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Stanley Cup Final Preview & Prediction

Florida Panthers (42-32-8) at Vegas Golden Knights(50-22-9)
T-Mobile Arena (Las Vegas, Nevada)
Time: 8:00 PM EDT
TV: TNT, CBC

The History

35 inches, 35 pounds of pure silver Glory will have a first-time recipient this month. Both combatants have been to the big stage once before and have tasted only agony.

In 1992, The Walt Disney Company and Blockbuster Video were each awarded a real-life NHL franchise. The trends of those corporations match the trends of their franchises surprisingly well. Three seasons into their existence, John Vanbiesbrouck (remember him?!) pulled his team through the Eastern Conference only to get shellacked in a sweep at the hands of those Avalanche. The Panthers couldn’t even do their brand-new, still-learning-hockey fans the courtesy of a swift and merciful ending, as Game 4 went 3 overtimes. Since that ’96 Final, Florida qualified for the playoffs only seven times and won precisely zero series in the playoffs until last season. That’s a pretty rough quarter-century.

In 2017, Gary Mountain Landis Bettman openly embraced his own hypocrisy, the marriage between gambling and sports and spearheaded the establishment of the first professional sports franchise in Las Vegas. He then shamelessly gave this new franchise every other teams’ seventh-best player. That band of talented castoffs won the hearts of (mostly new) hockey fans throughout North America as they knocked out Los Angeles, San Jose, and Winnipeg to ensure Alex Ovechkin could finally lift the Cup. They won 13 playoff games that inaugural season, setting the record for the most playoff wins by an expansion team in its first playoff appearance. The previous record holder? The aforementioned ’96 Panthers.

The Recent History

What to make of these Florida Panthers? They are the 8th seed in the Eastern Conference, but dispatched the Bruins, Maple Leafs, and Hurricanes en route to the Final. They have only lost one game since the end of April, but of their 12 wins this postseason, only 2 have been by more than a one-goal margin. Their possession metrics have often been not great, but they’re riding on a totally-washed-up, way-overpaid goaltender who looks like he has the talent to win multiple Vezina trophies. And, hate him or hate him even more, but that Tkachuk guy seems to be the embodiment of those critical intangibles come playoff time.

But is it really just Tkachuk and Bobrovsky taking them this far? Honestly, it might be. As a team, they are usually chasing the puck rather than controlling it. They’re usually starting in their own zone. They’re not winning faceoffs. Even their power play hasn’t looked particularly threatening. And yet, as if a microcosm of their 2023 playoffs, they’ve twice allowed shorthanded goals, and won both of those games. What they have had is some really outstanding goaltending at times, very very timely goals (mostly from Tkachuk), and elite penalty killing (See: outstanding goaltending). Barkov has been steady as a rock as usual at 1C, and Brandon Montour has been an absolute stalwart eating up 27+ minutes per night and already generating over 100 shot attempts in the playoffs from the blue line.

The other side of the ice doesn’t exactly feature possession metrics darlings either. Get this: In Vegas’s Game 3, 4-0 victory over the Stars last series, their Even-Strength Fenwick For was 24%. That means while lopsided on the scoreboard, Vegas controlled less than a quarter of that game’s shots either missed or on goal. Aside from a handful of overtime games in these playoffs, the games Vegas has played haven’t exactly been nail-biters at the late stages. Only one non-OT game has been decided by one goal for them this postseason.

At first glance, the Golden Knights may have more offensive balance (led, of course, by Ironman Phil “Joey Chestnut” Kessel), but this balance seems to be buoyed by a team shooting percentage that is 30% higher than the Panthers’. Of the top offensive contributors for the Golden Knights this postseason, only Jack Eichel, Jonathan Marchessault, and Reilly Smith are having what some might call “sustainable performances”. Wild Bill Karlsson, Chandler Stephenson, Ivan Barbashev, and even the venerated Mark Stone have numbers absolutely screaming threats of regressing to a mean.

All That Matters Now

The Vegas Golden Knights still have that trademark above-average talent up and down their lineup, but now they have that elite talent they’ve lacked in the past in (a healthy for now?) Jack Eichel and Mark Stone. Is that the difference they’ve needed? Adin Hill has been an absolute revelation for Vegas this postseason going 7-3 with a 2.07 GAA and a .937 save percentage, and that’s with a 6-game series against the Oilers. I’m not sure if he’s trying to do a MAF or Jordan Binnington impersonation, but whatever it is, he should probably try to keep that up.

Full disclosure time: I do not like the Panthers. I despise half the men on this roster. Paul Maurice gives me that unexplainable icky feeling. I respect Sasha Barkov, but I do not like him. Probably the least detestable difference maker on this roster is Sergei Bobrovsky, and I already miss the days when he was a $10,000,000 two-time Vezina winner fallen from grace to become a League-wide laughing stock. I don’t even want Red Wings Legends Marc Staal and Givani Smith to hoist the Cup. I will always be grateful for the Bruins’ early exit and the continued misery of the Maple Leafs Fandom, but this roster going any further is a big fat no-thank-you.

The first consideration for me is the battle of the keepers. Bob and Hill have been tremendous all postseason and at times have been extraordinary. The slight edge on performance goes to Bobrovsky, and he obviously gets the edge on pedigree, but this is his first time on the big stage and I can see the pressure getting to him. Adin Hill might just have enough youthful arrogance/ignorance left to keep steady to the end.

If the goaltender gap stays closed, then in my humble opinion, this series will come down to the defense. It’s easy to like the Golden Knight’s D-Corps of Pietrangelo, Martinez, Theodore, Whitecloud, McNabb, and Hague. But if it wasn’t for Marc Staal, the edge would clearly go to Florida on this one. Forsling, Montour, and Ekblad are always capable of absolutely controlling a game, and there’s always the possibility Radko Gudas takes a top forward out for the series and only gets ‘2 for Roughing’. So this obviously all comes down to Adin Hill winning the goalie battle. No pressure kid. Don’t you dare let us down.

Michael’s Prediction

Vegas Golden Knights in 6. You can bet on it!
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