington a 3-2 lead.
The Red Wings kept the pressure up fairly consistently after that and were finally rewarded with another DeBrincat-to-Kane connection. The line was able to force a defensive zone turnover by the Capitals, which DeBrincat collected and found Kane in the slot. Kane absolutely teed this one up.
Overtime
Detroit’s overtime record this season provided room for optimism, but it didn’t pay off tonight. After a tough sequence in which DeBrincat put a two-on-one feed into Moritz Seider’s skates and fell when trying to cause a turnover, Dylan Strome slipped behind everyone and tipped a Carlson pass over Lyon’s glove.
Takeaways
1. Not over ’til it’s over. I see a lot of defeat in the game thread and it’s hard to feel like I can make a convincing argument against that. But the numbers still say 30%, so I’m not ready to go there. Seeing @ Carolina, @ Florida and @ Tampa Bay to close out this road trip is certainly not encouraging, and it’s likely the Red Wings would need to go 7-3 if not 8-2 to even have a chance. But the silver lining is that that there’s reason to feel good about the teams they’re chasing.
Washington has become an analytical outlier of late (not that Detroit’s fancystats are golden, either) and could end up with the worst goal differential of a playoff team in the modern era, propped up by an incredible record in one-goal games (18-2-9). Meanwhile, Philadelphia has been sitting pretty for a while but has a coach who decided that sitting his captain and refusing to elaborate was what the team needed to get over the hump. Even though Detroit has mostly dug this hole itself, the way they’ve played over the last few has me more optimistic than either of those situations. They’re just unfortunately are playing from behind right now, leaving almost no room for error.
2. In need of a hero. I had a note going about how good it was to get DeBrincat a goal, with his recent drought and months-long struggles at 5-on-5. Now’s not the time for a retrospective, but I still like the trade to give the Red Wings a guy who can score in bunches. It ended up being a tough game for him, with a misplayed puck on the first goal and turnover on the overtime goal, but he can go a long way in living up to that contract by getting hot these last 10 games. Larkin carried this team through January, Raymond gained another level around February, and Kane seems to exclusively score game-tying and game-winning goals. Anyone going on a tear would be welcome, but your best players need to be your best players, so it would be nice to see DeBrincat fill the net here.
Your moment of zen
Petry passed up a look on an open net late in the third that I don’t think he realized he had. It may have just been the hockey gods balancing the scales 26 years later.
Next up for Detroit are the Carolina Hurricanes on Thursday at 7:30 ET.
